Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Cash games, in particular, have gotten especially tough. You can try your luck in 50/50s or double-ups, but those contests are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there’s no guarantee that you’re not going to get scooped by a shark.
Luckily, StatHero gives DFS players a new option for cash games. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a set lineup of your choosing. That means you know exactly whom you’re facing in advance and can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I don’t know about you, but I definitely like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea using the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and teams to fade on StatHero in Week 14.
Notable Pricing Discrepancies
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find notable misprices compared to player projections in our Player Models. However, you won’t always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you are targeting. You still may be able to use a player who is not on this list but is projected for more raw points based on your strategy for building out your roster vs. the opposing lineup.
Quarterback
Josh Allen – QB7 on StatHero, QB1 on FantasyLabs
The Bucs are ninth in rush defense DVOA, but the Bills prefer to spread out defenses and put the ball in Allen’s hands anyway, so it’s a match made in heaven from that perspective. Now, the Bucs are also seventh in pass-defense DVOA, so it’s not like the path of least resistance is through the air, but the Vegas Dashboard has this game with the highest total at 53.5 points.
The Bills are implied for 25 points, and most of those should come from Allen, whether it be with his arm or legs. He’s rushed 75 times for 422 yards and three touchdowns while racking up 3216 yards through the air with 26 touchdowns. Allen does have five games with fewer than 20 DraftKings points, but he’s also gone over 30 three times with a high of 40.22.
Tom Brady – QB8 on StatHero, QB3 on FantasyLabs
Both the Bills and Bucs have good defenses, so it’s definitely within the range of outcomes that this game turns into a playoff-esque slugfest. This game could also shoot out. Brady has attempted at least 40 passes in eight games, with three above 50. He’s gone for at least 30 DraftKings points six times with a high of 40.74.
Running Back
Elijah Mitchell – RB14 on StatHero, RB3 on FantasyLabs
This discrepancy is likely injury-related as Mitchell is questionable, and there is a chance that Jeff Wilson starts.
Antonio Gibson – RB9 on StatHero, RB4 on FantasyLabs
Over the last four games, Gibson has carried 23, 29, 19, and 24 times. He’s received two targets and 24 carries in the red zone over that span, but it’s been the passing game involvement that has been most intriguing. He’s received six and seven targets over the last two games. Now, JD McKissic missed last game and is set to return this week, but two weeks ago when both played, Gibson still received seven targets. Dallas is 19th in rush defense DVOA.
Josh Jacobs – RB16 on StatHero, RB8 on FantasyLabs
The last time Jacobs faced the Chiefs, he carried seven times for 16 yards, which translated to 8.6 DraftKings points. In that game, though, he did receive five targets with one carry and one target in the red zone. Over the last four weeks, Jacobs has received nine, four, seven, and five targets. And that was with Kenyan Drake, who is now out for the season. Jalen Richard is also questionable, so Jacobs could get all the work this week. The Chiefs are 26th in rush defense DVOA.
James Conner – RB24 on StatHero, RB17 on FantasyLabs
Sure, the Rams are second in rush defense DVOA, but the volume is hard to ignore for Conner. Over the last four games, he’s carried at least 20 times in three of those contests. He’s had two, six, four, and five targets while getting four, four, one, and five red-zone carries. This game has a total of 51.5 points, with the Cardinals implied for 27 points. Conner should have plenty of opportunities to score fantasy goodies.
Sony Michel – RB8 on StatHero, RB26 on FantasyLabs
There is uncertainty as to if Darrell Henderson will be ready to go this week. Last week, Michel dominated the backfield with 24 rushes for 121 yards and a touchdown.
Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin – WR9 on StatHero, WR4 on FantasyLabs
StatHero is on the side of the defenses in this game, and I don’t hate that because it’s definitely within the range of outcomes. Godwin received 17 targets last week but, prior to that, he got five, six, and eight. He’s received double-digit targets in five games this season and gone over 100 yards four times. The Bills are first in pass-defense DVOA, but it will be interesting to see how they perform without their top cornerback in Tre’Davious White.
Hunter Renfrow – WR23 on StatHero, WR11 on FantasyLabs
Renfrow has exceeded point expectations 80% of the time this season. Over the last two games, he’s received 10 and nine targets, converting those into nine and eight receptions for 102 and 134 yards. In the last meeting against Kansas City, he hauled in seven of nine targets for 46 yards and a touchdown.
Tee Higgins – WR24 on StatHero, WR12 on FantasyLabs
Higgins has also exceeded point expectations 80% of the time. San Francisco is third in rush defense DVOA, so the offensive attack for the Bengals should tilt towards the air, where the 49ers are 17th in pass-defense DVOA. Over the last two games, Higgins has gone for 26.4 and 31.8 DraftKings points, hauling in nine of 14 targets for 138 yards and a touchdown in one game and six of eight targets for 114 yards and a touchdown in the other.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts – TE8 on StatHero, TE4 on FantasyLabs
I side with the StatHero ranking here. While Pitts has received at least five targets in all but one game this season, he’s scored double-digit DraftKings points only four times and gone over 100 yards only twice. The Panthers are middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to the position, but they are fifth in pass-defense DVOA and first in adjusted sack rate. With no Calvin Ridley, it’s been easier shading coverage towards Pitts.
Foster Moreau – TE20 on StatHero, TE15 on FantasyLabs
Darren Waller is still questionable, so Moreau could get his third start. While he disappointed last week with one reception on three targets for 34 yards, he did play 85% of the snaps. In his prior start, he caught six of six targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position.
Ricky Seals-Jones – TE16 on StatHero, TE21 on FantasyLabs
Seals-Jones is still questionable and limited in practices, but with Logan Thomas done for the season, he could garner the bulk of the snaps and targets for Washington. Dallas has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to the position.
Teams to Target
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. For starters, you are allowed to duplicate a specified number of your opponent’s picks. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the lineup. I would recommend using as many of the duplicated players as possible. Then, we can pick on the players in our opponent’s lineup that are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller contests for this reason. In the 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 contests, there are fewer variables in play with fewer players, which makes it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero utilizes tight end premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which awards bonus points for longer touchdowns.
Georgie Porgie (George Kittle, Tom Brady, Hunter Renfrow)
Alvin Kamara is $200 cheaper than Kittle but is projected for over three points, so this is a no-brainer. I will block Brady to make this a 2v2. The $200 savings from Kamara to Kittle allows us to use Jacobs against Renfrow, who is projected for more than a point more.
Russell Sprouts (Stefon Diggs, Russell Wilson)
Cam Newton has a projection within one point of Wilson, but he’s $2,000 cheaper. That saving allows us to upgrade Diggs to either Austin Ekeler or Tyreek Hill. Hill is projected for five points more than Diggs, while Ekeler is four points better.
