Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Cash games, in particular, have gotten especially tough. You can try your luck in 50/50s or double-ups, but those contests are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there’s no guarantee that you’re not going to get scooped by a shark.
Luckily, StatHero gives DFS players a new option for cash games. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a set lineup of your choosing. That means you know exactly who you’re facing in advance and can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I don’t know about you, but I definitely like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea using the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and teams to fade on StatHero in Week 4.
Notable Pricing Discrepancies
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find notable misprices compared to our player projections in our Player Models. However, you won’t always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you are targeting. You still may be able to use a player who is not on this list but is projected for more raw points based on your strategy for building out your roster vs. the opposing lineup.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts – QB15 on StatHero, QB6 on FantasyLabs
We saw what Hurts did against the Cowboys on Monday Night. Yuck. That said, he still ended up with 25.54 DraftKings points as he was a garbage-time hero. He passed for 326 yards with two touchdowns and rushed nine times for 35 yards. The Chiefs are implied for a whopping 30.75 points while the Eagles are at 23.75, so points should be scored in this one.
Running Back
Najee Harris – RB8 on StatHero, RB3 on FantasyLabs
The Steelers have one of the worst run-blocking units in the league (28th according to PFF), and Harris has only 16, 10, and 14 rushes in the first three games. He is one of the few running backs in the league that is on the field in all scenarios, though, and he’s been making his hay in the passing game lately.
He caught 14 of his 19 targets for 102 yards last week and hauled in five passes for 43 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. Now, Diontae Johnson was out last week, and he is expected back for this one, but JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool have been limited in practice. Regardless, he’s an integral of the passing game and doesn’t come off the field.
The Packers are implied for 26.25 points, so the Steelers offense will likely have to be aggressive.
Wide Receiver
Terrace Marshall – WR69 on StatHero, WR36 on FantasyLabs
The Vegas Dashboard has this game with a healthy over/under of 51.5 points. The Panthers are implied for 23.75. Over the first three games, the snap count for Marshall has been 53%, 51%, and 62%. A 60% to 70% snap count is within the range of outcomes with Christian McCaffrey out.
Marshall has garnered six, three, and five targets which are second amongst the wide receiver group. The Player Model has him with a +2.51 projected Plus/Minus, which is the sixth-highest in the wide receiver pool.
Jakobi Meyers – WR34 on StatHero, WR22 on FantasyLabs
Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the league, so opponents don’t even bother. Bill Belichick is no dummy, so he will travel the path of least resistance.
The Bucs are implied for 28 points, so the Patriots will have to be aggressive in this one. Meyers has received nine, six, and 14 targets this season. The 29 targets are a team-high with no one else above 18.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski – TE12 on StatHero, TE8 on FantasyLabs
There weren’t any obvious price discrepancies at the tight end position, so Gronkowski it is. The matchup isn’t great as the Patriots are sixth in DVOA against tight ends, and you know Bill Belichick is going to scheme him away, especially in the red zone. That said, he does have eight, five, and seven targets in the first three games this season.
Also, note that Gronl is now considered a game-time decision on Sunday.
Teams to Target
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. For starters, you are allowed to duplicate a specified number of your opponent’s picks. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the lineup. I would recommend using as many of the duplicated players as possible. Then, we can pick on the players in our opponent’s lineup that are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller contests for this reason. In the 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 contests, there are fewer variables in play with fewer players, which makes it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero utilizes tight end premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which awards bonus points for longer touchdowns.
Some Guy Named Kyler (Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert)
The Player Model has Murray as the third highest-projected quarterback. I think it’s within the range of outcomes that he disappoints this weekend. Per the Trends tool, Murray has faced the Rams four times in his career. He’s averaged 14.13 points in those contests for a -6.51 Plus/Minus. The Consistency Rating has been 25%.
Jalen Hurts is $500 cheaper and has a similar Floor/Ceiling Projection as Murray. Pairing him with Patrick Mahomes provides great correlation because if Mahomes does well, then that will force Hurts to be aggressive to keep pace. Hurts has a high floor due to his rushing prowess, and we saw what he did on Monday Night Football in garbage time.
Mahomes has the second-highest projection at the position according to the Player Model.
Scratch My Dak (Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Deebo Samuel, and Michael Carter)
This is a risky one because Josh Allen and Derrick Henry are the highest-projected players at their respective positions. So here’s my thinking on this one.
Use Patrick Mahomes in the MVP slot, so there’s an automatic 0.5 points. Jalen Hurts is the sixth highest-projected quarterback and, if Mahomes goes nuts, then Hurts will have to respond since they are playing each other.
I’m fading Allen because I think there’s a chance that the Bills won’t be as pass-happy against the Texans because Houston probably won’t be able to answer back on offense, and they have one of the worst run defenses in the league.
So, Zack Moss is leverage against Allen. I love the Vikings-Browns game environment and think Minnesota will have to throw a lot because the Browns will put up points, and they have one of the best run defenses in the league, so Justin Jefferson makes sense. Finally, Diontae Johnson has a huge advantage over Michael Carter.
If Henry doesn’t go bonkers and Moss scores the touchdowns instead of Allen, then this lineup should have a good chance of winning.
