The Super Bowl is always my favorite football game of the year, not because I care about who will be the NFL champion, but because sportsbooks offer hundreds — if not thousands — of props for the game.
For the specific props I like, be sure to check out the breakdowns I’ll publish as we get closer to the big game, and also consult the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool, where the props with a Bet Quality Rating of 10 (out of 10) have gone 496-325-19 since the 2018 season.
For a real edge, subscribe to FantasyLabs.
This season, I’m 340-225-10 (+64.5) on NFL player props.
For now, here’s the blueprint for how I plan to attack the Super Bowl prop market.
1. Bet the Under on Super Bowl Player Props
Each prop must be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, but we generally see more value on the under for player props.
Why?
My theory is that people tend to bet on something they want to see, i.e., lots of receptions, yards and touchdowns. And that’s especially the case with the Super Bowl, when the market swells with casual bettors.
On top of that, the Chiefs and 49ers have high-scoring offenses, so bettors are all the likelier to be bullish on their player props.
But even two teams with strong offenses can produce a low-scoring game. Remember last year’s Super Bowl, when the Patriots and Rams combined for just 16 points? That was the greatest prop-betting game of my life, primarily because I had an inordinate number of unders.
I was lucky that the game underwhelmed so spectacularly, but the unders were simply where the value was. I expect that to be the case again this year.
2. Bet ‘No’ on Super Bowl Game Props
Like I mentioned above, people want to bet on something — not nothing — and that tends to create value for the “No” side of many yes/no game props, such as these.
- Will there be a safety?
- Will there be an overtime?
For lots of affirmative/negative game props, skepticism is sharp.
3. Bet Heavy Juice on Value
Sometimes, the “No” side of a game prop will come with heavy juice, which might scare away casual bettors, and that can create value.
For instance, whenever the safety prop is posted, we might see “No” at -1000. That’s a lot of juice, and it carries an implied probability of 90.9% — the percentage of games in which we’d need a safety not to occur in order to break even. But there were only 17 safeties in 256 regular-season games, which means that, historically, we’d expect not to see a safety in at least 93.4% of games.
That gap of 2.5% between the historical rate (93.4%) and the implied odds (90.9%) — that represents value. And no matter the juice, it almost never makes sense to pass up value.
4. Bet Super Bowl Props Early & Often
For the Super Bowl, I want to bet props early and often.
By game time, the prop market will be fairly efficient, but many of the early lines will offer value and should be attacked aggressively before they move. Some sportsbooks will release props as early as 12-13 days before the Super Bowl: These lines especially should be mined for value.
And I plan to monitor the market regularly, because many sportsbooks release Super Bowl props in waves.
Big picture: Whenever a favorable line is released, I want to establish a position on it quickly before it moves and loses value, and to do that I will need to be diligent in checking lines.
5. Bet at Multiple Books to Middle & Arbitrage
To find the best lines possible, I’ll be using as many sportsbooks as I can, and with this enhanced optionality — especially early in the process before lines move — there will be opportunities to middle and arbitrage the market.
Here’s what I mean I mean by “middle”: If I see that Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill has a receiving yardage prop of 65.5 yards at one book and 75.5 yards at another book, I can bet over 65.5 and under 75.5 with the hope that he will hit the middle with 66-75 yards and I can cash both tickets.
Here’s what I mean by “arbitrage”: If I see that the field goal prop for the game is 3.5 and the over is +120 at one book and the under is +120 at another book, then I can bet +120 on both sides of the market and lock in a profit.
If the middle is small, sometimes it’s not worth shooting for, and if one side of an arbitrage opportunity clearly offers value while the other side doesn’t, then it’s reasonable to bet the one side and forego the certain cash.
But most of the time I’ll take whatever middle and arbitrage opportunities the market offers. I’m not above taking whatever easy money the books see fit to bestow.
Freedman is 580-458-22 (55.9%) overall betting on the NFL. To see the rest of the player props he’s betting, follow him in The Action Network App as he’ll continue to fill out his prop card throughout the weekend.
