The PGA TOUR stays in the Aloha State to wrap up the opening drive of the season with the Sony Open in Hawaii. The tournament is the first full-field event of 2024 and of the new season, and will look to build on the momentum of a great opening week at Kapalua, which saw Chris Kirk claim the first win of the new season.
This week, the PGA TOUR returns to a typical, four-round event and will have a normal cut at the midway point, with the top 65 and ties making the weekend. All four rounds will be played at Waialae Country Club just outside of Honolulu. The event has been held on this course since its modern-day debut back in 1965.
The course is a par 70 that is known as a shot-makers course that emphasizes accuracy and positioning as opposed to driving distance. It stands in stark contrast to last week’s wide-open fairways at Kapalua. Typically, shorter-hitting ball-strikers with excellent short games have success here year after year. Course history is definitely something to consider this week.
The field is loaded with up-and-coming talents like Vegas’s favorite Ludvig Aberg, Sahith Theegala, and Akshay Bhatia. Last week’s winner, Chris Kirk, will look to complete the sweep of the aloha swing, which only six golfers have achieved in the past. Si Woo Kim is back to defend his title from last year as one of seven previous winners in this week’s field. There’s also a large contingent of new names from the Korn Ferry Tour ready to make their 2024 debuts this week. There are also some big international names in the field, including Tyrell Hatton and Robert MacIntyre.
In this post each week, we’ll focus on players who are strong GPP options. That means they have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding this kind of high-leverage play is critical for GPP success. The picks here go against the grain to take advantage of players who may be overlooked and under-owned.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. This week, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $600K Pitch + Putt, which awards $200K to first place and is $20 per entry.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Ludvig Aberg $10,500
The very top of the salary structure features four players with salaries of $10,000 or higher, and there actually should be some great SimLeverage at the top, based on our ownership projections and Perfect%.
The top Perfect% in the entire field belongs to Aberg, who is in 10% more of the optimal lineups in our sims than any other player in the field. He has the highest ownership projection in the field at 22%, but since he is in so many optimal lineups, this looks like a place to eat the chalk and lock in the “free space” play. If you do, just look for other places to differentiate your lineup.
Aberg also matches eight Pro Trends, which ties him with Sahith Theegala for the highest number in the field.
Vegas likes the young Swede as well, giving him the best odds of winning and the best odds of finishing in the top 10. He shares those honors with Tyrell Hatton and Matthew Fitzpatrick, but those two cheaper options have much lower Perfect%.
Aberg didn’t look like he had his best game last week in Maui, finishing T47 out of 59 golfers. He quickly bounced back from a Saturday 77 with an impressive 63 (-10) on Sunday, though, so he may have just needed some time to knock the rust off.
Remember, he finished 2023 in incredible form with top 15s in seven straight worldwide tournaments, not even counting his impressive contributions at the Ryder Cup. That stretch also included wins at the Omega European Masters at the DP World Tour and The RSM Classic for his first PGA TOUR win.
After Sunday’s impressive finish, I’m ready to jump back on the Aberg train. Our projections clearly make him the top pay-up play of the week.
Russell Henley $9,600
Henley is also coming off a less-than-impressive start to 2024, but he brings the perfect skill set for this course, as demonstrated by his course history. He had his breakthrough win at this event back in 2013 and lost in a playoff just two years ago. He has made the cut in eight of his 11 appearances on this track with five top 25s.
Like with Aberg, let’s not overreact to one bad week and instead look at his longer-term form. Henley finished 2023 with 13 top-20 finishes in his last 16 tournaments and even outperformed salary-based expectations last week in Maui since he did fire four rounds under par.
Of the players in the $9,000-$10,000 range, Henley has the second-highest SimLeverage behind only the injury wild card, Will Zalatoris. Henley has the fourth-highest Perfect% in the entire field and the fourth-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections.
Getting him at the eighth-highest salary on the board actually seems like a bit of a bargain.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Cameron Davis $8,500
There are 10 players priced between $8,000 and $9,000, and Cameron Davis has the highest Perfect% of the group. He is projected for under 15% ownership and brings the highest SimLeverage in the group by a wide margin.
Davis was up and down at the Sentry but exceeded salary-based expectations and finished with a strong 65. He was bogey-free in that -8 finishing round and did most of his damage with a rough first round in which he dropped five shots to par in two disastrous holes.
In his five career appearances at Waialae, Davis has made the cut four times and finished in the top 10 in 2020. While he doesn’t fit the profile of a short hitter, he has been at his best at similar layouts.
Last year, Davis started slow but finished with three top 12s in the FedExCup Fall after three top 10s down the stretch into the FedExCup Playoffs.
Stephan Jaeger $8,100
Jaeger is the only other player in this price bracket with a positive SimLeverage. He has the lowest projected ownership of the group but the fourth-highest Perfect%. He also has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection in this price range, behind only Davis and Byeong Hun An.
At the end of 2023, Jaeger was finding a great groove, exceeding salary-based expectations in 10 of his last 13 tournaments. He made the cut in each of his last 17 events to end the year, with the streak dating all the way back to April. He only had a single top 10 in that span but finished in the top 30 in five of his last seven.
The 34-year-old from Munich has made the cut in three of his four career trips to this event and finished T28 on this track a year ago. If his putter ever gets hot, he possesses the tee-to-green game to contend.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
J.J. Spaun $7,600
Like Jaeger, Spaun will be making his first start of 2024. He finished 2023 on a great roll by exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last 10 tournaments. He finished in the top 15 at The RSM Classic, the ZOZO Championship, and the Fortinet Championship in the FedExCup Fall, and he’ll look to carry that momentum with him to Hawaii.
Spaun has the highest Perfect% of all players under $8,000 and the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all the players in this price bracket as well. With his ownership percentage under 9%, Spaun has an excellent SimLeverage mark along with the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest Pts/Sal in this price bracket.
Spaun missed the cut in three straight trips to this event, but last year, he seemed to figure out the course on his way to a T12.
If he had just putted a little better, he would have been right in contention.
Erik Van Rooyen $7,200
Van Rooyen made a loud statement to open 2024, and it wasn’t just his viral fashion choices. He had a stronger showing last week at Kapalua than many of the golfers priced much higher than him. He finished T22 and could have finished much better if it wasn’t for an opening round 72, which he chased with 65-69-65 to wrap up the week.
The South African won his final event in 2023 at the World Wide Technology Championship and had six other top-25 finishes on the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour from September through November.
Van Rooyen finished T20 at this event two years ago, but he has the potential for a much better finish if he can keep rolling.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Kyoung-Hoon Lee $6,900
At just under $7,000, K.H. Lee has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all players in that price range. He has the highest Perfect% and the second-most Pts/Sal in the price bracket and under a 2% ownership projection.
Lee finished above salary-based expectations in three of his last four events in 2023, including a top 10 at the Shriners Children’s Open. His game fits certain courses very well, as he has proven by winning the AT&T Byron Nelson in back-to-back years.
Waialae is a good fit as well since he made the cut in each of the last three years with two top 30s.
Mattieu Pavon $6,700
Mattieu Pavon may be a new name to fans of the PGA TOUR, but the 31-year-old Frenchman made a big splash last fall on the DP World Tour. He finished in the top 15 in five of his last six events, including an impressive fifth-place finish at the DP World Tour Championship in mid-November. Before that, he held off Jon Rahm to win the Open de Espana by four shots for his first European title.
Pavon has officially played three PGA TOUR events in his career, missing the cut at the U.S. Open (despite a hole-in-one), the Genesis Scottish Open, and the Barracuda Championship. All of that was before his strong fall run, though, so taking a flier on him at this salary makes sense this week.
He has the highest SimLeverage and Pts/Sal of all players under $7,000 and projected ownership under 1%.
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