Editor’s note: The Ravens-Steelers game originally scheduled for Thursday night has been postponed for Sunday afternoon and thus is no longer part of this DFS slate.
Happy Thanksgiving! The NFL is celebrating the holiday with a three-game slate starting at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Quarterback
Stud
DeShaun Watson has been rolling recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games on DraftKings, and the lone exception was a game in Cleveland that was impacted by weather. If you take that game out of the equation, Watson has averaged 29.1 DraftKings points over his past six contests.
Watson is in another great spot this week vs. the Lions. It’s a great matchup – Detroit ranks merely 23rd in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA – giving Watson an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.0 on DraftKings. The Texans’ implied team total of 28.75 is also the top mark on the slate.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Matthew Stafford deserves some consideration for those looking to save a bit at the position. The Lions were shut out last week, but their offense was extremely shorthanded. Kenny Golladay, D’Andre Swift, and Danny Amendola all missed that contest, which left the Lions without three of their top playmakers. It seems like Golladay could miss another week – he was unable to practice on Tuesday – but Swift and Amendola are trending in the right direction.
Stafford should also benefit from a great matchup vs. the Texans. They’ve been even worse against the pass than the Lions, giving Stafford an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.9 on DraftKings.
Quick Hits
The Cowboys have been playing better as they’ve gotten healthier, and Andy Dalton was able to reap the rewards last week vs. the Vikings. He’s in a tough spot this week vs. Washington, but he should be able to lean on the Cowboys elite group of pass catchers if his offensive line can give him some time in the pocket. He’s a nice value at $6,800 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 87%.
Lamar Jackson has seen his price plummet all the way to $6,800 on DraftKings for his matchup vs. the Steelers. That represents a decrease of -$1,300 since the start of the season. The price decrease is warranted – Jackson hasn’t been good and the Steelers’ D is fantastic – but it’s still hard to ignore him at that price tag.
Running Back
Stud
Ezekiel Elliott is the highest-priced RB on the slate, and he’s coming off his first 100-yard rushing game of the season. He also scored a receiving touchdown last week, and his 22.4 DraftKings points were his highest output since all the way back in Week 5.
That said, I’m skeptical that we’ll see a repeat performance. Washington is a bit more vulnerable against the run than they are vs. the pass, but Zeke still owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.5 on DraftKings. He limped to just 6.1 DraftKings points in his first matchup vs. Washington this season, which was his worst fantasy performance of the entire season.
Zeke should also be expected to command massive ownership on a three-game slate. There are no other “stud” RBs to consider, so he should be chalky. If you are going to play Elliott, do it on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 94%.
Value
There is a ton of uncertainty surround the Ravens at the moment. They’ve had to close down their facility after several positive COVID tests, and Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins have already been ruled out.
As long as this game plays, that means Gus Edwards should carry the load in this matchup. The Steelers have been great against the run this season, but Edwards would be a really tough fade at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. He leads all players at the position in terms of projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each game where he’s received at least 10 carries this season.
Quick Hits
David Johnson is expected to miss another week for the Texans, which means Duke Johnson should continue to serve as their feature back. He hasn’t exactly thrived in that role the past two weeks, averaging 5.95 FanDuel points per game, but he’s an excellent spot this week vs. the Lions. They rank just 24th in rush defense DVOA, and Johnson owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.7 on DraftKings.
James Conner could be a sneaky option for tournaments this week. The Ravens have been strong against the run this season, but they’ve been much weaker the past two weeks with Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams out of the lineup. Damien Harris and Derrick Henry have both rushed for at least 121 yards vs. Baltimore over that time frame, so Conner can find success in this matchup. His workload is a bit troubling, but that should result in minimal ownership even on a small slate.
Wide Receiver
Stud
There are a few strong options at the top of the WR position this week, but Terry McLaurin stands out as the best. There was some concern that his production would decline with Alex Smith under center, but he’s actually increased his fantasy output over his past three games. He’s averaged 6.3 receptions for 98 yards over that time frame, and he’s also found the end zone one.
Now he gets an elite matchup vs. the Cowboys, who he torched for 22.0 DraftKings points in their first meeting this year. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.1, which is tied for the top mark at the position in our NFL Models, and he also has a sizable edge in his individual matchup according to Pro Football Focus.
Value
If Golladay is unable to suit up this week, Marvin Jones should be looking at another expanded workload. He struggled last week vs. the Panthers, but he finished with 10 targets, eight receptions, 96 yards, and a touchdown with Golladay out of the lineup two weeks ago. The Lions are due for some positive regression on offense – particularly in a great spot vs. the Texans – and Jones figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Quick Hits
The Texans WR duo of Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks should be very popular this week, especially as part of stacks with Watson. Both players are well correlated with Watson, so it’s not surprising that they’ve thrived as their QB has increased his production. Cooks has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on FanDuel, while Fuller has done it in seven of his past eight.
At least one of the Steelers WRs will likely have a big game this week, but the hard part is identifying which one it will be. Diontae Johnson has been the most consistent of the bunch recently, logging double-digit targets in four of his past five games. Chase Claypool is the big play threat, and his 10 total touchdowns are tied for the fifth-highest mark in the league. JuJu Smith-Schuster appears to have the lowest floor of the group, but he can do a little bit of everything. JuJu figures to carry the lowest ownership of the trio this week, so he might be the most appealing tournament option.
Tight End
Stud
TE has been a dumpster fire for most of the season, but the position actually has some interesting options on this three-game slate. It starts with Mark Andrews, who has turned things around after an ugly stretch in the middle of the season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games, and he’s seen at least seven targets in both of those contests.
Andrews is in a tough spot this week vs. the Steelers, but no one at the position can match his upside if he has a ceiling performance.
Value
Some expected the Cowboys to have a fantasy relevant TE this season, but no one expected it to be Dalton Schultz. He’s stepped up following the injury to Blake Jarwin and has been particularly useful over his past three games. He’s averaged seven targets over that time frame and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those contests.
Quick Hits
T.J. Hockenson is another member of the Lions who is dealing with an injury, but he is fully expected to suit up vs. the Texans. He has a chance to lead the Lions in targets if Golladay is ruled out in a juicy matchup. The Texans have struggled against TEs this season, giving Hockenson an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.4 on FanDuel. His $6,000 salary on FanDuel also results in a position-high Bargain Rating of 83%.
Watson loves to lean on his tight ends, which makes Jordan Akins an appealing option on DraftKings. He’s dirt cheap at just $2,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he finished with five catches for 83 yards last week vs. the Patriots.
