It has been a forgettable season for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts, as they are well outside of the AFC playoff picture. The Colts have looked better since turning to interim coach Jeff Saturday, beating the Raiders and losing by one point to the 10-1 Eagles.
The Steelers are dangerously close to their first losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin in his 16-year tenure. They have a 3-7 record but have had a brutal schedule. Their 10 previous opponents have a combined record of 66-45 this season, and the Steelers have had to play most of the year without T.J. Watt. The Steelers may be 2.5-point road underdogs, but they have beaten the Colts in seven-straight meetings.
With both teams averaging 17 or fewer points per game on offense, seeing this low total of 39 points shouldn’t be surprising. They lean heavily on their defenses, as both teams rank above average in defensive DVOA per FootballOutsiders. This could be a low-scoring game, but there is still an edge to be had in the betting markets.
Picking a parlay for tonight’s game is super easy with the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, which leads to plus-expected value wagers for this primetime showdown.
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Colts vs. Steelers Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay, the Parlay IQ tool will calculate the expected win rate as you add more wagers to your bet slip. It then compares the projected odds to the actual odds on FanDuel, identifying how much value you’re getting on each wager.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Najee Harris Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
Steelers backup running back Jaylen Warren will not play this week after suffering a hamstring injury last week after only three snaps. That will again pave the way for a hefty workload for Najee Harris, who played a season-high 67 snaps last week. With that much opportunity, his overs look fantastic tonight.
Harris has seen back-to-back games with 20 rushing attempts and tied his season-high with six targets last game. He has 26 receiving yards in two of his previous three games, and quarterback Kenny Pickett is getting more comfortable not taking as many risks. This player prop was the best value in this game as it landed over in our sims nearly 70% of the time.
The Colts’ defense ranks sixth against the run and 14th against the pass in terms of DVOA. With such a low team total and a tough matchup, it is tough to take too many overs, but with how much Harris will play, this feels like one of the safest bets on the board. Start this parlay with Harris over 17.5 receiving yards.
Jonathan Taylor Over 13.5 Receiving Yards
Flipping to the other side of the ball, running back Jonathan Taylor is also a strong candidate to reach his over on his receiving yards. New interim head coach Jeff Saturday has fed Taylor like a bell cow, with back-to-back weeks of 22 rushing attempts and six total targets. He also has a touchdown in both weeks after not scoring since Week 1.
Taylor has gone over this receiving prop in half of his games played. Like the Colts, the Steelers’ defense is much better against the run than the pass. They rank seventh in rush DVOA and 18th in pass DVOA. They also allow 272.1 passing yards per game, which ranks second-highest in the league.
Even though the Steelers’ defense is much better with Watt back in the lineup, this is still a spot where Taylor can thrive through the air. If Taylor is struggling on the ground, they will ensure he gets the ball in space because he is their best player and best bet to move the ball.
Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline
Not only have the Steelers dominated this matchup against the Colts in recent years, but they have also won 12 of their last 14 games on Monday Night Football. They finally get a break from the gauntlet schedule, and their defense looks so much better with Watt back in the lineup. Taking the Steelers’ moneyline is a great way to increase the potential payout on this parlay.
That said, If this line gets to +3.0, I will take that instead of the moneyline. With the line currently under a field goal, it makes more sense to take them moneyline given how successful they have been in primetime and in this matchup. The Steelers have also covered the spread in five of their last six games against the Colts.
With so much positive momentum going toward the Steelers, it is hard not to take them moneyline despite being on the road. The Steelers have a remaining schedule of seven teams with a record of 35-43-1, so it’s time for them to go on a run.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
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Based on their simulations, Parlay IQ places the true odds on this parlay at +614, while FanDuel is offering +612. That’s not a huge difference, but I’m bullish on its chances of hitting.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
