Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.
Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.
For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.
My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Bills vs. Lions Showdown
Despite a couple of bad games by his standards, Josh Allen is significantly underpriced here, which changes the complexion of this slate, in my opinion. You need a major systemic failure for the Bills guys not to get there, and that is hard to imagine against the lowly Lions’ defense without their stud corner Jeff Okudah.
In response, I am going to take a very high-risk approach on the first slate of the day here and use my smallest Captain pool of the year with Josh Allen, Gabe Davis, Stefon Diggs, and maybe Amon-Ra St Brown. I will be manually boosting the Diggs and Davis projections a bit to account for the upside they have if the majority of the production happens to funnel their way. I will still rank all captain options below.
I also love James Cook as a likely contrarian piece who the Bills have been working to get more involved lately. This could end up being a great spot to get him valuable reps, and he has shown the explosiveness needed to hit a big play that could land him in the optimal lineup.
Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider
General
- Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
- Minimum salary cap 90%
Player Correlations
- Pair Captain Josh Allen with at least two Bills pass-catchers
- Pair Captain Jared Goff with at least two Lions pass-catchers
- Consider Max one of Captain Josh Allen and Devin Singletary
- Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team.
Player Groups
- Max two kickers and defenses.
- Max one Khalil Shakir and Isaiah McKenzie
- Max one Lions tight end
Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)
Primary Targets
- Stefon Diggs
- Josh Allen
- Gabe Davis
Secondary Targets
- Amon-Ra St Brown
Large-Field GPP Fliers
- Jamal Williams
- Deandre Swift
- Dawson Knox
- Bills Defense
