Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Cash games, in particular, have gotten especially tough. You can try your luck in 50/50s or double-ups, but those contests are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there’s no guarantee that you’re not going to get scooped by a shark.
Luckily, StatHero gives DFS players a new option for cash games. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a set lineup of your choosing. That means you know exactly whom you’re facing in advance and can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I don’t know about you, but I definitely like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea using the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and teams to fade on StatHero in Week 7.
Notable Pricing Discrepancies
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find notable misprices compared to player projections in our Player Models. However, you won’t always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you are targeting. You still may be able to use a player who is not on this list but is projected for more raw points based on your strategy for building out your roster vs. the opposing lineup.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert – QB10 on StatHero, QB5 on FantasyLabs
The high has been high for Herbert this season, but the low has been low. He went for 45.82 DraftKings points two games ago then followed that up with a 12-point stinker. The Chargers are coming off their bye so they should be prepared for their matchup against the Patriots. The Vegas Dashboard has the Chargers implied for a healthy 27 points as the total is 48.5. The Patriots are 14th in pass defense DVOA and 22nd in adjusted sack rate.
Jimmy Garoppolo – QB18 on StatHero, QB28 on FantasyLabs
This game has a slate-low 39.5 total with the 49ers implied for 21.5 points. Garoppolo has not scored more than 18 DraftKings points in any contest, and his last two have gone under 10. He will likely throw fewer than 30 times in this one, and he doesn’t have much in the way of rushing prowess to prop up the floor.
Running Back
Najee Harris – RB14 on StatHero, RB5 on FantasyLabs
The matchup is a difficult one as the Browns are third in rush defense DVOA, but sometimes talent and opportunity trump matchup. Harris has averaged a +9 Plus/Minus and exceeded point expectations 90% of the time this season. Over the last two games, he’s rushed 23 and 24 times for 122 and 81 yards. He’s also well involved in the passing game as he’s garnered 10, seven, five, and seven targets over the last four games. On the season, he has 11 rushes and 12 targets in the red zone.
Wide Receiver
Deebo Samuel – WR7 on StatHero, WR14 on FantasyLabs
Over the last three games, Deebo has produced gems of 7-of-11 for 100 yards with a touchdown and 8-of-12 for 156 with two touchdowns. This game has a sub-40 O/U so there likely won’t be too much passing volume. Could he go off? Sure, as he’s that good, but he’d need to be hyper-efficient and/or break off a big one.
AJ Brown – WR9 on StatHero, WR20 on FantasyLabs
Brown has picked it up the last two games after having a subpar season. He caught eight of nine targets for 133 yards a touchdown last week and hauled in seven of nine targets for 91 yards the prior game. The Colts are 22nd in pass defense DVOA so things are looking good for this week. Not so fast. In five career games against the Colts, Brown has averaged 8.44 points and posted a negative 5.55 Plus/Minus. He’s gone for fewer than eight DraftKings points in four of five meetings.
Terry McLaurin – WR15 on StatHero, WR7 on FantasyLabs
The range of outcomes is wide with McLaurin as he has four games with double-digit targets and three games over 100 yards. On the flip side, he’s gone under 65 yards in four games with a low of 28. That said, he gets a good matchup against a Broncos team that is 27th in pass-defense DVOA and 21st in Adjusted Sack Rate.
DJ Moore – WR16 on StatHero, WR6 on FantasyLabs
The poor play of Sam Darnold has really crimped the production for Moore. That is probably why he is ranked so low on StatHero. That said, he’s received at least seven targets in every game this season with five above 10. He’s gone over 100 yards twice and now gets a matchup against a Falcons team that is 30th in pass-defense DVOA. Oh, this game will also be played on the fast track in Atlanta.
Tight End
Gerald Everett – TE17 on StatHero, TE25 on FantasyLabs
Most of the tight-end rankings are pretty close to each other, so Everett it is. He’s received three targets in each of the last two games and has had snap counts of 48% and 59%. Seattle is 22nd in Pass Rate, and that includes the games with Russell Wilson.
Teams to Target
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. For starters, you are allowed to duplicate a specified number of your opponent’s picks. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the lineup. I would recommend using as many of the duplicated players as possible. Then, we can pick on the players in our opponent’s lineup that are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller contests for this reason. In the 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 contests, there are fewer variables in play with fewer players, which makes it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero utilizes tight end premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which awards bonus points for longer touchdowns.
Deuces Wild (Ja’Marr Chase and Chris Godwin)
I’m selecting Ja’Marr Chase at the MVP slot so the block is in place. This makes the contest a 1v1 with Chris Godwin against Terry McLaurin, who has a higher projection in the Player Model. The Broncos are 24th in pass-defense DVOA and 21st in adjusted sack rate.
Swift Kick in the Scott (D’Andre Swift, Dalvin Cook, Boston Scott)
I went over Najee Harris earlier. His projection is similar to Swift but at a much cheaper price. Alvin Kamara has a slightly better projection than Dalvin Cook, and the savings allow us to upgrade from Boston Scott to Zack Moss, who has an almost five-point projection advantage.
