In this space each week I take a look at which teams, as a whole, are trending up through the lens of our advanced stats. Understanding which teams are hitting the ball hard, and whether they are producing or not, is a great way to determine which lineups may lend themselves to stacking.
It should go without saying, but each individual matchup needs to be evaluated on a daily basis. To ensure that you are using the best, most up-to-date information possible, be sure to check out the free Lineups page, free Trends tool, and Player Models.
In this State of the Stacks, I’ll be focusing on a single team and highlighting one particular player who has essentially broken the scale for the recent advanced stats that I so often lean on in these columns. The numbers are truly ridiculous, so I want to spend some time digging in a bit deeper than usual.
Tampa Bay Rays
To say that Evan Longoria’s previous week on the diamond was a successful one is to insult the concept of understatement. If ‘success’ looks like five home runs, nine RBIs, and a .464 batting average over the past seven games, then almost no one has ever been successful in MLB history:
Of course, box score production can be misleading at times. Enter our advanced stats. Over the last 15 days, Longoria has been in the 92nd percentile in Distance, Exit Velocity, and Hard Hit Differential Scores. It’s apparent that Longoria is not only producing fantasy statistics but is also making incredibly solid contact.
Will this past production translate into future value? The three advanced stats cited above have proved to be indicative of future fantasy success. If we look at batters with comparable lineup position (1-3) and recent advanced stats (90th percentile or higher in all three cited stats), the results have been positive.
With a Plus/Minus of +0.84 on DraftKings, this trend is certainly worth noting.
So Longoria’s the Best, Who are the Rest?
With his spot in the lineup, Longoria is a prime target for building stacks around. And luckily for us the batters directly above and below him in the order are also hitting the ball well.
I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen a stacked quartet of batters with combined advanced stats as impressive as these.
The biggest downside to targeting this lineup over the upcoming week will be the location of the majority of its games. Primarily playing at home, this collection of hitters averages 2.9 more DK points on the road than in Tampa Bay, largely due to a Park Factor that ranges from four to 23, depending on the handedness of the batters.
Be sure to take into account both their current hot-hitting ways and suboptimal Park Factors when determining if you want to stack the Rays this week.
