This is a weekly series that follows MLB trends created with our Trends tool. Although the trends in this series are made with specific slates in mind, they are designed to remain relevant throughout the season.
7/17: Splitsburg
Stephen Strasburg may be the most polarizing player in daily fantasy baseball. Ask around and I’m sure you’ll find everyone has an opinion regarding Stras’ home/away performance, how different types of weather tilt his performance, and even the most optimal times of day to roster him. Many of us have at least one Strasburg bad beat memory, but if you were to dig deep in your mind, past memories that your brain has long since warded off, you may also recall rostering Stras on one of his many double-digit strikeout performances. On Monday, I found the perfect time to explore Strasburg’s splits, as he was poised to face the Cincinnati Reds on the road (gasp), in an early game (shudder), and on a hot day at the ballpark (oh no).
With the help of our Trends tool, I’ll quickly address each of Strasburg’s splits mentioned above.
Home/Away
Over 100 starts, Strasburg has averaged 1.2 more fantasy points per start at home than he has on the road. However, Strasburg is actually more consistent on the road – 65 percent Consistency vs. 59 percent – with a massive +11.5 percent ownership differential when he is pitching at home. DFS players are wise to the existence of this split.
Time of Day
Strasburg has averaged an excellent +3.04 Plus/Minus on DraftKings in games that begin no earlier than 7:00 pm ET at 31.2 percent average ownership. In games that begin no later than 2:30 pm, his Plus/Minus drops to +0.18.
It should be noted, however, that A.) The second sample is much smaller, consisting of only 28 games, and B.) One of those games was a beatdown at Coors Field in which Strasburg logged -15.45 fantasy points. Removing Coors from the sample leads to a much better +1.85 Plus/Minus.
Temperature
Stras does appear to struggle in warmer weather. Over 23 games played in 80 to 90 degree weather, his Plus/Minus is -2.49.
Putting It All Together
There does seem to be a degree of truth to each of Stras’ perceived splits. However, it should be noted that in each case, the negative split consisted of a much smaller sample. I think we want to be careful about looking at too small a sample, especially when we know that, overall, Stras is a very talented pitcher. Also, in both away games and early games, Strasburg’s Plus/Minus was still positive despite representing the weaker end of the split.
Results
Even Vegas seems to be buying into Stras’ splits. On 6/23, the Reds were implied to score 3.5 runs against Strasburg in a game played at Nationals Park that started at 7:00 pm. On Monday, facing the same Reds lineup in Cincinnati at noon, the Reds were implied to score 4.1. In the end, though, Stras came through, striking out seven en route to a 6-1 win.
7/18/17: Home of the Brave(s)
In this series, I’ve previously written that one of the trends to watch throughout the season will be batter and pitcher performance at SunTrust Park, the new home of the Atlanta Braves. Since DraftKings will often adjust a player’s price based on matchup and park factors, early recognition of these trends will provide an edge.
Through 92 starts, pitchers have collectively achieved a -0.50 Plus/Minus at SunTrust, a figure that ranks 10th-worst at the time of this writing. This represents an early -0.70 Plus/Minus differential when comparing SunTrust to Turner Field, the former home of the Braves.
Results
At $6,200, John Lackey seemed like a reasonable option for those wanting to explore a fade-Kershaw-stack-Coors type of lineup on DraftKings. But in addition to my initial skepticism, there was one more factor in play here: the weather. Although the overall Plus/Minus for pitchers at Turner Field between 2014-2016 was a positive +0.20, that number dropped to -0.10 when the temperature exceeded 80 degrees over a relatively large sample. As we get further into July of 2017, we don’t yet have enough data on warm weather games held at SunTrust Park. But if the trend that we saw at Turner holds true at SunTrust, that was even worse news for Lackey.
Ultimately, Lackey’s performance was just okay. Implied to score 12 fantasy points, he scored 11.05, lasting five innings and registering a single strikeout. Still, this was probably better than I expected and the performance reinforces my original point: We still don’t have enough data to make any strong conclusions about SunTrust Park from a Plus/Minus perspective. Make sure you have trends set up to help monitor performance as more data becomes available.
7/19/17: Massive Pitch Counts
One of the primary reasons you sometimes hear people say it is safer to pay up for pitching is due to opportunity. While batters have only four or five chances to make a mark each night, starting pitchers will generally get somewhere around 90 to 100 pitches and five to seven innings. While even the best hitters can go 0-4 on any given night, the hope is that over these 90-100 pitches, a pitcher has more chances for his true talent to shine through.
Not all pitchers are created equally, however, and that’s why I’d like to call your attention to Kenta Maeda and Justin Verlander on Wednesday’s slate. Per the ownership projections in our Player Models, Maeda was projected to appear on 26-30 percent of lineups, while we had Verlander at 13-16 percent.
Maeda was a heavier favorite, and his K Prediction of seven bested Verlander’s by half a strikeout, but I saw one major difference between these two pitchers: their pitch counts. Over the past 15 days, Maeda’s pitch count was 86 while Verlander’s was 118 — over 30 pitches higher. This was no abnormality either. Looking at these pitchers’ pitch counts over the fantasy year, Maeda’s count of 84 fell well short of Verlander’s 108.
Maeda is a great pitcher, and he can certainly be efficient enough with 85 to 90 pitches. But if he’s going to be one of the most popular pitchers on the slate and you’re looking for a place to pivot, wouldn’t you bet on the guy who gets 20-plus more pitches each start?
As it turns out, Verlander’s recent pitch count has been a decent predictor of his future success. In 23 games where Verlander’s recent pitch count has fallen between 110 and 120, he has scored a +4.12 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 78 percent Consistency. Remember, when we run this trend, we’re not asking for Verlander’s performance during games in which he throws 110 or more pitches – that would be more descriptive than predictive – instead, we are asking, “How does Verlander perform when he has thrown 110 or more pitches in his most recent starts?”
Results
With 23.55 fantasy points and a +9.1 Plus/Minus, Verlander was the third-highest scoring pitcher on DraftKings. Maeda was not bad himself, scoring 15.65. But in the end, it did come down to pitch count: Maeda let up only a single earned run but was limited to 83 pitches, while Verlander used 107 pitches to strike out eight batters in seven innings.
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Thanks for following along with my three custom trends this week. As always, there’s plenty more left to be explored via the Labs Tools.
