Week 2 features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Patrick Mahomes at Captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $18,900 as opposed to $12,600.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: Get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
Studs
This game features tons of offensive firepower. It’s expected to be a high-scoring contest – the total is set at 54.5 points – and the Chiefs are 3.5-point road favorites.
Mahomes is the most expensive option on this slate, and he picked up right where he left off in Week 1. He racked up 337 passing yards with three touchdowns, and he also added 18 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. He also overcame another double-digit deficit, bring his career record to an absurd 10-6 when falling behind by at least 10 points:
Chiefs are now 10-6 (.625) with Patrick Mahomes at QB in regular season + playoffs after falling behind by 10+ points. Brady (36-55, .396) is 2nd best since 1991 (min 15 games w/ double digit deficits). League avg win % is .155 in those scenarios
— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) September 13, 2021
Mahomes is obviously in play vs. the Ravens. His matchup isn’t ideal, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.0 on DraftKings, but Mahomes is basically as matchup-proof as it gets. He leads all players in virtually every projection in our NFL Models, and his $12,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
The big question is how to stack the Chiefs. Stacking Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is tough – especially if you want to use one in the Captain slot – but it undoubtedly carries tons of upside.
Hill and Kelce have been two of the best pass-catchers in football for a while now, but Mahomes has zeroed in on them more and more frequently of late. Kelce averaged 11.25 targets over his final eight games of last season, while Hill averaged 10.75 targets over that time frame. Both players averaged more than 100 yards per game over that sample size, and they’ve combined for more than two touchdowns per game.
That production carried into the new season. Hill racked up 15 targets last week and finished with 40.1 DraftKings points, while Kelce managed 25.6 DraftKings points on seven targets.
Both players are elite options, but I would prioritize Hill over Kelce if you can only choose one. Not only does he have a better ceiling projection than Kelce, but he is also much more positively correlated with Mahomes. Hill and Mahomes own a correlation of +0.53 on DraftKings, while Kelce and Mahomes are just +0.17.
Stacking Hill and Kelce without Mahomes is also possible, and it should give you a somewhat different lineup construction. Both players have a positive correlation, albeit just +0.07.
Lamar Jackson is the only real stud target for the Ravens, but he’s one of the top studs in football. He got off to a slow start last week vs. the Raiders, but his rushing ability gives him elite upside every time he takes the field. He also owns arguably the best matchup on the slate, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.8. The Chiefs ranked dead-last in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA last season, and Jackson has led the league in yards per carry in each of the past two seasons.
That said, the Chiefs have had Jackson’s number in three previous meetings. He owns an average Plus/Minus of -1.72 on DraftKings, and he’s scored 21.28 DraftKings points or fewer in all three games (per the Trends tool).
Jackson’s track record as an underdog is also shaky. He posted an average Plus/Minus of just +0.20 as an underdog, compared to a mark of +4.98 as a favorite. Jackson should command massive ownership, but there is some merit to fading him.
Mid-Range
Jackson’s top pass catchers are Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins and Mark Andrews, and all three players are priced relatively similarly. Andrews is the best value of the bunch on DraftKings, while Watkins owns a Bargain Rating of 94% on FanDuel.
Brown led the group with 19.4 DraftKings points in their last game, but he caught their only receiving touchdown. Watkins actually led the team with eight targets, and he also finished with the most expected fantasy points per Pro Football Focus. Most people don’t trust Watkins, so I would expect his ownership to be minimal. That makes him my preferred target.
Andrews is also an interesting buy-low target. He saw just five targets last game, but he commanded a 22% target share last year. His DraftKings price is appealing, and the Chiefs were merely 16th in DVOA vs. opposing TEs last year.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is an interesting contrarian way to attack this game. He’s negatively correlated with all the Chiefs’ big studs, so games where he succeeds are games where Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce tend to fail.
Edwards-Helaire also appears poised to take a step forward in his second season. He had 14 carries last week, and while that isn’t a huge number on the surface, it represents the vast majority of the running back carries. Darrel Williams had just one carry, so CEH could operate as the Chiefs’ true feature back this season.
Things are a bit more complicated in the Ravens’ backfield. Ty’Son Williams was expected to lead the way for the Ravens at running back last week, but Latavius Murray actually saw more carries. Williams was the far more productive player – he averaged 7.2 yards per carry, Murray averaged 2.8 – but it’s tough to get truly excited about either option if they’re going to split the carries down the middle.
Williams is the preferred option of the two given his efficiency and involvement in the passing game, but he’s far from a must-play.
There was hope that this would be the season that Mecole Hardman finally broke out. His role as the Chiefs’ No. 2 receiver seemed secure, and he draw excellent reviews out of training camp. Hardman has track-star speed, so fantasy owners were excited about what he could do with a few more targets per game.
Unfortunately, his season didn’t get off to a great start. He played on just 69% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps, and he finished with just three targets. He caught all three of the balls thrown his way, but he managed just 19 receiving yards.
DeMarcus Robinson actually played on a larger percentage of the Chiefs’ plays last week. He wasn’t impressive either – he finished with just one catch on two targets – but it seems as though he and Hardman are basically equal in the Chiefs’ pecking order.
Overall, Hardman possesses more upside, but he will also likely command far greater ownership.
Quick Hits
- Kickers and Defenses: These options are always in play in the single-game format. That said, the defenses don’t have a ton of appeal in this matchup. If I was going to play one of these options, it’d be Justin Tucker. Not only is he one of the better kickers in the league, he’s also the rare kicker with a positive correlation to his starting quarterback.
- Darrel Williams ($2,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Just because CEH saw virtually all the RB work for the Chiefs last week doesn’t mean it will be the same in Week 2. He averaged just 3.1 yards per carry vs. the Browns, so it’s possible that Williams sees a few more touches vs. the Ravens.
- Devin Duvernay ($2,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): The Ravens have an opening at WR3 with Rashod Bateman currently sidelined, and Duvernay filled that role last week. Unfortunately, that role doesn’t provide much fantasy value. He saw just two targets and grabbed one pass for six yards.
- Byron Pringle ($1,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Pringle played on just 17% of the snaps last week, but he still saw two targets.
- Patrick Ricard ($1,000 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): Ricard played on 60% of the Ravens snaps last week, and he finished with two catches for 15 yards. He doesn’t have much upside, but he’s dirt cheap across the industry. If you’re looking to jam in all four of the big studs, guys like Ricard are mandatory. If those four players go off, you can survive with just a couple of points from your punt plays.
