The Dodgers have not had the best of seasons, and their starting pitching has been unreliable to say the least. Rich Hill is dealing with blisters, as is always the case. Clayton Kershaw has been on the shelf for a month. And Kenta Maeda had been doing decent, until he decided to give these guys some work last night.
However, one bright spot has been Ross Stripling. The 28-year-old right-hander had middling success with the Dodgers during his time in the majors in 2016 and 2017, but he has excelled this season. He’s made 16 appearances, and tonight marks his sixth start. He’s performed great as a starter and out of the bullpen.
- Starter: 26 IP, 2.42 ERA, 2.10 xFIP, 11.42 K/9, 1.04 BB/9
- Reliever: 15.1 IP, 0.59 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, 9.98 K/9, 3.52 BB/9
I expect we’ll see some regression over the course of the season, because you don’t often see a 28-year-old improve this much out of the blue, but he’s lined up for more success tonight. Here’s why.
Strikeout Prediction
Since the Phillies are a strikeout-prone squad and Stripling can make hitters miss, we’re predicting 7.5 Ks for the righty. Historically, this puts him in the 95th percentile.
Pitchers at the 90% mark or higher have historically provided value.
- 90-100: +2.02 Plus/Minus, 58.8% Consistency
- 0-89: -0.43 Plus/Minus, 50.2% Consistency
When you bump it up from 90% to 95%, the Plus/Minus goes up to +2.67 and the Consistency rises to 60.3%. The Phillies are a solid team, and their 4.50 runs scored per game is fourth-highest mark in the National League, but the have their projected lineup has a slate-high 29.6% strikeout rate against righties over the past year, and they have the slate’s second-lowest implied total with 3.1 runs. Stripling’s newfound strikeout ability will give him plenty of opportunities for Ks tonight.
Recent Batted Ball Data: Exit velocity
Strikeouts are always good, especially in DFS, but they won’t do you much good if a pitcher is getting knocked around and can’t stay in the game for long. Clearly, Stripling’s ERA and xFIP both suggest that he has not been getting knocked around at all, as does his batted-ball data. Opponents have had an exit velocity of just 86 mph against him over the past 15 days, which is tied for the second-lowest mark on the slate behind Brad Keller, who has appeared only out of the pen.
Using 90 mph as a dividing point, we can see how recent exit velocity translates into real-life and DFS success.
- 90+ mph: -0.81 Plus/Minus, 48.6% Consistency
- 89 mph or below: +0.91 Plus/Minus, 55.5% Consistency
Strikeouts + Low Exit Velocity = +EV
Clearly, Stripling has a couple of great factors in his favor, and the combination of those factors is significant.
We have batted-ball data for 15,378 starting pitchers since 2015, and 1,450 have fallen into the 90th percentile in strikeout prediction and had exit velocities of less than 90 mph. They’ve performed very well with a +3.06 Plus/Minus and 63.1% Consistency.
If we break these 1,450 pitchers into salary buckets, we can see how an underpriced guy like Stripling has performed compared to high-priced guys like James Paxton and Max Scherzer, who also fit the high-strikeout, low-exit velocity criteria tonight.
- $7,400 and less: +4.20 Plus/Minus, 64.7% Consistency
- $7500 to 9900: +2.14 Plus/Minus, 61.8% Consistency
- $10,000 and more: +3.37 Plus/Minus, 63.6% Consistency
The cheaper fellas in this subset are more than pulling their weight with the highest Plus/Minus and Consistency marks. Evidently, DraftKings doesn’t price non-elite guys like Stripling accordingly when they’re in prime spots. We’re projecting Stripling to have 26-30% DraftKings ownership, but he still might have lower ownership than Paxton and Scherzer, given their matchups and projections.
You’re not always going to find cheap arms in great spots, but Stripling fits the mold perfectly against Philly.
Pictured above: Ross Stripling
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
