The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jared Goff vs. Chicago Bears – $6,500 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Get the turkey started and settle in for an early show this Thanksgiving as the Lions’ dominant offense takes on the Bears. In a 50/50 aggregate of Sean Koerner’s projections and THE BLITZ projections, Goff has the highest ceiling projections on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he’s much more affordable compared to his salary on FanDuel.
The Lions offense has been a juggernaut, but often, the run game has been the source of most of the touchdowns. Goff did have a monster game against the Jaguars two weeks ago with 37.6 DraftKings points on four touchdowns and 412 passing yards.
He has thrown for 240 yards or more in each of his last three games and six of his last eight games. He also has multiple touchdown tosses in six of those eight games and has averaged 20.0 DraftKings and FanDuel points per game during that stretch.
The Bears gave up 330 passing yards and two touchdowns to the Vikings last week and have allowed eight QB passing or rushing touchdowns in their last six games. On the season, they’ve been one of the toughest QB matchups but not nearly as much recently.
Goff and the Lions are a great offense to build around in this matchup, and he’s especially easy to work with at his price point on DraftKings.
Top Value: Caleb Williams at Detroit Lions – $5,300 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
The Bears will try to spoil the Lions’ Thanksgiving plans, and rookie Caleb Williams is a strong value option to consider on the other side of the early game, which does have the highest over/under of the day. Williams has the top Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback in the aggreate projections on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel.
Williams and the Bears hit a low point two weeks ago in a home loss to the Patriots, but they have looked significantly better in two games since then with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown at the controls. He posted under 11 DraftKings points in three straight games before the change but then produced 16.24 DraftKings points against the Packers and looked very strong with 29.9 DraftKings points against a tough Vikings squad last week.
In that game, Williams threw for 340 yards, his second-highest total of the season while also throwing two touchdowns and running for 33 yards. His two touchdown throws snapped a streak of four straight games without a touchdown throw after the bye week.
Given the fact that the Bears will likely be playing from behind against the high-scoring Lions, Williams should be in a position to air it out and try to make big plays. Getting his high ceiling as part of the second tier of QBs on Thanksgiving definitely sets him up to be the best value QB play on Thursday’s slate.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Jacobs vs. Miami Dolphins – $7,000 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
There are plenty of star running backs to choose from on Thanksgiving with De’Von Achane and Josh Jacobs going head-to-head in the late game after the tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery try to power the Lions past the Bears in the early game. Jacobs is cheaper than Gibbs and Achane on both DraftKings and FanDuel and has actually been the most consistent of the three. He has the second-highest ceiling projection on both sites in Koerner’s projections and the highest in THE BLITZ projections on FanDuel.
Jacobs is coming off his best game of the season after scoring three touchdowns last week against the 49ers on his way to 31.6 DraftKings points. He has six touchdowns in the last four weeks and has rushed for at least 75 yards in five straight games.
Jacobs has enhanced his value by becoming a large part of the passing game as well. He didn’t have a catch on Sunday but did haul in multiple passes in four of his five previous games and posted a season-high 58 receiving yards in Week 11’s win in Chicago. His extra receiving work has resulted in 20+ DraftKings points in four of the last five weeks.
As the workhorse back in Green Bay, his workload is a little more secure than Gibbs or Achane, so the fact that he saves a little salary while still bringing consistently high production gives him a slight edge over Gibbs and Achane on Thursday’s slate, although all three are great plays with slate-smashing potential.
Top Value: Rico Dowdle vs. New York Giants – $5,500 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
The middle game of Thanksgiving’s tripleheader lacks some of the excitement of the first and last games of the day, but there are definitely some solid fantasy options to check out as the Giants visit the Cowboys.
Over the last few weeks, Rico Dowdle has clearly become the Cowboys’ go-to running back. he played 50% or less of snaps In the first six weeks of the season before Dallas’s bye week but has played 49% or more in each of the last four weeks. He finished last week’s win in Washington with 19 carries for 86 yards and caught all three targets for 12 more yards and 11.8 DraftKings points.
Dowdle has multiple catches in six straight games and has the ability to make big plays whenever the ball is in his hands. The Cowboys should rely on him heavily again this week against the Giants, who have allowed five running back touchdowns in the last three weeks and have given up over 110 rushing yards to the position in five straight contests.
He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs in Koerner’s projection and the second-highest in THE BLITZ projections behind only Jacobs.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Chicago Bears – $8,000 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
While there is some variance between the projections sets at QB and RB, both Koerner and THE BLITZ are in on Amon-Ra St. Brown as the top ceiling play at WR. He has the highest median and ceiling projection on both sites in both projections.
St. Brown teamed up with Goff two weeks ago and finished with 41.7 DraftKings points against the Jaguars by hauling in all 11 of his targets for 161 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Last week, he caught 6-of-7 targets for 62 yards against the Colts.
On the season, he has caught an impressive 83% of passes thrown his way with an average of 7.8 targets per game and 67.9 receiving yards per game as a result. He’s also just one touchdown from double-digit scores after catching nine touchdowns in nine games dating back to Week 3.
The Lions did list ARSB as a non-participant in Monday’s walkthrough due to a knee injury, which is a new concern for the star receiver. As long as that doesn’t become more of an issue, he should be set to feast on the Bears in the early game and is a strong stack to consider with Goff. If he ends up missing the game, Jameson Williams ($6,100), Kalif Raymond ($3,400), and Sam LaPorta ($4,100) would all get big boosts in targets and value.
Top Value: Keenan Allen at Detroit Lions – $5,100 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
In the 50/50 aggregate projection, Allen has the top projected Plus/Minus of all receivers on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind Jameson Williams, who has a 99% Bargain Rating on that site. Allen has an 85% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he’s priced just over $5,000.
Allen caught one of Caleb Williams’ two touchdown passes last week and finished with 23.6 DraftKings points–his highest total of the season. He has been consistently very involved in the offense with at least four receptions in four straight games, which gives the veteran a relatively high floor to go with his high ceiling. He had 15 targets last week and has averaged 7.9 targets per game this season.
The Bears will probably have to go pass-heavy to keep up with the Lions, so look for Allen to continue to get plenty of targets from Williams. The Lions have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, so Allen gets a good matchup on Thanksgiving.
Alternative WR values on DraftKings, including Christian Watson of the Packers and Wan’Dale Robinson of the Giants. On FanDuel, Williams, Rome Odunze, and Robinson are all highly rated while KaVontae Turpin brings boom-or-bust big-play potential for the Cowboys against the Giants.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Jonnu Smith at Green Bay Packers – $4,300 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
Smith has the highest median projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the 50/50 aggregate projection while Sam LaPorta has slightly higher ceiling projections on both sites, even with Amon-Ra projected to play. If St. Brown sits, LaPorta would be an even stronger option at the position since he’d be set up for more targets, and he’d then be my top ceiling play instead of Smith. At this point, though, Smith has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and is my favorite play at the position.
While Tyreek Hill has been surprisingly quiet, Smith has emerged as a key contributor in the Dolphins passing game. He has at least six targets in six of his last seven games and has outproduced salary-based expectations in six of his last seven as well. He had two touchdowns and 101 yards in Week 11 against the Raiders on his way to 28.1 DraftKings points and followed that with 19.2 DraftKings points against the Patriots last week, hauling in a season-high nine catches for 87 yards and another touchdown.
In the same matchup last week, George Kittle had 82 yards and a touchdown last week, and opposing tight ends have averaged 57.5 yards per game on the season against Green Bay. Playing Smith in this matchup should be a great way to enjoy your dessert during the late game.
Top Value: Cole Kmet at Detroit Lions – $3,600 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Kmet has been very boom-or-bust this season, but he does bring a lot of upside given his very affordable salary. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end in the aggregate projections on both sites.
Last week, Kmet left briefly with an injury but was able to return and finish with seven catches on 10 targets for 64 yards and 13.4 DraftKings points. When the Bears have had to throw a lot, Kmet is involved enough to be a great play, as he showed with 25.7 DraftKings points in Week 3 and 24.0 DraftKings points in Week 6.
The risk with Kmet is that he does sometimes almost entirely disappear. Aside from those three spice games, he has not reached double-digit fantasy points in any week. Before last week’s big game, he only totaled six catches over the previous four weeks for a total of 69 yards. Kmet could be a bargain steal if the Bears have to throw a lot, but he could also be a bargain bust if he has a down game.
Luke Schoonmaker could end up being a safer value play if Jake Ferguson (concussion) isn’t able to return, but stay tuned for further updates before making a call on the Cowboys TE this week.
