I recently wrote about quarterback correlations, specifically how certain statistics correlate with our Plus/Minus metric, which is just actual points minus expected points. The goal was to find which stats were priced into QB salaries on DraftKings and which were not. Obviously, if we can find ones that aren’t, we can potentially exploit that and find hidden value.
After I posted the article, I realized that the data I gave was probably only half of what is really needed to accurately judge the most important stats for QBs in DFS. So, this article is going to be mostly updating this idea with a graph that I think shows the best of both worlds – the correlation between fantasy points and the correlation with Plus/Minus.
Here it is:
The top-right quadrant is the one that will lead to the most DFS value – those are statistics that are both valuable to QBs in terms of scoring fantasy points, but also not fully priced in QB salaries. As you can see, there aren’t many stats in that quadrant – DK obviously does a pretty good job with their algorithm in pricing players.
In the previous article, I remarked about how Interceptions/G was highly correlated with Plus/Minus and how that shows that it’s a valuable stat because it isn’t priced in. However, what I missed was that the statistic isn’t incredibly valuable in the first place. It isn’t priced into QB salary, but it doesn’t really matter as it’s not a predictive stat anyway.
I think perhaps the most valuable statistic shown here is Passing Yards/G – it’s one that is highly correlated with fantasy scoring, but also isn’t priced into QB salaries as much as touchdowns are. I did mention this in my previous article and I think this graph bolsters that idea. It’s correct to try to get touchdowns into your lineups, especially in GPPs, but don’t forget to think about passing yards. Getting a QB that can do both – rack up a ton of yardage and throw for multiple touchdowns – is the recipe for DFS success.
I’ll definitely do this for the other positions as well, so be on the lookout for those articles!
