Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Cash games, in particular, have gotten especially tough. You can try your luck in 50/50s or double-ups, but those contests are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there’s no guarantee that you’re not going to get scooped by a shark.
Luckily, StatHero gives DFS players a new option for cash games. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a set lineup of your choosing. That means you know exactly who you’re facing in advance and can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I don’t know about you, but I definitely like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea using the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and teams to fade on StatHero in Week 3.
Notable Pricing Discrepancies
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find notable misprices compared to our player projections in our Player Models. However, you won’t always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you are targeting. You still may be able to use a player who is not on this list but is projected for more raw points based on your strategy for building out your roster vs. the opposing lineup.
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater – QB17 on StatHero, QB11 on FantasyLabs
No one gets that warm and fuzzy feeling when thinking about rostering Bridgewater for fantasy, but he has exceeded salary-based expectations in both games, sporting a Plus/Minus +6.08 and +3.85 to open the season. That translated to 20.46 and 24.22 DraftKings points. Bridgewater is the 17th-highest priced quarterback on StatHero but has the 11th-highest projection on FantasyLabs.
Running Back
Nick Chubb – RB9 on StatHero, RB5 on FantasyLabs
The matchup isn’t a great one as the Bears are 11th in rush defense DVOA. That said, the Bears are starting a rookie quarterback and are seven-point underdogs, according to the Vegas Dashboard. Per the Trends Tool, Chubb has played in five games in which the Browns were a home favorite by at least seven points. In those contests, he’s averaged 21.7 DraftKings points with a Plus/Minus of +4.53 and a Consistency Rating of 80%.
He is the fifth-highest projected running back on FantasyLabs but the ninth running back on StatHero.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp – WR10 on StatHero, WR2 on FantasyLabs
The Bucs-Rams game is tied for the highest total on the slate at 55. The Bucs defense is an elite run-stuffing unit, and Tom Brady should put up points, so plenty of passing should be on the menu for the Rams. In two games this season, Kupp has received 10 and 11 targets and caught seven and nine passes for 108 and 163 yards respectively. He’s also scored three touchdowns on the year.
Kupp has played the Bucs twice in the last two years and caught nine of 15 targets with a touchdown in 2019 and 11 of 13 targets for 145 yards last season.
Robert Woods – WR20 on StatHero, WR10 on FantasyLabs
Why does StatHero dislike the Rams wide receivers so much this week? As mentioned above, the Rams will likely be passing a ton in this one. While Woods hasn’t been as prolific as Kupp to start the season, he caught 13 of 15 targets for 164 yards in 2019 against the Bucs, then hauled in 12 of 15 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown last season. The target tree is so concentrated for the Rams, and the volume should be elevated this week.
Tight End
Jack Doyle – TE25 on StatHero, TE11 on FantasyLabs
The matchup is terrible for Doyle as the Titans are first in DVOA against tight ends and the Opponent Plus/Minus is a league-low -5.3. In addition, it’s not like Doyle has lit the world on fire with three catches on four targets for 21 yards in Week 1 and five catches on eight targets for 64 yards in Week 2.
That said, Doyle is second on the team in targets, and there’s a chance that both Jacob Eason and Brett Hundley play meaningful snaps this weekend, which could funnel extra targets his way.
However, Doyle’s low floor makes him more of a last resort if you find yourself needing extra salary.
Teams to Target
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. For starters, you are allowed to duplicate a specified number of your opponent’s picks. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the lineup. I would recommend using as many of the duplicated players as possible since they’re going to be priced at a discount. Then, we can pick on the players in our opponent’s lineup that are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller contests for this reason. In the 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 contests, there are fewer variables in play with less players, which makes it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero utilizes tight end premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which awards bonus points for longer touchdowns.
Pinky Fingers (Tyreek Hill, Jalen Hurts, Cooper Kupp, and Rondale Moore)
Kupp is mispriced according to our model. His projection is right below Hill’s. We can slot him in the Captain slot, which blocks our opponent, and we get the 1.5 multiplier.
Hill has played the Chargers eight times in his career. He has a 62.5% Consistency Rating and averaged 17.78 DraftKings points. Over the last two seasons, though, he’s gone for 21.8, 10.1, and zero DraftKings points. Granted, he did get injured in that last one.
The Chargers play a lot of zone and try and keep everything in front of them. Therefore, big plays could be tough to come by. Kupp has a chance of outscoring Hill. If he does, that’s tremendous leverage because of the $2,500 savings and the fact that Kupp is rostered in the flex position for our opponent.
Matthew Stafford is projected for only a few points less than Hurts, but we get the correlation with Kupp.
Due to Hill’s price savings, we can slot in Ceedee Lamb and Mark Andrews instead of going down to Moore.
Ky Goes to the Runner (DK Metcalf and Kyler Murray)
This one is straightforward. We can duplicate Murray and go with Kupp instead of Metcalf. Kupp is projected for two more points in our models over Metcalf.
