Stacks are important building blocks for daily fantasy baseball lineups because of the correlated upside batters on the same team provide, especially in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). In this piece, I leverage the FantasyLabs tools to examine the utility of our Stack Seeker, which is available in our Contest Dashboard.
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Individual Ownership vs. Stacks
There’s a ton of value in monitoring ownership levels for individual players, especially to see which players the sharps roster at a significantly higher rate than low-stakes speculators. To highlight this, let’s take a look at one of the best stacks from the first half of the 2018 MLB season.
The Rockies beat the Diamondbacks, 19-2, at Coors Field on July 11. In the 11-game main slate, Colorado had the highest implied total on the slate (6.4 runs). Even with ace pitchers Jacob deGrom and Chris Sale in the player pool, the Rockies were chalky.
Here’s the average ownership for the 1-5 hitters on July 11.
- 1. DJ LeMahieu: 15.52%
- 2. Charlie Blackmon: 21.01%
- 3. Nolan Arenado: 16.07%
- 4. Carlos Gonzalez: 23.58%
- 5. Trevor Story: 14.11%
While all of the batters had double-digit ownership rates individually, as a collective unit they had relatively little exposure, especially in the low-stakes GPPs. Using the Stack Seeker, here are those same 1-5 hitters stacked together at different stakes.
- $8 entry: 0.86%
- $44 entry: 1.08%
- $150 entry: 1.40%
- $2,120 entry: 3.00%
Even with deGrom and Sale on the slate, this was a clear “pay up for Coors” spot, considering that the Rockies were facing Diamondbacks righty Shelby Miller, who had a slate-high 2.71 HR/9 and slate-worst 1.88 WHIP over the past 12 months. The game was being played in 85-degree heat and had a Weather Rating of 100. At the low stakes especially, the 1-5 stack had reduced ownership, and it still wasn’t as popular as it probably should’ve been in the high-stakes GPPs. Sometimes, it’s possible that DFS players are too contrarian in search of leverage.
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Adding a Pitcher to a Stack
If you’re worried about chalkiness, the Stack Seeker shows that you can differentiate your lineup by adding a pitcher to your stack. You might not want to do that at Coors Field, but let’s return to the July 11 slate and take a look at the Cleveland Indians, who scored 19 runs. Here are the most popular Indians batters on the slate.
- 1. Francisco Lindor: 5.28%
- 2. Michael Brantley: 4.94%
- 3. Jose Ramirez: 4.14%
- 5. Yonder Alonso: 4.04%
And here are the ownership rates for those stacked batters at different stakes.
- $8 entry: 0.75%
- $44 entry: 0.77%
- $150 entry: 0.86%
- $2120 entry: 0.00%
Those rates are low, but not nearly as low as the ones we see when we add Indians pitcher Carlos Carrasco to the stack.
- $8 entry: 0.07%
- $44 entry: 0.09%
- $150 entry: 0.09%
- $2120 entry: 0.00%
Takeaways
The Stack Seeker is a great way to analyze the ownership of stacks, which is especially useful in a sport like MLB, where correlations are so critical to success.
As we’ve seen, it’s probable that even with chalky teams DFS players aren’t stacking enough, either because they’re trying too hard to be contrarian or aren’t aware of the full benefits of stacking. Because any given combination of 3-5 players is unlikely to be owned at a high rate, when there’s an exploitable spot (based on our Trends tool), such as a poor pitcher at Coors Field in hitter-friendly weather, people should look to leverage that opportunity to the fullest extent.
But if you are looking to be contrarian in a high-upside situation, consider stacking with a pitcher. Doing so dramatically increases your odds of having a unique lineup.
For more in-depth MLB analysis, check out The Action Network.
Pictured above: Charlie Blackmon & Carlos Gonzalez
Photo credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
