NFL Trend of the Week
With the fifth week of the NFL season behind us, we finally have a decent amount of new information to study. Statistics and theories from the 2015 season can be safely pushed aside as we dive into more current data. One great way to do this is to utilize the Fantasy Month filters in the Trends tool. We’ll do just that and examine some quarterbacks heading into Week 6 with high-scoring matchups at home.
Projections > Proj Pts > 4 to 27.5
Starting with a minimum of four projected points eliminates backups from our results and establishes a DraftKings Plus/Minus baseline of +2.01.
Fantasy Month Filters > Month Upside > 25 to 100
The Month Upside filter tracks the percentage of games a player exceeds his salary-based expected output by one-half of a standard deviation. Predictably, setting this filter to 25 percent and above increased the Plus/Minus baseline.
Now that we’ve narrowed down the results to quarterbacks who have exceeded expectations so far this season, let’s add a couple more filters specific to the upcoming week.
Vegas Filters > Total > 46 to 58
Games with high Vegas point totals are always a solid place to find DFS producers. By setting the Vegas total to a minimum of 46 points, our baseline has increased to +2.86.
Team Filters > Home / Visitor > Home
Home is where the heart is the fantasy points are. Simply narrowing our filters to quarterbacks playing at home made a major impact on the baseline, increasing it to +3.88. The Consistency got a considerable bump as well (63.3 percent), while ownership remained very reasonable (7.3 percent).
For those curious, selecting “Visitor” in this step drops the Plus/Minus (+1.93, below the baseline), lowers the Consistency (59.4 percent), and actually increases ownership (7.6 percent).
Current Matches
There are a handful of solid quarterback options that fit our trend’s criteria in Week 6. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are the two highest-priced options of the group, but they are always strong bets to return on their required investment.
If playing the Monday night slate, Carson Palmer ($6,000) looks to be a valuable mid-range option; he faces a New York Jets defense that has been consistently torched through the air thus far. For the main slate, Derek Carr ($6,500) is another mid-range option but faces a tougher matchup against the Chiefs.
Lastly, Brian Hoyer ($5,800), Ryan Tannehill ($5,400), and Brock Osweiler ($5,400) are all lower-priced options that should throw a lot at home this week. Of this group, Osweiler appears to have the juiciest matchup, facing one of the league’s worst pass defenses in the Indianapolis Colts. They gave up nearly 400 yards to Hoyer last week.
