In this space each week I take a look at which teams, as a whole, are trending up through the lens of our advanced stats. Understanding which teams are hitting the ball hard, and whether they are producing or not, is a great way to determine which lineups may lend themselves to stacking.
It should go without saying, but each individual matchup needs to be evaluated on a daily basis. To ensure that you are using the best, most up-to-date information possible, be sure to check out the free Lineups page, free Trends tool, and Player Models.
Houston Astros
Set to face off against one of the most lucrative matchups available to opposing hitters over the next couple of days, the Astros have the potential makings of a quality stack, particularly early in the week.
Per our Trends tool, opposing batters on the season have managed a Plus/Minus of +1.15 against the Diamondbacks, third highest in the league.
Though only scheduled for a two-game set, the Astros’ bats will have the opportunity to face off against Robby Ray (he of a 1.67 WHIP) and Zach Greinke (who has now allowed a home run in four straight outings).
The Advanced Stats, an Alt(uve)ernate Viewpoint
While the premium price tag for a second baseman may be tough to stomach — particularly given much of his recent production, as seen in the widget below — Jose Altuve’s recent advanced stats are promising.
Over the last 15 days, Altuve’s Hard-Hit Differential Score sits in the 93rd percentile, and his Distance Differential Score places him in the 88th percentile. Based on these advanced stats, Altuve owns some readily apparent value and is a candidate for positive reversion.
Independent of batter matchup against opposing pitcher, the hitters with comparable recent advanced stats and lineup spots in the upper half of their teams’ batting orders have posted an average Plus/Minus of +0.70. Utilizing a player with Altuve’s impressive recent advanced stats in a good matchup will only increase your returns.
If we look to our stacking options on this team as a whole, there are a number who are hitting the ball well.
Mixing and matching the above four hitters with the always dangerous Carlos Correa and/or George Springer should make for a high Upside stack this week against the likes of the Diamondbacks and later the Athletics. Of course, be sure to check Marisnick’s availability on a daily basis.
Plus/Minus, Upside, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Milwaukee Brewers
For those who have never had the pleasure of visiting Wisconsin’s largest city, I’ll give you a quick synopsis:
- If breweries are your thing, you’ll be right at home.
- You’ll find an abundance of a very light-colored brick represented throughout much of the older areas of the city, known as Cream City brick.
Having spent a portion of my twenties living in the area, I can say that I gained an appreciation for only one of the two: Masonry isn’t really my thing. Still, the prevalence of the brick makes it impossible not to take notice if you spend any real time exploring the historical downtown.
Will the Cream Rise to the Top (and Can it Travel)?
Unlike many of the area’s domestic and craft brews, Cream City brick never really took off in surrounding areas, making its usage around Milwaukee all the more distinctive.
Similarly, the city’s baseball team hasn’t traveled all that well this year.
The Brewers may not have anyone with quite the elite recent advanced stats of Altuve, and the above home/road splits are certainly concerning, but what they do have is a quartet of batters with impressive Differentials.
One thing worth noting: Flores isn’t a regular starter. You’re most apt to see him in the lineup against opposing righties, against whom he has compiled just over 70 percent of his at-bats this season. But outside of him, we have three lineup staples who should be present almost every day.
The Brewers will spend the majority of their week in Philadelphia, taking on a Phillies team that has been average in terms of fantasy production allowed to opposing batters this year.
With Philadelphia scoring the fewest runs per game in the majors this season, and Milwaukee sitting in the middle of the pack, I would expect the majority of these games to come in with low implied Vegas totals. From an ownership arbitrage perspective, such a scenario could offer up an opportunity to exploit the low ownership often associated with such games.
With the core of this lineup swinging the bat well, a Brewers stack makes for a high-risk/high-reward play at a reasonable price.
