Thanksgiving opens with an exciting NFC North matchup between the Lions and the Packers. The Lions are listed as 7.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 47 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
Amon-Ra St. Brown unsurprisingly leads the way on this showdown slate, as he has over 100 yards and/or a touchdown in every game this season. He’s topped 20 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, with the lone outlier being a 19.8-point performance.
St. Brown didn’t do too much when these teams first played, catching five of seven targets for 56 yards and a touchdown. However, Jaire Alexander is questionable, and Rasul Douglas is no longer on the team. Also, Detroit got out to a big lead and didn’t have to rely on its passing game as much.
Green Bay runs a heavy dose of Cover-3, while St. Brown is averaging a healthy 2.89 yards per route run against the coverage.
Few players are as hot as Jahmyr Gibbs as of late, as he’s averaged 27.05 DraftKings points per game over the last four games since returning from injury. He’s still averaging 19.55 points per game if you remove touchdowns, showing that he has strong underlying usage as well.
He’s seen at least five targets in every game, with double-digit carries in three of four contests. David Montgomery missed the first two games, but Gibbs has still seen 19 and 14 opportunities over the last two contests.
Montgomery returned from injury in Week 10 and picked up right where he left off. He took 12 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers, and then parlayed 12 carries and two targets into 98 scrimmage yards and a touchdown.
Green Bay has allowed the 11th-most DraftKings points per game to opposing backs, and we all remember Montgomery’s monster performance back in Week 4. In that Thursday Night contest, he took 32 carries for 121 yards and three touchdowns en route to 37.1 DraftKings points.
Both Gibbs and Montgomery look like great clicks, with my preference being Gibbs due to his dual-threat usage.
Jared Goff is coming off of his first multi-interception game of the season, as he had three balls caught by Bears’ defenders.
Goff wasn’t needed too much when these teams first met, as Detroit skated out to a lead thanks to their ground game. He has some great numbers against Cover-3, which Green Bay deploys heavily. At this point, I prefer St. Brown and Gibbs to Goff, but there’s no denying that Goff is a great option on this slate.
Finally! A Packer! Jordan Love comes in as the fifth-highest-priced player on this showdown slate and is far too cheap. He’s played well as of late on Green Bay’s three-game winning streak and is coming off a 23.88-point performance against the Chargers.
The Lions rank fifth in pressure rate, and Love averaged just 3.4 yards per attempt under pressure in Week 4. When kept clean, he threw for 198 yards, averaging 9.0 yards per attempt. The Packers’ offensive line has been playing better as of late, and this offense is trending in the right direction. If they can keep him upright, he should have no issue against this lackluster secondary.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Jayden Reed leads the way for Green Bay skill position players with double-digit DraftKings points in four of his last five games, including 19.4 and 19.2 in his last two. He’s seeing a lot of schemed usage, as he had three carries last week. He only has one game on the year with less than three targets, as he’s averaging 5.1 per game. He’s averaged 8.7 DraftKings points per game without touchdowns.
Note: Reed (chest) was added to the Packers’ injury report on Tuesday.
Aaron Jones is likely to miss this contest, which means we’ll likely see a heavy dose of AJ Dillon. Dillon is also battling a groin injury, and third-stringer Emmanuel Wilson is set to miss this game as well. Green Bay signed Patrick Taylor back to the practice squad, but he’s currently not in the DraftKings player pool.
The Packers’ backs were very inefficient when these teams last played, as Detroit has been stellar on the ground. Dillon has been inefficient with his touches, and Detroit has allowed the third-fewest yards per carry and fourth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing backs. Dillon isn’t likely to be efficient, but he should see strong volume.
Sam LaPorta had a solid performance the first time these teams played, catching four of five targets for 56 yards all in the first half. Detroit was able to just salt the game away in the second half, so LaPorta only ran five pass routes.
Gibbs’ increased usage in the passing game has been at LaPorta’s expense, but he’s still running a route on over 80% of the team dropbacks and is an important part of the offense.
There are quietly only two receivers in the entire NFL with more receiving touchdowns than Romeo Doubs. Doubs has found the end zone in four of his last five games, with double-digit DraftKings points in four of five as well. He’s reliant on finding the end zone, as he only has one game of double-digit DraftKings points without a touchdown. Albeit, that game was back in Week 4 in this same matchup.
Christian Watson keeps seeing his price decrease, and I remain ready to catch the falling knife. The Packers’ injury report is as long as a CVS receipt this week, and Watson will remain a near-every-down receiver and need to see some work. This Lions’ secondary is prime to be beaten over the top, and Watson sees almost a third of his targets over 20 yards downfield. I’m going right back to the well. It is the dryest well of all time, but I’m going back to it.
Jameson Williams has seen his role increase as he’s gained the trust of his coaches and teammates. He saw three targets last week, catching two balls for 44 yards and a touchdown. He ran a route on a season-high 66% of the dropbacks, and the Packers have allowed the second-highest catch rate to receivers more than 20 yards downfield.
Luke Musgrave has a lacerated kidney, and Josiah Deguara is likely to miss, which thrusts Tucker Kraft into a far bigger role at a far too low price. He makes a lot of builds work, and Detroit has been middling against opposing tight ends.
Jameson Williams’ increased usage has taken some snaps away from Josh Reynolds, who ran a route on 71% of dropbacks last week, his lowest rate of the season.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options may appear to be more optimal.
- Samori Toure ($800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): With Dontayvion Wicks likely out, Samori Toure will be the WR5 and likely see more run. He’s a viable punt option to make builds work, although I prefer his cheaper teammate.
- Malik Heath ($200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): Speaking of the cheaper teammate, Heath supplanted Toure as the WR5 and will slide to the WR4 role with Wicks out. He saw a season-high snap share and his first career target last week.
