This is a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the Super Bowl 54 featuring the Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, Feb. 2 at 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX. Be sure to check our Models up until kickoff for up-to-date projections that reflect the latest breaking news.
Cash Game Locks
QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($12,600 DK, $16,000 FD): You would think that maybe, just maybe, against the best defense in the league — one that allowed fewer net yards per pass attempt than nearly a quarter of the league did per rush attempt — that Mahomes would merely be the top play, instead of in a different stratosphere. But nope: Our DraftKings Showdown Models put his median outcome at 25.5 DraftKings points. No other player on the slate is within even 7 points of Mahomes.
RB Damien Williams, Chiefs ($9,800 DK, $14,000 FD): Over Williams’ last six healthy contests, he’s averaging 106.7 scrimmage yards and 1.33 TDs per game on 18.3 touches. But he’s running behind an O-line whose composition is 80% below-average run blocker/20% Mitchell Schwartz, and he’s facing a defense that allows a league-low 4.1 yards per target to opposing backs, and his efficiency prospects aren’t great.
That said, he still offers top-flight upside thanks to an increased role and newfound nose for the pylon. Now in his second season under head coach Andy Reid, Williams was entrusted with a 91% share of snaps this postseason. He has crossed the goal line at least once in each of his past four games, piling up seven scores in total over that span. And especially with the increased snap count, he figures to remain heavily involved in the passing game after drawing six or more targets in each of his last three games. The 49ers have seen a running back post five or more catches on them in both of their postseason games thus far.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Damien Williams
RB Raheem Mostert, 49ers ($9,400 DK, $14,000 FD): Since taking over as the lead back seven games ago, Mostert is producing at a clip of 104.6 scrimmage yards and 1.57 TDs per game on 16.1 touches. Though his medians over that stretch — 12 touches, 73 scrimmage yards — are significantly lower, he too has monster TD upside. He found paydirt at least once in seven of his past eight games. And in three of his last six, he’s been a repeat visitor to the painted chalk.
Site-Specific Cash Game Values
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers ($8,000 DK): Once upon a time, on a slate far, far away, there was a beautiful 48-46 shootout between the Niners and Saints. Rostering pieces of the San Francisco pass game was good back then. There were so many fantasy points to go around, we didn’t know what to do with him. Jimmy G’s 32.06-DK-point performance wasn’t an outlier to us back then; we took it for what it was at the time: his third 30-point game in the last six. Then, out of nowhere, boom! In less time than it takes for a George Kittle wham block to dissolve a defender into the turf, it was over. Each new week just brought handoffs, and handoffs and more handoffs. It took only a week for his DK points to suffer a 20-point dip all the way down to 12.60, and then 12.43, then 11.80, 9.24, 2.98. Where were you when the bubble burst?.
WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($8,500 FD): Samuel has been a fixture in the run game, with at least one carry in each of his last seven games and at least two carries in four of his last six. As a receiver, he’s averaging 4.0 catches, 66.3 yards and 0.20 TDs over the past 10 games, adding another 17.1 yards and 0.20 TDs on the ground. Our FanDuel Models peg him for the second-best value on the slate.
WR Emmanuel Sanders, 49ers ($7,500 FD): Sanders is a necessary piece of the puzzle in cash games on FanDuel by virtue of pricing. He’s also a great tournament play across all platforms because of his volatility.
WR Mecole Hardman, Chiefs ($2,200 DK): Hardman’s 40% snap rate in the AFC title game — finally — placed him slightly ahead of incumbent No. 3 wide receiver Demarcus Robinson (37%). In Year 1, he’s done things you expect players who run a 4.33 forty to do, such as average over 20 yards per reception, take a kickoff to the house from 4 yards deep in his own end zone and parlay 33 offensive touches into another six TDs. I don’t know what Andy Reid has been cooking up, but if I was him, this would be the game I unleash Hardman and go full dream team instead of playing 10-on-11 with Robinson.
FB Kyle Juszczyk, 49ers ($1,200 DK): He’s the reason the 49ers lead the NFL in 21 personnel usage, which in turn forces the opposition to keep its base personnel on the field. The Chiefs linebackers are their weakest link in coverage, so this should be a game in which Juszczyk gets involved as a pass-catcher.
DraftKings Cash Game Lineup Construction
I’m not going to fade Mahomes and his 11-point edge in the Captain slot, which makes the rest of the build fairly straightforward for me: Lock in Garoppolo, Williams and Mostert to give yourself exposure to (hopefully) most of the offensive production in this game, and round it out with by taking advantage of the value on Hardman and the matchup for Juszczyk.
FanDuel Cash Game Lineup Construction
You have to fade one of either Mahomes, Garoppolo, Williams or Mostert here in order to make the other three fit under the cap. The price points of Samuel and Sanders dictate that the fade be Garoppolo. With Garoppolo out and Mahomes, Williams and Mostert in, you are able to fit both Samuel and Sanders under the cap. Based on each of their target share numbers, this move nets you back roughly 40% of the production lost in fading Garoppolo.
Super Bowl 54 GPP Strategy
