Boom Fantasy offers unique non-salary contests that require participants to engage in a series of player propositions. Success in these contests is predicated on the ability to predict player performance as well as market investment.
Boom is offering contests for the Week 7 Sunday Night Football Falcons-Patriots Super Bowl rematch. Let’s break this bad boy down.
Falcons at Patriots
As I write this on Sunday, the game has a high over/under of 56.5 points. It has moved up 2.5 points since opening with 70 percent of the tickets on the over. The spread tickets are split almost evenly (53/47) with a slight majority of the bets going to the home favorite Pats, who have seen the spread move from -4.5 to -3.0. Translation: The Falcons have had some positive reverse line movement. The Pats are implied for a robust 29.75 points; the Falcons 26.75.
Although the Patriots and Falcons both have high-scoring (top-12) offenses — the Pats are averaging 28.7 points per game (PPG); the Falcons, 24.2 — it’s worth noting that this season both teams have underperformed their Vegas expectations: The Pats have a -0.21 Vegas Plus/Minus, and the Falcons have a -3.90. At the same time, both teams have fungible defenses: The Pats are allowing teams to outperform their implied totals by 5.71 PPG; the Falcons, 0.60 PPG.
In case you forgot, the Super Bowl was a high-scoring affair that hit 56 points in regulation and 62 in overtime — despite a 0-0 score after the first quarter.
Question 1: Tom Brady (NE) vs. Matt Ryan (ATL)
Which player will have more passing yards on Sunday? +25 points per passing yard
- Tom Brady (NE) – Most: +3,400 points
- Matt Ryan (ATL) – Most: +6,800 points
In case you are uncertain as to how scoring works: Each player accrues 25 points for each passing yard he gets. On top of that, he will get a bonus if he outproduces the other player(s) in the prop. If Brady has more passing yards than Ryan, he gets +3,400 points for his bonus. If Ryan wins, he gets a bonus of +6,800 points. If they tie, both players get the bonus. Be sure to consult the rules and guidelines on Boom for more information.
In thinking about this prop — and basically any Boom prop — you need to ask yourself these questions (or questions like these):
- Which quarterback is likelier to have more yards passing?
- How much likelier is he than the other guy to have more yardage? (Or how many more yards is he likely to have?)
- What percentage of participants in this contest are likely to pick the guy with higher odds?
Based on the bonus, Boom is saying that Brady is two times as likely as Ryan to have more passing yardage. On the one hand, this makes sense: In the Super Bowl, Brady passed for 466 yards; Ryan, 284. And this year Brady leads the league with 326.5 yards passing per game while Ryan has regressed from an average of 309.0 last year to 271.4 this year. On the other hand, Brady and Ryan are much closer as yardage accumulators in the long term. In the post-Aaron Hernandez era (since 2013), Brady has 297.1 passing yards per game when Rob Gronkowski is active; 297. 5 as a favorite. In the “Julio Jones is a Pro-Bowler” era (since 2012), Ryan has 297.5 yards per game when Julio is active; 299.7 as an underdog.
It’s also worth noting that, although Ryan has regressed this year he has one of the best matchups in this league, as the Pats defense is 30th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). In fact, the Pats have allowed Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, and Josh McCown to combine for an average of 338.2 passing yards per game against them this year.
- That’s more than Brady’s 326.5 this year.
- All six of those quarterbacks hit the 300-yard threshold.
We’re projecting Brady to have more yardage than Ryan, but not by much — and we’re projecting them for a similar number of attempts. Recency bias might push a supermajority of the field toward Brady, especially since this game is in Foxborough. Picking Ryan here could provide significant leverage on the field plus the extra points Ryan gets as a dog if he wins the bonus.
Question 2: Rushing Yards
Which of these players will have the most rushing yards on Sunday? +100 points per rushing yard
- Devonta Freeman (ATL) – Most: +6,100 points
- Mike Gillislee (NE) – Most: +8,100 points
- Terron Ward (ATL) – Most: +9,100 points
- Dion Lewis (NE) – Most: +14,700 points
This one is intriguing. Although the Pats have been the third-most generous team to fantasy running backs this season, much of that production has come via the passing game. In rushing yards allowed to opposing backfields, the Patriots have been about average this year with 90.8 yards per game. The Falcons have actually been a little more generous with 92.4 yards per game allowed to opposing running backs.
Freeman is the clear favorite to win this prop. He’s averaging 70.6 yards per game this year and has only one game of fewer than 58 yards. Since his breakout in 2015 he’s averaged 69.1 yards per game; 62.6 as an underdog. In the Super Bowl, Freeman had 75 yards on just 11 carries. Lewis, however, is intriguing. Even though Gillislee is the lead back for the Patriots and yet to have fewer than 10 rush attempts in a game, he’s averaging only 3.7 yards per attempt, and over the last two weeks his attempts have decreased (14.25 per game, Weeks 1-4; 11, Weeks 5-6) as Lewis’ attempts have increased (3.0, Weeks 1-4; 9.0, Weeks 5-6). Lewis is averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season and has more yards rushing than Gillislee in each of the last two games: 53 vs. 52 (Week 5), 52 vs. 44 (Week 6).
Freeman makes a lot of sense at this spot, but Lewis is an acceptable contrarian option given his emergence in New England’s backfield and all the extra points he’s getting as an underdog.
Question 3: Receiving Yards
Which of these players will have the most receiving yards on Sunday? +100 points per receiving yard
- Danny Amendola (NE) – Most: +7,400 points
- Austin Hooper (ATL) – Most: +8,000 points
- Mohamed Sanu (ATL) – Most: +9,200 points
- Chris Hogan (NE) – Most: +10,400 points
It’s bizarre that, based on the bonus point totals, Amendola has the best odds and Hogan the worst odds to win this prop. Amendola has been a great injury fill-in for Julian Edelman. In his 12 Patriots games without Edelman, he has averaged 7.4 targets for 53.3 yards per game. This year, Amendola has 61.4 yards per game but has topped 50 yards in just two of five games. Amendola has a high yardage floor but limited ceiling. In comparison, Hogan has a higher ceiling: He’s hit 60 yards in four of six games. He also has the potential to lay some eggs — eight yards on five targets in Week 1; 19 yards on four targets last week — but only once this season has he been targeted fewer than five times. It’s incredible that Hogan has the most potential bonus points. Hogan will match up with cornerback Desmond Trufant for some of his routes, and that’s not an easy assignment, but Hogan also lines up all over the formation. At some point he’ll have an exploitable matchup. He leads the Pats with 129 yards after the catch.
Question 4: Receptions
Which of these players will have the most receptions on Sunday? +1,000 points per reception
- Julio Jones (ATL) – Most: +6,700 points
- Brandin Cooks (NE) – Most: +7,300 points
- James White (NE) – Most: +9,300 points
- Tevin Coleman (ATL) – Most: +14,200 points
In 2015, Julio had a gargantuan 12.7 targets per game; this year, he has 7.4. With new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, Julio is not getting consistent opportunity — and the Pats held Julio to 87 yards on four targets in the Super Bowl. Given that he has the fewest potential bonus points, Julio’s risky. Since last season he’s averaged 5.7 receptions per game. As for Cooks, he’s a yardage accumulator but not a prolific pass catcher. He’s sixth in the league with 78.7 yards per game — but he’s averaging just 4.0 receptions per contest. He’s yet to have more than nine targets or six receptions in a game with the Pats.
Since last season, Coleman has been used regularly as a receiver out of the backfield. Last year he averaged 2.4 receptions per game; this year he’s averaging 2.8. As an underdog he’s averaged 3.4 targets per game. Against the Pats he had only one reception in the Super Bowl, but they’ve been especially bad against running backs this year, ranking 28th in pass DVOA against the position. No team has allowed more receptions to running backs than the Patriots with their 7.2 per game.
As for White, he leads the team with 42 targets and 33 receptions. In his 21 games with Brady since last season, White has 6.2 targets and 4.7 receptions per game. This year, he has seven targets and 5.5 receptions per game. He has at least eight targets and seven receptions in half of his games. Like the Patriots, the Falcons are bad in pass defense against backs, allowing 6.4 receptions per game to opposing backfields. Last year they were the worst in the league with 8.8 receptions per game allowed. I probably don’t need to remind you of this, but White had a career-high 14 receptions when he played the Falcons in February.
Given that Jones and Cooks traditionally rely more on yards than receptions for their production, and given that the Pats and Falcons are bad in pass defense against backs, there’s probably an edge to going with White or Coleman: Not only could they outproduce Jones and Cooks but they have larger potential bonuses and could have less exposure in the field.
Question 5: Total Touchdowns
Which of these players will have the most total touchdowns on Sunday? +6,000 points per touchdown
- Rob Gronkowski (NE) – Most: +6,100 points
- Devonta Freeman (ATL) – Most: +7,400 points
- Danny Amendola (NE) – Most: +10,000 points
- Taylor Gabriel (ATL) – Most: +14,800 points
Last year Gabriel scored seven touchdowns as a pet player in Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system. This year he has 26 targets, one rush attempt, and one touchdown. Amendola has 32 targets and a touchdown. Neither of them is a reliable scorer. Gronk and Freeman, however, are total studs. Since entering the league in 2010, Gronk leads all players with 73 total touchdowns despite missing 25 games. Since entering the NFL in 2014, Freeman leads all running backs with 34 touchdowns. This year Freeman has five touchdowns in five games, and the Pats have allowed six touchdowns to running backs in six games — but Freeman since his 2015 breakout has historically scored far fewer touchdowns as a dog (0.54 per game) than a favorite (1.08). Gronk has four touchdowns and five targets inside the 10-yard line in five games — but the Falcons defense is one of five units yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end. That said, Gronk is a matchup-proof player. If the Pats want to funnel targets to Gronk, he’s likely to get a touchdown.
Relative to Amendola and Gabriel, Freeman and Gronk have way higher odds of scoring a touchdown than their bonus totals suggest. Of course, they will have higher ownership, but this is probably a spot where production value outweighs market ownership.
Question 6: Passing TDs/3PM
Which of these will there be the most of? +3,000 points per passing TD/3-pointer made
- Tom Brady, Passing TDs (NE) – Most: +7,000 points
- Matt Ryan, Passing TDs (ATL) – Most: +10,700 points
- Jrue Holiday, 3-Pointer Made (NOP) – Most: +8,600 points
- Jordan Clarkson, 3-Pointer Made (LAL) – Most: +8,900 points
To make this contest compliant with the 2006 Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, Boom has added players from another professional event (the Pelicans-Lakers game) to this contest. Because this event is an NBA game, there could be a substantial opportunity to gain leverage on the field. Most people playing this contest are doing so because they’re NFL fans who want to participate in an NFL contest. As a result, even if they’re familiar with the NBA and can evaluate across sports, they might ‘anchor’ to the NFL players and invest in the quarterbacks more than they should. Because of that, the game theory optimal move is almost certainly to pick one of the shooters.
On top of that, the shooters probably have more upside. Look at their game logs in our NBA Models. Holiday attempted six 3-pointers in his last game. If he were hot, he could’ve hit four or five of them. Brady always has the potential for a four- or five-touchdown game — but it’s likelier that Holiday or Clarkson will get hot and hit eight three-pointers than that Brady will score eight touchdowns. Holiday and Clarkson just have so many more opportunities (possessions) per game. If you’re shooting for upside, strongly consider Holiday and Clarkson, especially since they are getting extra bonus points and (theoretically) likelier to have lower ownership.
Question 7: Ron Gronkowski, Receiving Yards
How many receiving yards will the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski have on Sunday?
- Within +/- 3: +30,000 points
- Within +/- 10: +20,000 points
- Within +/- 20: +10,000 points
This year Gronk is averaging 80.2 yards per game, which Boom highlights in its accompanying stat section. Additionally, the number that automatically appears in the selection box is 80, which I think people will unconsciously use as an anchor. As a result, most of the selections could be within a few points of that number, thereby providing an edge to people who pivot. In choosing a number you want to be accurate — but you also want to select an integer less likely to be selected by many in the field. It’s worth noting that if you discount Gronk’s worst performance this year (Week 1), his average is 92 yards per game. If you remove Gronk’s best performance (Week 2), his average is 71.3. In the post Hernandez-era, Gronk has averaged 76.7 yards per game, and we have him projected for a few yards less than that. Whatever number you settle on, it’s probably best if you try to get out of the shadow of 80.
Question 8: Julio Jones, Receiving Yards
How many receiving yards will the Falcons’ Julio Jones have on Sunday?
- Within +/- 3: +30,000 points
- Within +/- 10: +20,000 points
- Within +/- 20: +10,000 points
This year Julio is averaging 61.2 yards per game, and the number automatically populating the selection box is 61. In February the Pats allowed Julio to get 87 yards on four targets, and in the half-decade before this season (2012-16) he averaged an unreal 100.8 yards per game. The Patriots are 31st in pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers. In Julio’s 11 contests as an underdog in the Dan Quinn era, he’s averaged 122.1 yards per game. Julio’s not getting the volume he’s gotten in previous years, but we’re still projecting Julio for significantly more than 61.2 yards against the Pats.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed and NBA news feed.
