In this space each week I’ll take a look at which teams, as a whole, are trending up through the lens of of our advanced stats. Understanding which teams are hitting the ball hard, and whether they are producing or not, is a great way to determine which lineups may lend themselves to stacking.
Now, it should go without saying, but each individual matchup needs to be evaluated on a daily basis. So while the players highlighted in this article may be hitting the ball particularly well, the inclusion of any given player in your lineup will ultimately come down to his specific matchup with the starting pitcher on any given day. To ensure that you are using the best information possible, be sure to check out the free Lineups page and — for our subscribers — the Trends and Player Models tools.
An Ode to Recent Advanced Stats
Someone recently asked me why I focus so intently on recent advanced stats within this series. I offered up the only reason anyone should need: They’re awesome. Why are they awesome? Because, quite simply, they add a ton of value for you, the subscriber.
Instead of jumping into the usual breakdown right away, I’m changing it up a bit. To illustrate the value that these advanced stats have, I’m swapping out one of our usual breakdowns for a quick exercise highlighting the difference between a DFS player who is utilizing some of our advanced tools and one who isn’t.
Taking your Research up a Notch
Let’s examine the factors (in Trends) that above-average DFS players consider when constructing their MLB lineups.
1. Lineup Order: “Lineup Order” filter, set to “1 to 5”
2. Pitching Matchup: “Opp WHIP Percentile” filter, set to “60 to 99”
3. Positive Platoon Splits: “ISO Diff” filter, set to “.1 to 1”
4. Park Factor: “Park Factor (Beta)” filter, set to “25 to 100”
Obviously this list is not exhaustive, but it does cover the majority of factors that many of us take into account on a rudimentary level: We want batters who are A) in the top half of their lineups and B) in positive situations.
So, on average, a DFS player researching for a pretty reasonable amount of time receives an average Plus/Minus of +1.18 DraftKings points. That’s our baseline.
The “Adv Stats – Recent” Filters: They’re Awesome
Now, to illustrate the value of our recent advanced data, let’s run through the scenarios below (the filters are all removed after each result is achieved, prior to adding the subsequent filters):
1. Add only a Hard-Hit (HH) Diff Score filter, set to “80 to 100”
Result: Avg Plus/Minus = +1.67. Value added: +0.49
2. Add only a Dist Diff Score filter, set to “80 to 100”
Result: Avg Plus/Minus = +1.70. Value added: +0.52
3. Add only an Exit Velocity (EV) Diff Score filter, set to “80 to 100”
Result: Avg Plus/Minus = +1.22. Value added: +0.04
4. Add both the Hard Hit Diff and Dist Diff Score filter, set both to “80 to 100”
Result: Avg Plus/Minus = +2.22. Value added: +1.04
5. Add the Hard Hit Diff, Dist Diff and Exit Velocity Diff Score filters, set all to “80 to 100”
Result: Avg Plus/Minus = +2.98. Value added: +1.18
As we can see, there’s a ton of value to be gained by utilizing these filters within the Trends tool, and they add hardly any extra time to your research. Of course, the more filters you add, the smaller your sample population (and current matches) will be, so also be sure to keep that in mind as you’re constructing trends.
Now let’s see which stack is primed to help push you to the top of a tournament leaderboard this week!
San Diego Padres
The Padres are generally not a team that most DFS players consider stacking in guaranteed prize pools, but if we examine that all-important Distance Differential Score highlighted above, they may intrigue us this week.
With five batters currently registering a Distance Differential in the 85th percentile, this lineup could thrive now that they’re set to spend the week away from Petco Park.
With games at both Wrigley Field and Miller Park over the next week, this collection of hitters will see Park Factors ranging from 32 to 64. For the three righties — Upton, Norris and Kemp — this road trip should provide a much needed boost, given that Petco has a Park Factor of zero for right-handed hitters.
Completely independent of the pitching matchup, we can see that players who A) have a Distance Differential Score in the 85th percentile, B) are in the top half of a lineup, and C) play in a stadium with a minimum Park Factor of 32 collectively register an average Plus/Minus of +0.56. Again, this is without factoring in handedness or pitcher quality.
The pricing of these five batters is quite appealing, and (aside from Jay) they have struggled to produce fantasy statistics of late. Using three or four of these batters (perhaps alongside a pricier stack or as a means to pay up for top-tier pitching) should allow you to gain a bit of differentiation without sacrificing much in terms of Upside.
