In a game that could potentially be a continuation of Thursday Night Football dumpster fires of years past, the Cleveland Browns are favored (!) by three at home against the New York Jets.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering $250,000 first-place prizes and $1 million in total prizes in their biggest one-game Thursday contests. Browns-Jets kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on Sep. 20 on NFL Network.
Good Matchups & Values
In complete Browns-like fashion, the top two values on their team are kicker and their D/ST:
- Gregory Joseph is a rookie undrafted free agent who made kicks of 48, 54 and 33 yards with the Dolphins in the preseason.
- The Browns defense held the high-powered Steelers and Saints offenses to 21 points apiece. Now they get to face rookie Sam Darnold, who has shown promise but has also thrown three picks and fumbled once through two professional starts.
Both teams also have gaps left in their receiving corps:
- The Josh Gordon trade opens up snaps for rookie Antonio Callaway and third-year man Rashard Higgins. Callaway played 81% of the snaps last week and is the more talented of the two, but Higgins played 74% and is the better value on DraftKings because his $3,200 salary is less than half of Callaway’s ($6,600).
- Jets tight end Neal Sterling had a 14% target share in Week 1 but suffered a concussion in Week 2 and has already been ruled out. Rookie fourth-rounder Chris Herndon out of Miami came on with a 2-30 line on four targets last week and has the top Projected Plus/Minus of all position players on DraftKings at a salary of just $1,800.
Other notes:
- Dual threat quarterbacks such as Tyrod Taylor have averaged a +1.88 Plus/Minus in high-wind, low-total games. Taylor has quietly averaged 273 passing plus rushing yards per game through two games.
- David Njoku is second on the Browns with a 19% target share but has just 33 receiving yards to show for it. With regression to the mean inevitable, Njoku clocks in with a top-five Projected Plus/Minus.
- Buster Skrine and Co. allowed an average of 6.5 catches for 65.0 yards and 1.0 touchdown per game to opposing slot receivers, according to Pro Football Focus. I’ve done prior research that found wide receivers who play after being listed on the injury report with a knee injury see a 5% dip in production on average, but Jarvis Landry has drawn 33% of all non-Gordon targets and will have huge volume-driven upside if he suits up.
- Hue Jackson said they’ve “got to get Duke Johnson opportunities” because he’s “one of their better players.” Facts, Hue. Facts. Though it didn’t come to fruition last week, Gordon’s absence only increases the likelihood of Johnson being more involved after he led the team in targets (167), receptions (127) and yards (1,207) during Jackson’s first two years with the team.
- Even though Carlos Hyde doesn’t stand out as a great value, he does have a top-five projected floor and is in a good spot as a home favorite running back. According to our NFL Trends tool, Hyde’s average DraftKings Plus/Minus at home since 2014 is +3.4, and his average Consistency Rating is 58%; both compare favorably to his +0.4 and 46% marks on the road.
- Terrelle Pryor‘s 28% share of Jets air yards and 18% share of targets both trail those of only Quincy Enunwa (32%, 34%).
- Cleveland allowed receiving lines of 5-57 (James Conner) and 6-53 (Alvin Kamara) to tailbacks already this season and now faces Bilal Powell, who has 79 receiving yards and a touchdown through two games. (As of this writing, our Player Props tool identifies the over on Powell’s receiving yards prop as the strongest bet on the board in this game.)
- Jermaine Kearse played only 31% of the snaps and drew just two targets in his first game back following an abdominal injury, but he was second on the team last season with a 25% share of air yards and 20% target share. It’s quite possible he works his way back into being a bigger part of the rotation.
Tough Matchups & Fade Candidates
- Robby Anderson has played nearly half of his snaps in the slot this season, which is good as far as avoiding emerging corner Xavien Howard, who according to PFF data has allowed only 3-of-9 passing with an interception so far this season. But working underneath more has cut into Anderson’s share of air yards, which sits at only 16% through two games.
Roster Construction Notes
- According to our Correlations Dashboard, Taylor’s fantasy points had the strongest correlation with that of his tight end with the Bills from 2015 to 2017, (.43). TyGod had positive correlations with the entire offense — WR2 (.27), WR1 (.20), RB1 (.19), RB2 (.16) — but was not correlated to his D/ST (.01).
- The Jets’ committee backfield hasn’t necessarily been a detriment to either back’s fantasy value correlation-wise: The fantasy points of the Jets’ RB1 and RB2 are positively correlated (.20) since the start of 2017.
- The same can’t be said for the Browns: Since 2016, Cleveland’s RB1 has a negative correlation (-.28) with its RB2 in fantasy points.
- Cleveland’s RB2 has also been negatively correlated with its TE1 since 2016 (-20).
Strategy and Leverage
With both kickers and D/STs projecting as strong values, it’s important to note this gem from John Ewing in our Jets-Browns betting preview:
The forecast calls for average wind speeds of 11 mph during this Thursday night matchup. In windy games (10 mph or stronger), the under is 439-350-10 (56%) since 2003.
More exposure to the field on the unsexy options has a better chance of paying off than usual. Both D/STs in particular are ranked in the top 10 at the position in our composite Week 3 fantasy football rankings (from myself, Sean Koerner and Matthew Freedman).
That said, Taylor is still the best choice for the Captain/MVP slot in tournaments. Our DraftKings Showdown Models have him with the highest projected ceiling by nearly five points over any other player on the slate.
Second in projected ceiling is Darnold, which underscores the fact that quarterbacks tend to be the highest-upside plays on small slates. And as I like to mention in each of these breakdowns, stacking both quarterbacks is an underrated strategy, especially considering the .44 correlation between the fantasy points of opposing quarterbacks since 2014 (per the Correlations Dashboard).
In cash games, Taylor is the top option to anchor lineups, and receiving backs Powell and Johnson are high-floor building blocks (relatively speaking) as well.
Considering the positive correlation between the Jets’ top two backs, using lineups containing both Powell and Isaiah Crowell is a way to gain differentiation without losing value. At the same time, fading Johnson in Carlos Hyde lineups and vice versa is the smarter bet according to past data.
Njoku-Johnson is likely to be a somewhat popular pairing, but the data also suggests some leverage can be gained by not pairing the two. Especially with Seth DeValve (hamstring) ruled out, one dart-throw pivot option off Njoku is fellow tight end Darren Fells, who has 11 fewer targets but only six fewer yards than Njoku this season.
Kearse and Herndon are easily the two highest-leverage Jets pass-catchers. A pivot off Herndon is Eric Tomlinson, who is used more as a blocker but has a nearly identical receiving line to Herndon this season (2-31 on three targets).
Let’s get this shmoney!
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Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network and a co-host of “I’ll Take That Bet” on ESPN+. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.
Photo credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tyrod Taylor
