There’s an edge in Super Bowl props.
These aren’t NFL spreads and totals. The limits are lower, and — especially in the Super Bowl — a bunch of donkeys are firing on a whim just to get action. The books aren’t putting tons of time into setting these lines, the market isn’t robust enough to quickly correct props that are wrong, and they very often aren’t updated as quickly as they should be.
I believe that will change in the future as a younger generation of bettors begins focusing on player-centric bets, but for now, there are inefficiencies.
Further, although the vig is usually high on props, it doesn’t matter (sort of).
When I say that vig doesn’t matter, I mean that you can’t just label both sides of a bet “bad” because the juice is crazy, which it often will be on prop bets (especially those on low-probability events). The vig doesn’t change whether a bet is good or bad; it just decreases the odds of one side of a prop being +EV.
And if you think about it, why would the odds on one side of a bet affect if the other side is sharp? Yes, the vig can be a lot higher on props, but the lines can also be off enough that you can still find +EV sides. So if I’m betting on whether there will be a safety in the Super Bowl, I’m snap-firing “no” at -900 regardless of whether “yes” is +600 or +200.
With that said, let’s get to the bets.
Note: Odds via Westgate and as of Tuesday. As always, shop around for the best number.
Will There Be a Safety? NO (-900)
The odds on this bet are the same as last year when I recommended it. A big reason for that is because no one really wants to lay huge odds — betting a lot to win a little, even if the bet is correct.
Vegas is going to get a bunch of bets on big underdogs just because it’s more fun, and while they’re highly concerned with accuracy on bets like the spread and total, getting it “right” on this one is less important with most bets likely coming in on “yes.”
There’s been a safety in-between 1-in-13 and 1-in-14 NFL games over the past five seasons — an implied line of about +1250. I really have no good reason to think there’s a significantly better or worse chance for a safety in this game than any other, and thus anything in the -900 range is likely an +EV bet.
