Sony Open PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values

The PGA TOUR moves to Honolulu as we stay in Hawaii for one more week to play the 2023 Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. Waialae is a 7,044-yard par 70 that was built in 1927 and has annually featured a TOUR event since 1965. The Sony Open is the first full-field event of the calendar year.

The 2023 Sony Open field is comprised of 144 golfers. Some notable names in the field include Tom Kim, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Cam Davis, Adam Scott and Webb Simpson.

The Sony Open is typically a low-scoring affair, and we should see plenty of birdies. The wind is about all the course has in terms of defense, so it may prove wise to keep an eye on the forecast this week.

For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Don’t forget about the other tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, such as the Trends tool and PGA Correlation Dashboard.

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Green sizes are much smaller at Waialae than we saw last week at Kapalua. Golfers will also be hitting greens in regulation at a far lower clip, therefore requiring iron play to be even sharper in order to go low.

High-end target: Tom Kim– $10,500 (1st SG: APP)
Mid-range target: Tom Hoge – $9,900 (2nd SG: APP)
Value target: Ben Griffin – $7,300 (8th SG: APP)

Good Drives Gained

Not only are the greens much smaller at Waialae than we saw at Kapalua, but the fairways are also a lot smaller. Last week, golfers were spraying errant drives with little consequence; that won’t be the case this week. While missing the fairway might not be incredibly penal, those who split the middle on the narrow fairways will be rewarded with flat lies and straightforward approach shots.

High-end target: Corey Conners – $9,600 (7th Good Drives Gained)
Mid-range target: Aaron Rai – $7,400 (2nd Good Drives Gained)
Value target: Kevin Yu – $6,700 (7th Good Drives Gained)

Strokes Gained: Short Game

With small fairways and greens, it is to be expected that golfers will have to scramble around the green at one point or another. Strokes Gained: Short Game encompasses both chipping around the green and putting to account for tough par putts while scrambling. Historically, players with great hands and short games have had success here.

High-end target: Taylor Montgomery – $9,000 (1st SG: Short Game)
Mid-range target: Andrew Putnam – $8,000 (2nd SG: Short Game)
Value target: Harry Hall – $6,200 (8th SG: Short Game)

Birdie or Better Gained

While Waialae presents its fair share of challenges, the winning score will likely be somewhere in the -20 to -27 range; therefore, birdies are a must. In an event where par isn’t good enough on most holes, golfers who can get hot and go low need to be targeted this week.

High-end target: Tom Kim – $10,500 (1st in Birdies or Better Gained)
Mid-range target: Cameron Davis– $8,500 (4thin Birdies or Better Gained)
Value target: Greyson Sigg – $7,300 (11th in Birdies or Better Gained)

Course History

Course history seems to be particularly important at Waialae, as 16 of the past 17 winners have played the course previously before hoisting the trophy. It is also common to see similar players pop up on the leaderboard year after year in Honolulu, so a bit of course history should be factored in.

High-end target: Corey Conners – $9,600 (2nd SG: Total at Waialae)
Mid-range target: Matt Kuchar – $7,900 (1st SG: Total at Waialae)
Value target: Chez Reavie – $7,000 (7th SG: Total at Waialae)

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