The Seahawks find themselves on Thursday Night football again with a matchup in Dallas against the Cowboys. The Cowboys are listed as 9-point home favorites, while the total sits at 46.5 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
CeeDee Lamb somewhat disappointed on Thanksgiving, in my opinion, as I was expecting a monstrous performance. He caught four of nine targets for 53 yards and a touchdown, as well as converting a two-point conversion. Touchdowns have salvaged his last two performances, as he would’ve barely reached double-digit DraftKings points without the end-zone trips.
Seattle has a stout secondary, but they’ve been a little leaky as of late. Lamb also moves all around the formation, playing just over 50% of his snaps in the slot. He and quarterback Dak Prescott are the two clear top options on the slate.
Prescott stayed hot on Thanksgiving, throwing for 331 yards and four touchdowns en route to 35.24 DraftKings points. It was the fourth time in his last five games that Prescott topped 30 DraftKings points, including a 41.86-point performance against the Giants in Week 10.
However, this Seattle defense has quietly made opposing quarterbacks work for their fantasy points. Brock Purdy couldn’t get much going on Thanksgiving, totaling just 11.46 DraftKings points. That being said, they were running the ball effectively and didn’t need to go to the air too much.
Regardless, Prescott is one of the top options on the slate. These two are a priority in cash games. I have a slight lean to Lamb in the captain spot, but it’s close.
I started off the year singing Tony Pollard‘s praises due to his workload before it quickly went in the wrong direction. We’re now seeing the pendulum swing back in the right direction, as Pollard has 12 and 13 carries to go along with five and six targets over the past two weeks.
He had five single-digit DraftKings performances in the six games between Weeks 4-10 before totaling 18 and 22.3 DraftKings points in the past two weeks.
Seattle was stout against opposing backs early in the year but has allowed the third-most yards per carry over their past five games. On the year, Seattle has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs.
DK Metcalf was held in check on Thanksgiving night, catching three of nine targets for 32 yards. It was his second-lowest output of the season and only his second time failing to reach double-digit DraftKings points.
Dallas has allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers, including the second-fewest yards per game to opposing WR1s.
The positive case for Metcalf is that Dallas runs the most man coverage in the league, and he has a 35% target share against man coverage.
Geno Smith rounds out the stud section, coming off a poor performance against the 49ers. He threw for just 180 yards, throwing no touchdowns and one interception, totaling 8.3 DraftKings points.
As I highlighted last week, Smith’s struggles are almost exclusively when he’s under pressure. Sadly, Smith is likely to be under duress all night. Dallas ranks second in pressure rate, getting after the opposing signal-caller on just under 50% of their dropbacks. The 49ers and Browns have pressure rates similar to Dallas’s, and Smith had poor performances against both.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
It looks like Kenneth Walker won’t be able to suit up for Thursday night’s contest. He missed last week as well, and since he went down in Week 11, Zach Charbonnet has handled over 90% of the backfield carries and seen just over a 15% target share.
He was inefficient with his usage last week, but he saw a lot of volume. Charbonnet carried the ball 14 times for 47 yards and caught all four of his targets for 11 yards. Dallas has allowed the fourth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing backs and the ninth-fewest yards per carry.
Brandin Cooks was efficient with his targets on Thanksgiving. He caught four of five targets against the Commanders for 72 yards and a touchdown. It was his second-best fantasy performance of the season. He was held to single-digit DraftKings points in his first four games as a Cowboy but has double-digit DraftKings points in four of six games since.
The Seahawks offense stalled as a whole last week, and Tyler Lockett was no exception. He caught three of five targets for 30 yards, posting his second-lowest fantasy score of the year.
To make matters worse, Lockett has just a 19.5% target rate per route run against man coverage, compared to nearly 24% against zone coverage.
Dallas feasted on Thanksgiving, but Jake Ferguson caught just one of three targets for 35 yards. Seattle has allowed the tenth-highest catch rate to opposing tight ends, which bodes well for Ferguson. However, he’s clearly reliant on the end zone, with just one game of double-digit DraftKings points without a touchdown.
Jaxon Smith-Nijigba has made some big plays over the past two weeks, but it hasn’t led to much fantasy production. He’s likely a bit overpriced, but he has a higher target rate per route run than Lockett against man coverage, so he’s my preferred target of the two.
Michael Gallup and Jalen Tolbert round out the Dallas receiving corps, with Gallup edging him in routes run last week 15 to 13. Tolbert is my preferred option, as he has a little more juice and has a cheaper tag.
Rico Dowdle is basically reserved for builds where you expect a Dallas domination. He caught a touchdown early in last week’s game, but his role isn’t very valuable in close games.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Dallas’ defense has appeal to me due to Smith’s struggles with pressure.
- Kavontae Turpin ($2,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Turpin has been consistently schemed touches due to his speed and playmaking ability. He doesn’t see a lot of snaps, and sadly, he saw a price bump after his touchdown last week.
- Luke Schoonmaker ($1,800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Schoonmaker has seen two targets in back-to-back games, including a touchdown in Week 11. There are worse salary-saving options than Schoonmaker.
- Jake Bobo ($1,600 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Jake Bobo played just 12 snaps last week but has mixed in for some big plays in the past for Seattle.
