Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Cash games, in particular, have gotten especially tough. You can try your luck in 50/50s or double-ups, but those contests are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there’s no guarantee that you’re not going to get scooped by a shark.
Luckily, StatHero gives DFS players a new option for cash games. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a set lineup of your choosing. That means you know exactly whom you’re facing in advance and can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I don’t know about you, but I definitely like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea using the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and teams to fade on StatHero in Week 10.
Notable Pricing Discrepancies
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find notable misprices compared to player projections in our Player Models. However, you won’t always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you are targeting. You still may be able to use a player who is not on this list but is projected for more raw points based on your strategy for building out your roster vs. the opposing lineup.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert – QB9 on StatHero, QB5 on FantasyLabs
There were no egregious spreads in the quarterback pricing this week, so Herbert it is. The Vikings are third in both pass defense DVOA and adjusted sack rate, but the Chargers have the fifth-best passing offense according to PFF, and the Vegas Dashboard has this game with the second-highest total on the slate at 53.5. and a spread of only 3.5 points. Points should be scored in this one.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey – RB1 on StatHero, RB6 on FantasyLabs
Arizona is seventh in rush defense DVOA while being ninth against pass-catching running backs. McCaffrey received 14 carries and five targets in his game back from injury last week. There’s uncertainty as to whether or not he receives a full workload. Why would the Panthers push him at this point? In addition, PJ Walker will be starting for the Panthers, so sustained drives could be hard to come by.
Jonathan Taylor – RB5 on StatHero, RB1 on FantasyLabs
Taylor has averaged a positive 13.21 Plus/Minus and exceed point expectations 100% of the time this season. He’s gone for at least 20 DraftKings points in each of the last six games with three above 30. The Colts are favored by 10.5 points at home, so the game script should be favorable for Taylor to smash once again.
Ezekiel Elliot – RB9 on StatHero, RB5 on FantasyLabs
Atlanta is 27th in rush defense DVOA, and the Cowboys are favored by 9.5 points at home while the game has the highest total on the slate at 55. There should be plenty of opportunities for Elliot to score those fantasy goodies in what should be a favorable game script and environment.
Cordarrelle Patterson – RB15 on StatHero, RB8 on FantasyLabs
This game has the highest total on the slate, and the usage pie is fairly concentrated with Calvin Ridley out. While Patterson has not seen massive usage, he’s seen around 14-20 opportunities in each of the last seven games and been super efficient with his touches. He’s produced at least 14 DraftKings points in each of those contests, with three above 20 and a high of 34.6.
Wide Receiver
Deebo Samuel – WR15 on StatHero, WR9 on FantasyLabs
The matchup is tough as the Rams are fifth in pass-defense DVOA. That said, Deebo has received at least eight targets in every game this season and three with at least 10. He’s gone over 100 yards four times and scored four touchdowns. The Rams are implied for 26.5 points, so the 49ers will likely have to be aggressive to keep pace. In two games last season against the Rams, Samuel caught 11 of 13 targets for 113 yards in one game and hauled in all six of his targets for 66 yards and a touchdown in the other.
Tyler Johnson – WR74 on StatHero, WR57 on FantasyLabs
Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are out for this one. Johnson has played in 67% and 64% of the snaps over the last two games and received two and six targets. Chris Godwin is now a game-time decision, so he could see more snaps and targets. Regardless, he’s going to be on the field a lot against a Football Team that is 31st in pass defense DVOA.
Tight End
Dan Arnold– TE14 on StatHero, TE9 on FantasyLabs
Darnold has received seven, 10, five, and eight targets over the last four games. He’s gone for at least 60 yards in three of those contests and had two red-zone targets. The Colts are second in rush-defense DVOA, so the Jags will likely have to tilt more towards the passing game in this one. In addition, they are 10.5 point underdogs. The way the Colts play defense, they take away receivers and funnel targets to tight ends and running backs.
Dallas Goedert – TE15 on StatHero, TE7 on FantasyLabs
Goedert has played in 93%, 68%, and 93% of the snaps since Zach Ertz was traded. He’s garnered five, seven, and six targets over that span while going for at least 70 yards in two of those contests. He is now one of the top pass-catching options of Jalen Hurts.
Teams to Target
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. For starters, you are allowed to duplicate a specified number of your opponent’s picks. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the lineup. I would recommend using as many of the duplicated players as possible. Then, we can pick on the players in our opponent’s lineup that are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller contests for this reason. In the 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 contests, there are fewer variables in play with fewer players, which makes it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero utilizes tight end premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which awards bonus points for longer touchdowns.
Week 10 QB Challenge (Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, and Tom Brady)
Tom Brady is my favorite quarterback this week so let’s block him and make this a 2v2. Taylor Heinicke is $1,000 cheaper than Wentz but is within one point of median projection. The cost-saving allows us to go up to Josh Allen, who has a three-point projection advantage over Prescott.
