The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a four-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
With the highest implied total on the slate (3.4), St. Louis stands out, but there are also four teams tightly clustered between 3.0 and 3.2. Multiple expensive skaters are also on the road.
Center
- Steven Stamkos @ Boston: DraftKings – $7,800, FanDuel – $8,600
- Mark Scheifele @ Colorado: DraftKings – $7,000, FanDuel – $7,900
- Patrice Bergeron vs. Tampa Bay: DraftKings – $6,900, FanDuel – $7,200
- Brayden Schenn vs. Anaheim: DraftKings – $6,600, FanDuel – $7,300
Winger
- Nikita Kucherov @ Boston: DraftKings – $8,000, FanDuel – $8,700
- Vladimir Tarasenko vs. Anaheim: DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $8,500
- Blake Wheeler @ Colorado: DraftKings – $7,000, FanDuel – $7,600
Defense
- Erik Karlsson @ Montreal: DraftKings – $6,700, FanDuel – $6,700
- Alex Pietrangelo vs. Anaheim: DraftKings – $6,200, FanDuel – $5,900
- Victor Hedman @ Boston: DraftKings – $5,900, FanDuel – $6,000
The Blues will likely be popular, but they are also expensive on both platforms. The top four-man stack — in this case the St. Louis first power play unit (PP1) — trails only Tampa Bay’s PP1 in combined salary on both sites. However, even though the price is high and they could see elevated ownership, the payoff in rostering them could be huge: Of today’s options, the Blues have scored the most goals per game over the past month, own the second-highest Corsi-For, and host a Ducks team that has (far and away) the highest Corsi-Against on the slate over that same time period.
Have I mentioned before that Stamkos and Kucherov offer an absurd 0.76 correlation coefficient in our Models? They do. And correlating your lineups through stacking is almost always important in DFS hockey, especially on a short slate. Tampa Bay is on the road against a Boston team featuring one of the best shut-down centermen in the league. The Bruins have the lowest Corsi-Against this season of any team on the slate, and even though the Lightning own the second-highest goal expectation today, their ceiling could be lower than normal.
Speaking of Bergeron: He’s historically performed better offensively on the road, which could be due to his defensive responsibilities when his team has last change at home. Keep in mind, Bergeron does lead the center position today in shots+blocks over the past month and he trails only Kucherov in DraftKings Pro Trends.
Paying up for defensemen like Karlsson makes a lot of sense, and recency bias may have the public off of him since he is on the road and has zero points over his last six games. His time on ice (TOI) is solid, registering over 25 minutes per night over that same period, so sooner or later he should progress back to his productive offensive mean. Over the past five seasons, no defenseman has more points per game than Karlsson with 0.90. Taking an ownership discount on an elite player playing below expectation can be wise in guaranteed prize pools.
Values
Erik Johnson (DraftKings – $4,600, FanDuel – $4,400): Johnson ranks in the 95th percentile of shots+blocks over the past month and has the fifth-highest mark of any player in the slate. He’s clearly underpriced relative to his peripheral stats and role on the second power play unit.
Charles Hudon (DraftKings – $3,600, FanDuel – $3,600): Of forwards priced below $4,000 on both DraftKings & FanDuel, Hudon leads the slate with his 89th percentile shots+blocks. His 82nd percentile shot attempts trails only Zack Smith (90th) in that same price range.
One-Timers
Mike Hoffman (DraftKings – $6,200, FanDuel – $7,000): The slate seemingly lacks goal-scoring upside, but Hoffman has the peripheral stats (93rd percentile in shots) and upside (95th percentile in points) to break things wide open. He’s hard to trust in cash games as the Senators boast the second-lowest implied total on the slate, but in tournaments he’s certainly worth a flyer against a Montreal team with the second-highest Corsi-Allowed on the slate over the past month.
Jaden Schwartz (DraftKings – $6,500, FanDuel – $7,000): Schwartzy’s 32nd percentile shots+blocks definitely doesn’t inspire confidence in cash games, but he correlates favorably to Tarasenko and Schenn as one of the league’s top playmakers in the 99th percentile in assists over the past month.
Notable Stacks
Predictably, one of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the first power play unit of the St. Louis Blues.
There is always merit to fading the highest-owned stack from a game theory perspective, but the Blues easily have the top raw projection on the slate. It’s a smash spot and St. Louis unsurprisingly leads all teams today in Corsi-For expectation and will take on an Anaheim squad that has surrendered the third-most power play opportunities this year.
With the highest matchup rating and goal expectation on the slate, Winnipeg rates as one of our highest four-man stacks on FanDuel.
Despite ranking in the 87th percentile in shots over the past month, Connor is still underpriced at $4,400 on FanDuel with a 95 percent Bargain Rating. Wheeler and Scheifele carry a ton of upside in the 99th percentile in points, but their floors are low for cash games (relative to their salaries) with 84th and 50th percentile marks in shots+blocks. Colorado owns the fifth-worst penalty kill percentage and Winnipeg has the fourth-best power play this year. This should set up well for Byfuglien as a reasonable correlation play. His price has dropped $1,400 over the past month, and he ranks in the 85th percentile in power play shots.
Goalies
Wins are weighted significantly in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, which could be why ownership tends to mirror Vegas moneylines.
- St. Louis -218 vs. Anaheim
- Montreal -153 vs. Ottawa
- Winnipeg -124 @ Colorado
If you’re looking to drill deeper into favorable possibilities, it could be wise to check out our new save prediction metric. It takes into account a multitude of things, such as the opposing team’s average shots; the team’s average shots allowed; and the player’s goals against average. Here are today’s top options that have been confirmed as starters or are expected to start.
- John Gibson, Anaheim @ St. Louis (DraftKings – $7,000, FanDuel – $8,300): 35.52 saves
- Tuukka Rask, Boston vs. Tampa Bay (DraftKings – $7,300, FanDuel – $7,700): 28.85 saves
- Semyon Varlamov, Colorado vs. Winnipeg (DraftKings – $7,100, FanDuel – $7,700): 27.36 saves
It’s a tough slate for goaltender, as none of the large favorites also garner a top save prediction. Gibson, Rask, and Varlamov could all offer decent leverage if one of the top-projected offenses on the slate goes cold. Goalies tend to be low-owned as road underdogs, but it’s tough to see Gibson as anything more than a contrarian tournament option even with a low $7,000 price tag on DraftKings.
At the time of this writing, the Tampa Bay goaltender has not been announced, but the Lightning own the fourth-highest Corsi-Against on the slate over the past month and rank in the 74th percentile overall, so whoever is between the pipes could be in a decent spot to accrue some saves as a slight dog.
Jake Allen will start for the Blues, and although Pittsburgh has allowed the sixth-fewest shots on goal this year Anaheim has scored the fifth fewest. Paying up for the high likelihood of a win could be the path of least resistance, but the position is one where it historically makes sense to pay down.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
