Stephen Strasburg has a reputation for being a maddening player to have shares of in DFS. There are several reasons for this:
1) Strasburg has been highly touted ever since college. He was the #1 overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft. He went 8-3 with a 1.90 ERA and 94 strikeouts in 75 innings during his Minor League career. He was one of the best prospects of all time. We tilt when he doesn’t throw a complete game shutout.
2) His K/9 and other peripherals are all phenomenal. His career K/9 rate of 10.28 is ahead of Pedro Martinez and Nolan Ryan, and third all-time (once he reaches 1,000 IP, if he maintains his current rate) behind Kerry Wood and Randy Johnson. We tilt when Strasburg doesn’t hit double-digit strikeouts. Side note: Can you imagine playing DFS during Big Unit’s prime? I would auto-play him at Coors Field vs. the 1927 New York Yankees.
3) People thoroughly enjoy ripping on him. He is constantly under a microscope. I imagine Strasburg and Harper laughing together at practice, repeatedly yelling “they hate us cause they ain’t us!”
The common theme is – when Strasburg performs poorly, the tilt is amplified. We expect greatness from him. The tilt has been especially over-exaggerated this season. While on the surface his stats have been bad (5.98 ERA), his BABIP is the highest in baseball – .389 this year, compared to .304 in his career. I am not denying the immediate effects of the Stras-tilt – nobody likes playing him when he finishes with -5.9 DraftKings points – but I am leaning on the side that Strasburg’s mechanics will be corrected, his BABIP will level out, and he’ll go back to dominating hitters like Kim Kardashian dominates tabloids.
There have been several theories trying to explain what is currently wrong with Strasburg. One of these theories is that Strasburg has lost it ever since he gave up chewing tobacco. Tobacco has been prevalent in baseball since 1845. Tony Gywnn passed away from salivary cancer in 2014, which led to Strasburg quitting (Gwynn was Strasburg’s coach at SDSU). While I have nothing but respect for Strasburg quitting, we are constantly looking for any trends that may affect players. If you asked me to give up Cinnamon Toast Crunch every morning, I wouldn’t even get out of bed. Pitchers develop routines and habits – not just mechanical, but also mental. Strasburg, by all accounts, quit chewing tobacco on or around June 24th, 2014. Let’s take a look at his splits of the before and after kicking the habit of chewing tobacco.
The two largest increases seem to be ERA and FIP. I am not necessarily writing off the tobacco theory, but I would rather point to the ankle injury Strasburg suffered this year that has led to some very poor starts, thus drastically impacting his post-tobacco stats. Strasburg did not get an MRI exam when he initially rolled his ankle on March 20th. It is likely that his mechanics slightly changed due to the injury, which is something to keep track of this season. However, there could be some truth to the decline of the tobacco-less Strasburg.
So how do we best avoid the Stras-tilt? Since Strasburg is an option basically any time he is pitching, we need to pinpoint when he is an optimal play. Using our Player Trends, we can gather data that will help limit the tilt and allow us to see when he is at his best. Strasburg performs well when he has a minimum of six Pro Trends in his favor for each start.
Strasburg has a +/- of 2.01 with this trend – that means he performs 2.01 points higher on average than his expected points. This is a big edge that can help determine when you want to risk the Stras-tilt. By using our tools, and monitoring his mechanics, you will no longer have to brace yourself every time he steps on the bump.
