Super Bowl MVP Odds, Trends, Picks and Predictions for Eagles-Chiefs

The Big Game is just days away, which means it’s time to start looking at Super Bowl MVP odds. Follow along as NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down the current candidates, past winners, historic trends and takeways, and his prediction for this year’s award. Use our FanDuel promo code to get up to $3,000 No Sweatt on Super Bowl odds this week!

Super Bowl 57 MVP Odds

• (PHI) Jalen Hurts: +125, Quarterback
• (KC) Patrick Mahomes: +135, Quarterback
• (KC) Travis Kelce: +1300. Tight End
• (PHI) A.J. Brown: +1400, Wide Receiver
• (PHI) Devonta Smith: +1400, Wide Receiver
• (PHI) Miles Sanders: +3700, Running Back
• (PHI) Hasson Reddick: +5000, Linebacker
• (KC) Isaiah Pacheco: +5000, Running Back
• (KC) Chris Jones: +5000, Defense End
• (RB) Jerick McKinnon: +8000, Running Back

The Kansas City Chiefs will be playing in their third Super Bowl in the last four years when they meet the Philadelphia Eagles in Glendale, Arizona on Sunday, Feb. 12. Still, oddsmakers have Jalen Hurts as the most likely candidate to win Super Bowl MVP, with Patrick Mahomes being the only other player listed with shorter than +800 odds.

Below, we take a look at Hurts and Mahomes to see which player is the better investment in this market ahead of the biggest sporting event of the year. We also have a longshot recommendation for bettors looking for additional risk.

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Past Super Bowl MVP Winners

• (LAR) Cooper Kupp, Wide Receiver
• (TB) Tom Brady, Quarterback
• (KC) Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback
• (NE) Julian Edelman, Wide Receiver
• (PHI) Nick Foles, Quarterback
• (NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
• (DEN) Von Miller, Linebacker
• (NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
• (SEA) Malcolm Smith, Linebacker
• (BAL) Joe Flacco, Quarterback
• (NYG) Eli Manning, Quarterback
• (GB) Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback
• (NO) Drew Brees, Quarterback
• (PIT) Santonio Holmes, Wide Receiver
• (NYG) Eli Manning, Quarterback
• (IND) Peyton Manning, Quarterback
• (PIT) Hines Ward, Wide Receiver
• (NE) Deion Branch, Wide Receiver
• (NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
• (TB) Dexter Jackson, Cornerback
• (NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback

Super Bowl MVP Trends

In the last 21 years, a quarterback has won Super Bowl MVP 13 times (61.9%). A wide receiver has earned the honors on five occasions (23.8%). A defensive player has won the award three times in that span (14.3%).

Roll the dice on a defensive player?

In each of the last two instances that a defensive player earned the award, the winning team held their opponent to 10 points or fewer and the quarterback had a pedestrian final line. In Super Bowl 50, Peyton Manning had only 13 completions and 141 passing yards with no touchdowns, opening the door for Von Miller, who had 2.5 sacks, three quarterback hits, and a pass deflection. In Super Bowl 48, Russell Wilson threw for only 206 passing yards, creating an opportunity for Malcolm Smith, who had a defensive touchdown, team-leading 10 tackles, and a fumble recovery.

In a game between two high-powered offenses, both of which feature elite offensive lines and quarterbacks with low turnover rates – it is highly unlikely that a defensive player steals the show in Glendale. Longshot wagers on defensive players do not make much sense this year.

Longshot wide receiver

If there is one wide receiver who could be worth a small investment, it is A.J. Brown at +1400. In the rare cases in which a wide receiver has won Super Bowl MVP, it has been due to an abnormally impressive performance – either totaling well over 100 receiving yards, catching multiple touchdown passes, or both.

During the regular season, Brown was Philadelphia’s most-targeted wide receiver, led the team in receiving yards by a comfortable margin, and finished the year tied for third in the entire NFL in touchdown receptions.

In 19 games played, this year, Brown has eclipsed 150 receiving yards in a game three separate times, including a Halloween eve performance when he had 156 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Facing a Kansas City secondary unit that struggles mightily when the defensive line is unable to get pressure on the opposing quarterback, Brown has the potential for a career-defining performance.

If you are not in a state with legal sports betting, you can target the over on Brown’s receiving yards in a DFS entry by using our Boom Fantasy promo code.

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Super Bowl MVP Pick & Prediction

It is not the sexiest prediction of all-time, but it is extremely probable that either Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes will earn MVP honors in this year’s Super Bowl.

Facing a Kansas City defense that is beatable in the secondary unit, Hurts should have enough volume through the air to justify him as the game’s top performer in a win. Hurts also has a pathway to winning this award with his legs, considering that he has six games with at least 60 rushing yards this year. If Hurts can score three total touchdowns and combine for over 250 yards of total offense, it will be difficult to give the award to another member of the Eagles.

Mahomes has a hero narrative in the making, resurrecting himself from the sidelines in the divisional round to beat the Jaguars on one leg, in addition to beating the Bengals while hobbling around the field in the second half of the AFC championship game. Kansas City’s top three wide receivers each left last Sunday’s contest early due to an injury, further hurting their chances to usurp the award from Mahomes. Travis Kelce has a difficult matchup against a Philadelphia defense that has been tough on tight ends all year. Nobody on the Chiefs’ defense appears particularly capable of delivering a show-stopping performance against an elite Eagles offensive line and a quarterback with the second-lowest turnover-worthy-play percentage among qualified signal callers this season.

If looking to bet the Chiefs or the Eagles on the spread or moneyline, it is not a bad idea to double-up or split your investment on Hurts or Mahomes to win Super Bowl 57 MVP. Our recommendation is going with Hurts in a game that Philadelphia should win.

• PICK: Jalen Hurts to Win Super Bowl 57 MVP (+125), FanDuel