We’re just hours away from the biggest sports betting day of the year. Patrick Mahomes will clash with Jalen Hurts, as the Eagles and Chiefs are set to kick things off inside State Farm Stadium on Sunday, Feb. 12, at 6:30 PM EST.
The Eagles enter as 1.5-point favorites, having dominated both the Giants and 49ers en route to Glendale, AZ. The over/under currently sits at 51 points, as oddsmakers expect a high-scoring affair despite several injury concerns on the offensive side of the football for the Chiefs.
If you’re looking for bets, there are plenty of options — the spread, player props, and Gatorade showers, just to name a few. Our team of writers and editors have scoured the sportsbooks and put together their favorite picks for Super Bowl 57, which you can find below.
Also Read: Best Super Bowl Sportsbook Promo Offers
BET $10, WIN $100
Super Bowl Best Bets
Justin Bailey: Eagles Over 2.5 Sacks (-140)
Patrick Mahomes has been practicing in full, but the reports are his ankle is still not 100% healthy. Given the ankle issues, I like the over on this bet as Mahomes took three sacks in his first game back vs. the Bengals. The Chiefs are slight underdogs, so we have Mahomes projected for 38.5 dropbacks in our player props tool (powered by Sean Koerner).
If Mahomes drops back that many times, that’s another factor in favor of this bet since the Eagles led the league with an 11.2% adjusted sack rate this season.
- PICK: Over 2.5 Sacks (-140), DraftKings Sportsbook
Matt Lamarca: Under 51 Total Points
The offenses have gotten plenty of attention in this matchup, and rightfully so: The Chiefs ranked first in the league in yards and points per game, while the Eagles are third in both categories. There has also been some sharp activity on the over, which has caused this number to increase by 1.5 points since opening.
However, history suggests that this number is too high. The style that teams have played defense has changed drastically this season. The focus is playing a “bend but don’t break” strategy, limiting big plays and resulting in plenty of sustained drives. That has made getting to 50 points extremely difficult.
Overall, there have been 27 games with a total of at least 50 points this season, and the under has gone 18-9 in those contests. The Eagles have yet to play in a game with a total that high, but the Chiefs are no stranger to them. They’ve played in 11 games with a total of at least 50 points this season, and the under is 8-3 in those contests.
Additionally, the Super Bowl has historically been a lower-scoring affair. There is a longer halftime break than usual, and that can be difficult to adjust to. Unsurprisingly, the under has gone 9-3-1 with a total of at least 50 points during the Super Bowl.
Add in some health questions for Mahomes and the Chiefs’ receivers and the Eagles’ dominant defense, and this game could be lower scoring than expected.
- PICK: Under 51 Total Points, Various sportsbooks
Billy Ward: Over 5.5 Total Sacks (+104)
For the Super Bowl – and occasionally other games – books are offering an over/under bet on the total number of sacks between the two teams. I prefer this market over betting on sacks for either team individually. It’s far more resilient to game flow, as a team with a big lead will attempt far fewer passes and vice versa.
While game flow matters a bit here, the impact is far less. Theoretically, a reduction in one team’s passing rate would be balanced out by an increase for the other team. In practice, unless we’re projecting an identical sack rate per dropback for each team, a big lead either way shifts the math a bit.
Fortunately, this game is expected to be close, with a spread holding in the 1.5-point range. Additionally, both teams should have very similar sack rates. The Chiefs allow far less sacks, but the Eagles’ defensive front forces more than their counterpart.
Based on comparing each team’s sack rates to the league average, then multiplying by their opposing sacks allowed, I came up with a rough estimate for the expected sack percentage from each team. Then, adjusting for each quarterback’s expected pass attempts in Sean Koerner’s projections, I was able to come up with a median total.
That number works out to just over 6.2, making the over a clear value at plus-money on FanDuel.
- PICK: Over 5.5 Sacks +104 (good to -110), FanDuel Sportsbook
FanDuel Promo: $3000 No Sweat First Bet Offer
Ted Dahlstrom: Shortest Field Goal – Over 27.5 Yards
My favorite Super Bowl prop bet is Shortest Field Goal of the Game Will Be OVER 27.5 Yards, which is currently available on bet365 at -115. I like this bet because a 27-yard field goal is kicked from the 10 yard line. With both teams having mobile QBs and aggressive coaches, I’m guessing that either team will go for it on 4th down if they are that close to the end zone. I think there will be 3-4 field goals made during the game due to the superior defenses of both teams stalling out the offenses, but all of the FGs will be well over 27 yards.
- PICK: Shortest FG Over 27.5 Yards, BetMGM
Matt Schmitto: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 Against the Spread
Everyone seems to love the Eagles, but I have my doubts. The Eagles benefited from a favorable schedule during the regular season and skated through the playoffs thanks to a divisional-round matchup with the Giants and an early injury to the 49ers’ Brock Purdy in the NFC Championship game. That’s not to diminish what Jalen Hurts and head coach Nick Sirianni have accomplished. They’ve done exactly what’s been asked and more, but they have yet to face a test like the one that awaits them in Arizona. Now, you’re telling me I get to bet on the best quarterback ever, in the biggest game of the year, as an underdog? I’ll take it.
Spreads in the NFL are extremely efficient already, and even more so in an event with as much liquidity as the Super Bowl. So if you’re looking for a best bet, you’ll likely find more value in the write-ups above. However, if you’re looking for a lean against the spread, I say betting on Mahomes with the points is an opportunity too good to pass up.
- PICK: KC Chiefs +1.5 (-110), Various sportsbooks
