The Turkey Day action continues in the afternoon with the Cowboys and Commanders. The Cowboys are listed as 12.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 48.5 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your DFS lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
CeeDee Lamb leads the way, as he’s been lighting it up as of late. He had 44.0, 32.1, and 42.5 DraftKings points in Weeks 8-10 before cooling off with a 16.5-point performance last week.
His matchup couldn’t be better, as Washington is allowing the second-most yards per target and third-most yards per catch, as well as the highest touchdown rate to opposing receivers. I’ve been consistently targeting WR1s against them, and this week is no different.
Dak Prescott had a similarly scorching-hot Week 8-10 and is playing some of his best football. We just saw Tommy DeVito light up this Washington secondary, while the likes of Tyrod Taylor, Geno Smith, and Desmond Ridder have all found success against Washington. Prescott is the top overall option on the slate.
Sam Howell has quietly put together a solid stretch, with at least 20 DraftKings points in four straight games, including a 34.98-point performance against Philadelphia. His fantasy day was saved by 35 yards on the ground and a rushing touchdown, as he averaged just 5.7 yards per attempt through the air and threw three interceptions.
Howell now matches up with a Dallas defense that boasts the highest pressure rate and second-highest sack rate in the league. He’s still one of the top options, as he’s a quarterback on a showdown slate, and Washington has such a high pass rate. However, the matchup is worrisome.
My good friend Tony Pollard had a beautiful 22-yard touchdown run that salvaged his day, as he totaled 18 DraftKings points. It’s a little worrisome, as the matchup with Carolina was about as good as it gets. He’s not as explosive as in years past, and his volume has been a little down. He’s my third favorite of the Dallas Studs.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Antonio Gibson was limited at Tuesday’s practice, and his status is worth monitoring when it comes to Brian Robinson Jr. Robinson’s passing game usage has been essential over the past two weeks, with 15 total targets. It’s hard to expect a lot of efficiency on the ground here, as Dallas has allowed the eighth-fewest yards per carry to opposing backs.
Robinson Jr. is a little expensive but still viable if Gibson misses. If Gibson suits up, he’d likely be off of my radar.
It’s been a rough year for Terry McLaurin, who has career lows in yards per game and target rate per route run. Dallas has been stout against WR1s and boundary receivers, and McLaurin checks both of those boxes. Still, Washington always leans heavily on the pass, and potentially even more so as they’re nearly two-touchdown underdogs. McLaurin could see a heavy dose of volume.
Brandin Cooks had a breakout game in Week 10, catching nine of 10 targets for 173 yards and a touchdown. He only saw four targets last week, showing his boom/bust profile. He’s far more appealing to me on the three-game main slate than the showdown, as he’s fairly expensive for the showdown slate. He reminds me of Gabe Davis on showdown slates. If Cooks is low-owned, he’s a great tournament option. If people are flocking to him, I’ll have none of it.
Jake Ferguson saw his streak of double-digit DraftKings point scores end last week, catching three of five targets for 32 yards. He’s started to build up a solid connection with Prescott, while Washington has allowed the 11th-most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends. He makes a lot of sense in the midrange in Prescott stacks.
Jahan Dotson has been a fairly touchdown-dependent play, and this matchup doesn’t bode well for him. He has just a 14% target rate per route run against man coverage, which is the lowest of all Washington wideouts. I far prefer Curtis Samuel, who is cheaper and has the highest target rate per route run against man coverage of the Washington receivers at 19.8%.
Logan Thomas has seen five or more targets in five straight games, with eight in two contests. The Cowboys have allowed the highest touchdown rate to opposing tight ends, and the middle of the field is the path of least resistance against Dallas. Thomas is a solid option, as he might go overlooked compared to the kickers and defenses.
Michael Gallup has seen his route participation dwindle, taking him off of my radar, especially at this price.
Rico Dowdle is a little too expensive, but if you expect Dallas to absolutely throttle Washington, he should see a heavy amount of blowout run. He’s seen 12 and 10 opportunities in massive blowouts the past two weeks.
If Antonio Gibson suits up, I like him as a value option. Howell targets running backs at a high rate, and they’ll likely be leaning on the passing game heavily in this spot. Gibson had at least five targets in three straight games prior to his injury.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Jalen Tolbert ($2,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Jalen Tolbert has seen his route participation increase, running a route on 40% of the dropbacks last week. He has a 21.7% target rate per route run and is very cheap.
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($2,000 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): If Gibson misses, we can rely on Chris Rodriguez Jr. to spell Brian Robinson and mix in for a handful of carries and targets.
