Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Cash games, in particular, have gotten especially tough. You can try your luck in 50/50s or double-ups, but those contests are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there’s no guarantee that you’re not going to get scooped by a shark.
Luckily, StatHero gives DFS players a new option for cash games. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a set lineup of your choosing. That means you know exactly who you’re facing in advance and can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I don’t know about you, but I definitely like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea using the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and teams to fade on StatHero in Week 5.
Notable Pricing Discrepancies
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find notable misprices compared to our player projections in our Player Models. However, you won’t always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you are targeting. You still may be able to use a player who is not on this list but is projected for more raw points based on your strategy for building out your roster vs. the opposing lineup.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts – QB14 on StatHero, QB4 on FantasyLabs
The matchup isn’t great as the Panthers have a good defense. That said, the floor is high for Hurts due to his rushing prowess. Despite only going 12-of-23 for 190 yards against the 49ers, he rushed 10 times for 82 yards and a touchdown. He’s rushed seven, 10, nine, and eight times this season and produced at least 20 DraftKings points in every game. Over the last month, Hurts has averaged a +5.3 Plus/Minus and exceeded points expectations 100% of the time.
Daniel Jones – QB15 on StatHero, QB7 on FantasyLabs
As with Hurts, Jones has provided a high floor due to his running ability. He’s rushed six, nine, eight, and four times for a total of 188 yards with two touchdowns. Dallas is implied for 29.5 points according to the Vegas Dashboard, so Jones will likely have to be aggressive in this one. He’s coming off an impressive passing performance last week against a Saints defense that is sixth in pass defense DVOA – 28-of-40 for 402 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.
Trey Lance – QB17 on StatHero, QB9 on FantasyLabs
There’s still a chance that Jimmy Garoppolo starts, so Lance would not be viable in that scenario. The matchup is tough as Arizona is ninth in pass defense DVOA and eighth in adjusted sack rate. Lance is still a raw passer as the accuracy and reads are still off at times. That said, it’s the rushing prowess that elevates him up the rankings. He rushed seven times for 41 yards last week and, if he starts, he will likely get many schemed runs with opportunities in the red zone. The Player Model has him projected for the highest Plus/Minus at the position.
Taylor Heineke – QB29 on StatHero, QB15 on FantasyLabs
The matchup is a tough one as the Saints are sixth in pass defense DVOA. The Saints are also 30th in offensive pace, according to Sharp Football Stats. That said, the Saints are second in rush defense DVOA, so Heineke should have plenty of chances to throw. He’s scored at least 20 DraftKings points in each of the last three games and has some rushing ability as well with three, four, eight, and five this season.
Running Back
James Robinson – RB15 on StatHero, RB7 on FantasyLabs
This game has a healthy over/under of 49, so plenty of points should be scored. The Titans are 16th in rush defense DVOA and 21st in pass DVOA against the running back position. In addition, both teams play fast as they are fourth and sixth in offensive pace.
Robinson has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in each of the last two games as he’s rushed 15 times for 88 yards and a touchdown while carrying 18 times for 78 yards and two touchdowns last week. The passing game involvement has been up and down, but he’s garnered six, three, six, and two targets on the season. He has seen a total of six red-zone carries the past two games and punched in three.
Carlos Hyde did not play last week and looks to be on track to return, so some usage could dissipate for Robinson. That said, he should still get the bulk of the work.
Chubba Hubbard – RB47 on StatHero, RB13 on FantasyLabs
StatHero has Christian McCaffrey as their number one running back, so they must feel good about him playing. All signs look good on that front, but he still has not been officially ruled as the starter. If he’s unable to go, then Hubbard makes a great play because he is buried in the rankings.
Has Chubbard been great in his time as a starter? No, as he only carried 13 times for 57 yards while catching all two of his targets for 14 yards. That said, he did receive a red-zone carry and got three against the Texans the week before after McCaffrey went down with the injury.
The price at $4,100 is just too cheap against an Eagles’ run defense that hasn’t been as stout compared to past history.
Wide Receiver
DJ Moore – WR9 on StatHero, WR2 on FantasyLabs
Moore has received eight, 11, 12, and 12 targets this season. He’s gone over 100 yards in each of the last two games and scored two touchdowns in the most recent one. He’s averaged a +8.98 Plus/Minus and exceeded points expectations 100% of the time. Now he faces an Eagles team that is 24th in pass defense DVOA. There’s always the chance that defenses start bracketing Moore, which could mean it’s Robby Anderson week, so keep that in mind.
Keenan Allen – WR13 on StatHero, WR4 on FantasyLabs
This season, Allen has received 13, eight, 12, and 11 targets and has gone over 100 yards in two games. He’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in every game and has averaged a positive 1.67 Plus/Minus. Now he faces a Browns team that is 25th in pass defense DVOA.
Ja’Marr Chase – WR23 on StatHero, WR11 on FantasyLabs
Chase has target counts of seven, four, five, and nine on the season. That said, he’s scored four touchdowns and exceeded double-digit DraftKings points in every contest. Now he goes against a Packers team that will be without their best cornerback in Jaire Alexander.
Tight End
Cameron Brate – TE7 on StatHero, TE23 on FantasyLabs
Rob Gronkowski is out, but Brate played on 64% of the snaps last week while Howard played 65% of the snaps. Brate did out-target Howard, 6-1, but he only caught two of them for 29 yards.
Hunter Henry – TE18 on StatHero, TE10 on FantasyLabs
Henry has received three, four, six, and five targets this season. He has two red-zone targets on converted one last week. The Texans are 29th in pass defense DVOA and 29th against the tight end position.
Teams to Target
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. For starters, you are allowed to duplicate a specified number of your opponent’s picks. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the lineup. I would recommend using as many of the duplicated players as possible. Then, we can pick on the players in our opponent’s lineup that are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller contests for this reason. In the 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 contests, there are fewer variables in play with fewer players, which makes it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero utilizes tight end premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which awards bonus points for longer touchdowns.
Stefon Yo Neck (Darren Waller and Stefon Diggs)
This one seems pretty straightforward to me. Waller is projected for 16.43 points, while Diggs is projected for 19.34. Saquon Barkley is projected for 18.2 points, while Derrick Henry is projected for 24.7 points. I will gladly roster two running backs with high usage over a tight end and a wide receiver.
Emmerson’s Pick (Darren Waller and Kirk Cousins)
After the 19-target game in Week 1, Waller has garnered seven in each of the last three games. He’s scored 11.5, 10.4, and 15 DraftKings points over that span. Cousins is projected for 21.79 points, but Daniel Jones is projected for 21.06 and is $900 cheaper. That allows me to go up to Derrick Henry, who is projected for 8.27 points more than Waller.
