The NFL couldn’t have scripted a better story if they tried. The two best teams in the NFC square off on Sunday Night Football for a division title and the first seed in the NFC playoff bracket. The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings have been on epic conquests this year. Both teams are sporting identical 14-2 records, meaning the fate of the NFC North will be decided in the last game of the regular season. While both teams are guaranteed a playoff spot, the consolation prize for the loser is the fifth seed, a road playoff game, and the long route to Super Bowl. Consequently, both teams will be at their best in what’s sure to be the most entertaining contest of the week.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Vikings vs. Lions
Jared Goff More 24.5 Passing Completions
All of the fanfare has been directed Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen’s way. But let’s take one last opportunity to appreciate Jared Goff for the MVP candidate he is. The Lions’ quarterback leads his team into a pivotal must-win clash versus a division rival, and we expect him to deliver another game-changing performance.
Goff has already set several new benchmarks this season, the most impressive of which is his completion percentage. The three-time Pro Bowler is completing 71.7% of his passes, nearly 4.0% higher than his previous career-best. On a more absolute basis, Goff has at least 26 completions in three of his past four for an average of 29.8 per game. Without David Montgomery, that benchmark will remain on the top end of the spectrum.
Goff’s outlook is propped up by Minnesota’s ineffective pass defense. The Vikings allow the second-most completions in the NFL, giving up 24.3 per game. Not surprisingly, that number also jumps on the road. Minnesota allows 23.3 completions per game in their friendly confines, inflating to 25.3 as the visitors.
Dan Campbell and the Lions have a relentless attack. We’ve seen Campbell unleash his offense even after games get out of reach, and that bodes well for Goff’s passing-completions total. We expect the Lions’ field general to be at his best, surpassing 24.5 completions against the Vikings.
Jahmyr Gibbs More 124.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Assuredly, David Montgomery’s absence has had an impact on the Lions offense. His unapologetic running style has been missed, but his teammates are doing their best to pick up the slack. While Goff has done more in the passing game, Jahmyr Gibbs has been a more imposing figure out of the backfield. He projects as an ideal candidate to surpass his rushing + receiving-yard total in Week 18.
Gibbs has been an absolute menace as the lead back on offense. The second-year pro has shined over the past couple of weeks, totaling 226 rushing yards on 41 carries on offense, adding eight receptions and 91 yards via the aerial assault. In total, that equates to an average of 158.5 rushing + receiving yards per game, with no fewer than 154 yards in either contest. Those efforts dwarf his total against the Vikings.
Granted, Minnesota’s defense stacks up well against the run, they won’t be able to stymie Gibbs completely. They gave up 104 rushing yards last week to the Green Bay Packers, making it four out of five games in which opponents have crossed the century mark. That downward trajectory carries them into a tough road matchup against a running back that is thriving.
Gibbs has stepped up in Montgomery’s absence, and we don’t expect him to take his foot off the pedal against the Vikings. He’s carrying the ball more, correlating with an increase in productivity and efficiency. Combined with his regular usage in the passing game, we project Gibbs will surpass his rushing + receiving-yard total at home.
Aaron Jones Less 62.5 Rushing Yards
Minnesota is doing things on offense that few people expected at the outset of the season. They’ve put together a top-10 total and scoring offense while extracting maximum value from some unsuspecting sources. While Aaron Jones was a focal point earlier in the season, he’s taken a backseat as the season progresses. His ceiling is limited once more in Week 18.
Jones has eclipsed the 1,000-yard plateau for the fourth time in his career; however, his recent efforts have been less dominant than his early-season contributions. Jones hasn’t eclipsed 86 rushing yards since Week 12, and he’s averaging just 59.0 per game across the five-game span. The more concerning metric is his decreasing usage. The former Pro Bowler has 13 or fewer rushing attempts in three of his previous five, for 13.2 carries per game.
Detroit has an equally unforgiving approach on defense. The Lions give up the third-fewest rushing yards per game, holding opponents to an average of 97.0 yards per game. Moreover, the last two lead running backs they’ve faced have combined for a jaw-dropping 54 yards. That’s a shockingly resolute commitment to defending the run.
Jones’ diminished workload and limited effectiveness hamper his outlook against the Lions. Our projections reveal an edge in backing him to fall below 62.5 rushing yards, a proposition that’s supported by our analysis.
