Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Cash games, in particular, have gotten especially tough. You can try your luck in 50/50s or double-ups, but those contests are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there’s no guarantee that you’re not going to get scooped by a shark.
Luckily, StatHero gives DFS players a new option for cash games. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a set lineup of your choosing. That means you know exactly who you’re facing in advance and can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I don’t know about you, but I definitely like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea using the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and teams to fade on StatHero in Week 7.
Notable Pricing Discrepancies
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find notable misprices compared to our player projections in our Player Models. However, you won’t always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you are targeting. You still may be able to use a player who is not on this list but is projected for more raw points based on your strategy for building out your roster vs. the opposing lineup.
Quarterback
There aren’t any egregious pricing spreads at the quarterback position this week.
Sam Darnold – QB17 on StatHero, QB11 on FantasyLabs
I get it. Darnold has been bad the last two games, posting scores of 17.08 and 9.08 DraftKings points. That said, the Giants are 26th in pass defense DVOA and 23rd in adjusted sack rate. Prior to the last two games, Darnold scored at least 20 DraftKings points in every contest. Has the league figured him out, or has it just been two bad games? Only time will tell, but this looks to be a decent bounce-back spot.
Running Back
Chuba Hubbard – RB12 on StatHero, RB5 on FantasyLabs
The Player Model loves the Panthers this week, huh? The Vegas Dashboard has Carolina implied for 23 points and favored by three points. Over the last two games, Hubbard has rushed 24 times for 101 yards and 16 for 61 yards with a touchdown. He’s also received three and six targets. On the season, he has a total of seven rushes and two targets in the red zone. The Giants are 27th in rush defense DVOA.
Josh Jacobs – RB19 on StatHero, RB10 on FantasyLabs
It feels icky writing up Jacobs because of his lack of involvement in the passing game. That said, he’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in all four games he’s played and scored a touchdown in the past two. The Eagles, usually one of the better run defense units in the league, have really struggled this season and are 25th in rush defense DVOA. The Raiders are implied for a healthy 25.75 points and are three-point favorites, so there should be opportunities for Jacobs to fall into the end zone.
Damien Harris – RB26 on StatHero, RB16 on FantasyLabs
Like Jacobs above, Harris doesn’t contribute much in the passing game, but he gets carries in the right game script. The Patriots are favored by seven points over the Jets with an implied total of 25 points. Harris should get plenty of carries in this one. He has one game with over 20 carries and has eclipsed the 100-yard mark twice this season. He has a rushing touchdown in each of the last two games, and 11 total red-zone carries on the season. The Jets are 17th in rush defense DVOA.
Wide Receiver
DJ Moore – WR14 on StatHero, WR4 on FantasyLabs
The disrespect! Fine, I get it since Sam Darnold has been brutal the past two weeks. Unlike running backs, wide receivers are entirely dependent upon the quarterback’s play. Darnold is primed for a bounce-back as the matchup is favorable. Moore should be the primary beneficiary. He has four games with double-digit targets and received 13 last week.
Sterling Shepard – WR23 on StatHero, WR8 on FantasyLabs
The matchup is a tough one since the Panthers are seventh in pass defense DVOA. That said, Shepard garnered 14 targets in his return from injury, and both Kenny Golladay and Kadarius are not expected to play. Prior to his injury, he caught seven of nine passes for 113 yards and a touchdown and nine of 10 targets for 94 yards.
Brandin Cooks – WR24 on StatHero, WR9 on FantasyLabs
As with Shepard, the matchup is a difficult one. The Cardinals are second in pass defense DVOA. The Texans are going to have to throw in this one, though, because the Cardinals are implied for 32.25 points and favored by 17.5 points. Cooks has target counts of seven, 14, 11, seven, five, and 13 on the season. He’s gone over 100 yards twice. He should see double-digit targets in this one as well.
Ja’Marr Chase – WR5 on StatHero, WR15 on FantasyLabs
Chase has been great this season, but he primarily relies on the deep ball for production. The Ravens are one of the better teams in limiting the deep ball as the DADOT (Average depth of target as a defender) is 8.0, 12th-best in the league. Baltimore also is 11th-best in pressure percentage, so there may not be too much time for Joe Burrow to chuck it deep.
Tight End
O.J. Howard – TE31 on StatHero, TE12 on FantasyLabs
Howard is coming off a game where he caught six of seven targets for 49 yards and a touchdown. Rob Gronkowski is out again, while Antonio Brown was also ruled out. That would put Howard third in the passing tree pecking order. He out-snapped Cameron Brate, 49 to 44, last week and out-targeted him seven to four.
Teams to Target
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. For starters, you are allowed to duplicate a specified number of your opponent’s picks. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the lineup. I would recommend using as many of the duplicated players as possible. Then, we can pick on the players in our opponent’s lineup that are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller contests for this reason. In the 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 contests, there are fewer variables in play with fewer players, which makes it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero utilizes tight end premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which awards bonus points for longer touchdowns.
Full Mooney (Cooper Kupp, Deandre Hopkins, Darnell Mooney)
I usually like to block, but it wasn’t possible for this contest. No worries. Davante Adams is projected for a couple of more points than Kupp. The Player Model is low on Hopkins this week. That’s probably due to the high spread, so more James Conner. Brandin Cooks is projected for about the same as Hopkins. The Player Model loves Shepard this week, and so do I since he should get a ton of targets. He’s projected for around three more points than Moody.
Rod Tidwell (Ja’Marr Chase, Deebo Samuel, Brandin Cooks)
I went over why the Player Model is not high on Chase earlier. DJ Moore has a higher projection by four points while being $500 cheaper. Calvin Ridley has a similar projection to Deebo at $100 more expensive. Sterling Shepard and Brandin Cooks have a similar projection for a similar price as well. So, this contest comes down to Chase vs. Moore.
