Justin Bailey is a single-lineup player who uses the FantasyLabs Tools to research slates and build daily fantasy rosters. This series — The Single-Entry Savant — highlights the tools he uses and methodology he applies to construct his lineups.
Single Lineup Synopsis
I’m a single-lineup player who generally plays 80 percent of my action in head-to-head games and the other 20 percent in single-entry tournaments. There is an abundance of decisions to make on a weekly or daily basis in DFS, but one thing that remains constant in my process each week is my game allocation:
- Try for at least 30 head-to-heads at a given buy-in level. Otherwise, enter some single-entry double-ups to supplement.
- Thirty $5 head-to-heads are safer than a $100 and $50 head-to-head.
- Stick to single-entry GPPs for your tournament allotment.
Remember: Keep it simple.
Russell Wilson is the Seahawks Offense
Typically, I look to pay down at quarterback when I can, but the Seahawks offense has no choice but to lean on Russell Wilson even more with their lack of ability to run the football. This season, Wilson ranks second in the league in pass attempts and has compiled a 5.8 percent touchdown rate, the fifth-best mark in the league. Wilson has been responsible for 84.4 percent of their offensive yards this year. Due to the Seahawks’ inept rushing attack, Wilson ranks second among quarterbacks in rushes (28) and rushing yards (222) over the past six weeks, further solidifying his floor.
Wilson is one of seven of quarterbacks who is averaging five rush attempts per game this season, which has historically led to 18.35 DraftKings points per game with a +1.69 Plus/Minus. He’s in a tremendous spot against a 49ers defense that ranks 30th in pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), allowing quarterbacks to average 20.84 DraftKings points per game and exceed salary-based expectations by an average of three points this season. Wilson is currently the No. 1 overall DraftKings quarterback in the Adam Levitan Player Model.
Tevin Coleman, the Heavy Home Favorite
With Devonta Freeman (concussion) ruled out, Tevin Coleman will be a building block in my lineup, especially on FanDuel where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating. In Week 11, Coleman led the Falcons with 68 percent of their running back snaps and received 77 percent of the running back carries. The Buccaneers are a neutral matchup in terms of DVOA (14th), but they’re allowing .82 fantasy points per opportunity — the 10th-highest mark in the league.
Coleman can still find success in the passing game: The Buccaneers rank 27th in pass DVOA, allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game to opposing backfields. Overall, he should have an easier path to success than last week, as Coleman and the Falcons are 10-point home favorites with a 29.5-point Vegas implied team total. Historically, starting running backs who are playing at home, implied for at least four touchdowns and are at least 10-point favorites have averaged 13.41 FanDuel points per game with a +2.31 Plus/Minus. Coleman is currently the best running back value on FanDuel with a 16.9-point Median Projection.
Antonio Brown Smashes at Home
Sadly, Antonio Brown isn’t on DraftKings’ main slate. He’s $9,600 on FanDuel, but he’s still sporting a 96 percent Bargain Rating. Brown becomes even more appealing if JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) doesn’t suit up, as JuJu has tallied 8.3 targets per game over the past three weeks. Brown has a supreme matchup against a Packers defense that ranks 23rd in pass DVOA, allowing a 65.1 percent catch rate and 8.83 yards per target to opposing receivers — both of which rank bottom-four in the league.
Given that Brown runs routes all over the field, he’ll see time against Josh Hawkins, Davon House, and Demarious Randle. All three corners rank 69th or worse in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades. It’s also a boost that Brown gets to play at home, where he has historically performed much better than on the road. Since 2014, Brown has averaged 22.88 FanDuel points per game with a +7.5 Plus/Minus and a 72 percent Consistency Rating. On the road, he’s averaged 15.51 FanDuel points per game with a -0.2 Plus/Minus and 53 percent Consistency Rating. If you’re looking to jam in Le’Veon Bell as well, I wouldn’t be concerned as Brown and Bell are positively correlated. Brown is expensive, but he’s the type of player who can win you the week.
Jack Doyle, Target Monster
It’s becoming more difficult to ignore Jack Doyle. He’s getting 28 percent of the Colts targets over the past six weeks. That’s essentially the same volume as a No. 1 wide receiver. Doyle’s 9.2 targets per game since Week 6 ranks 15th overall in the league and No. 1 among tight ends. He leads all tight ends in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings (+2.9) and FanDuel (+2.82), while having the second-highest Projected Floor, trailing only Kelce. Doyle is currently the No. 1 tight end in the Adam Levitan Player Model.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
