It’s getting close to desperation time for the Los Angeles Rams. Seven weeks into the 2024 season, and the twice-removed Super Bowl Champions are 2-4 and desperately trying to stay in the NFC playoff race. Standing in their way is a Thursday Night Football clash against the mighty Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota has exceeded its wildest expectations, getting out to a 5-1 start when many thought the Vikings wouldn’t get to five wins the entire season. A win against the Rams as -3 road favorites would put them squarely in the driver’s seat in the NFC North while all but squashing LA’s playoff aspirations.
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Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Vikings vs. Rams
Colby Parkinson More Than 3.5 Receptions and 30.5 Receiving Yards
Sadly, the return of Cooper Kupp did nothing to bolster the Rams’ chances. LA remains home underdogs while hosting the Vikings on a short week. Many will be zeroed in on Kupp’s player projections, but there’s another Rams pass catcher deserving of that attention.
With Kupp and Puka Nacua on the shelf, Colby Parkinson cemented himself as a big and reliable target for Matthew Stafford. Six games into the season, the Rams tight end has already matched his career high in targets, needing just four receptions and 125 yards to reach those personal benchmarks. Setting a new best in receiving yards against the Vikings is too big of an ask, but Parkinson should have no problem exceeding his receptions and receiving yard totals on Thursday Night Football.
Although he’s been on a stratospheric rise, Parkinson was a priority in the passing game, even with Kupp and Nacua in the lineup. The former fourth-round pick has seen five or more targets in four of six outings. More importantly, he’s made the most of those looks. Parkinson has gone north of 4 receptions in three games this season, eclipsing 32 receiving yards in all but two games.
The Vikings bottled up Sam LaPorta last week, but they’ve been otherwise ineffective at containing opposing tight ends. Tyler Conklin went off for 55 yards on six catches in Week 5, with Tucker Kraft putting up 53 yards on six grabs the week prior. That sets the bar for what to expect from Parkinson, which is more than 3.5 receptions and 30.5 receiving yards.
Jordan Addison Less Than 43.5 Receiving Yards
It’s been an up-and-down year for Jordan Addison. The Vikings receiver has been featured regularly in the passing game, but his production has varied wildly from week to week. Unfortunately, his current trajectory is taking him on a downslope against the Rams.
Addison has gone north of 66 yards twice this season, falling below 36 yards in his other two appearances. But there are a few factors supporting that he ends up on the low end of that spectrum at SoFi Stadium. The USC product hasn’t recorded more than three receptions in any game this season. Moreover, he’s been targeted more than four times just once. As usual, Justin Jefferson remains the primo option in the Vikings’ passing attack, with Jalen Nailor taking on a more prominent role in recent weeks.
We also have to give some credit to the Rams defense. Los Angeles hasn’t allowed more than 197 passing yards in three straight contests, dropping its per-game average down to 211.8. Over that stretch, Jayden Reed is the only wide receiver to surpass 36 receiving yards, with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Dontayvion Wicks all being held to 22 or fewer.
Wide receivers are having a hard time gaining any traction in the Rams’ secondary, a trend that inhibits Addison’s ceiling on Thursday Night Football. His ineffective start to the season continues at least one more game, with Addison coming in below 43.5 receiving yards.
Justin Jefferson More Than 6.5 Receptions
This pick may seem a little counterintuitive compared to Addison’s play, but there are a couple of different considerations that need to be made. Justin Jefferson remains the de facto pass catcher on offense, and his workload should allow him to surpass 6.5 receptions against the Rams.
Yes, Los Angeles’ pass defense is better than it has been in years, but the secondary isn’t immune to big plays. The Rams have been burned by X receivers in the past. Jauan Jennings went off for 175 yards and 11 catches against the Rams back in Week 3. Similarly, Marvin Harrison Jr. had himself a day the week before, nabbing four receptions for 130 yards. Jefferson’s profile is similar to both of those players, implying that he will have a more productive day than his teammates.
We also have to assign appropriate weight to Jefferson’s usage metrics. The former All-Pro has at least eight targets in four straight games, recording at least six catches each time out. Not surprisingly, that coincides with an increase in snap count. Jefferson has played at least 90.0% of the offensive snaps in all four of those contests. In doing so, he’s endeared himself to his new quarterback and asserted himself as the go-to passing option in every possible instance.
Los Angeles is prone to big plays to imposing wide receivers, suiting Jefferson’s abilities to a tee. He should remain the first passing option on most plays, propelling him to more than 6.5 receptions against the Rams.
