In this space each week I take a look at which teams, as a whole, are trending up through the lens of of our advanced stats. Understanding which teams are hitting the ball hard, and whether they are producing or not, is a great way to determine which lineups may lend themselves to stacking.
It should go without saying, but each individual matchup needs to be evaluated on a daily basis. To ensure that you are using the best, most up-to-date information possible, be sure to check out the free Lineups page and — for our subscribers — the Trends tool and Player Models.
The Outlier: Chris Herrmann, Backup Catcher
If you look at Chris Herrmann’s Consistency and Plus/Minus in the widget below, you’ll notice that his recent performance is more reflective of what we’d expect from an elite NBA player than a backup catcher:
What’s even more amazing is how Herrmann has been accumulating his production. A catcher by trade, Herrman has been logging starts in the outfield — and not just a corner outfield spot. The former Twin has now logged multiple starts in center field.
Herrmann is fairly athletic, but it’s a bold strategy to say the least. With David Peralta on the disabled list, the Diamondbacks have resolved to get another productive bat into the lineup, and using Herrmann all over the field is exactly how they’ve done it.
Regardless of the position he has played, Herrmann has produced as a batter. Even more ridiculous than his +7.02 Plus/Minus and 80 percent Consistency are his Hard-Hit Differential and Distance Differential Scores, both of which are in the 95th percentile (per our advanced stats).
In short: Whenever he plays, Herrmann is a great option at catcher, either as a standalone player . . . or a part of a Diamondbacks stack. [Editor’s Note: Sure, the Diamondstacks.]
Arizona Diamondbacks
In case you skipped the intro, I’ll summarize it for you: Chris Herrmann is hitting the ball hard right now.
And based upon how players with comparable stats have performed in the past, he has a decent chance to continue to produce fantasy statistics in the near future:
But of course one player does not a stack make. Fortunately, the Diamondbacks have a group of batters performing incredibly well right now.
Arizona has four players with a Hard-Hit Differential Score in the 87th percentile and three in the 95th percentile. Additionally, Segura, Herrmann, and Tomas have impressive Distance Differential Scores right now.
Herrmann’s emergence adds a slight stacking complication in that both he and Welington Castillo are eligible only as catchers. Thus, anyone attempting to stack this team will be forced to choose between the two players on nights when they’re both in the lineup.
While some DFS players might dislike this situation and others like it, what we have here is actually a great opportunity to stack a team that might be a bit chalky and to do so in a differentiated way. Since Castillo has the bigger name and bats ahead of Herrmann, ownership in general will either lean toward Castillo or be split roughly down the middle, and either of those occurrences can be leveraged.
Whenever Herrmann is active this week, he should be a part of a quality stack with Segura, Lamb, Tomas, and the always dangerous Paul Goldschmidt, as the Diamondbacks first play at home against the Yankees and later on the road against the Cardinals, who are allowing an average Plus/Minus of +0.67 to opposing batters hitting in the top six spots of the lineup.
Houston Astros
The top of the Astros lineup is always intriguing for stacking purposes, as they have a number of young players who have power and play at positions that generally lack home run potential.
Knowing all of this, the public tends to be quite fond of options such as Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. But with the way the top of this lineup is hitting the ball at the moment, it makes some sense to consider these players despite their general chalkiness.
Altuve, Springer, and Correa make up the top of the lineup for the Astros on most nights and all of them have Distance Differential Scores in the 92nd percentile and good Hard-Hit Differential Scores. It’s easy to see why this group is fairly popular.
On the road for the next week, all three will have advantageous Park Factors ranging from 44 to 65. DraftKings has increased their salaries, and so it’s possible that they could be rostered in a lower percentage of lineups than one would expect, especially Altuve and Correa, since DFS players typically don’t like to pay up for middle infielders.
If you stack these three, be sure to take alternative measures to help differentiate your lineups, especially if you see a high Vegas total attached to their game. You’ll need to find a few low-rostered players at other positions to help you erase away the affects of all that Astros chalk.
