The Thanksgiving Day extravaganza is finally here! As always, we have a delightful three-game slate to look forward to on Thursday. First, the NFC-leading Detroit Lions look to strengthen their grip on the conference with an intra-divisional showdown versus the Chicago Bears. Then, the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants renew acquaintances in a game that means more to the NFL Draft than the playoff race. Finally, in the most exciting game of the day, the Miami Dolphins travel to the hallowed grounds of Lambeau Field for a clash versus the Green Bay Packers. Both teams desperately need a win as they look to stay alive in their respective playoff races.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1,500 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Bears vs. Lions, Giants vs. Cowboys, & Dolphins vs. Packers
Jameson Williams More 3.5 Receptions
The Detroit Lions have taken an unforgiving approach on offense this season. Even with comfortable leads and games out of reach, Detroit has kept its foot on the pedal. We’re expecting as much when they take on the Chicago Bears on Thursday.
They might not average the most yards per game, but the Lions’ other supporting metrics validate that their passing attack is the best in the league. Detroit averages more yards per pass attempt than any other team, with an NFL-best 73% completion percentage. Amon-Ra St. Brown commands the lion’s share of adoration and coverage, but it’s time to start paying attention to Jameson Williams.
The Lions wide receiver has finally found his rhythm in his third professional season. Williams has already established career-best marks across the board, setting new benchmarks in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Moreover, his best work has come in recent weeks. Williams has tallied 12 receptions over his last three games, recording at least three each time out. Further, his 18 receptions over that stretch represent an improved 18.2% target share relative to his season-long standing of 15.0%.
We will stop short of calling Williams a focal point on offense, but it’s clear that he’s becoming a more prominent part of the Lions offense. We’re anticipating another strong showing from him in Thursday’s matinee, with Williams surpassing 3.5 receptions against the Bears.
D’Andre Swift Less 62.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards
Detroit wouldn’t be tied with the best record in football without its dynamic offense. Still, it’s worth acknowledging the impact their defense has made this season. The Lions have emerged as a top defensive threat, improving their year-over-year benchmarks in most defensive categories. They can rely on that defensive prowess to handcuff D’Andre Swift and the Bears offense on Thursday.
In his first season in Chicago, Swift’s production has taken a hit. The former second-round pick is averaging a career-worst 4.0 yards per rushing attempt despite a slight uptick in his usage metrics. Further, he’s averaging the second-fewest receptions per game of his career, with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet all taking priority in the passing game. On an absolute basis, Swift has fallen below 59 rushing yards in three of his past four while totaling 13 or fewer receiving yards in two of three. Those metrics don’t bode well for him against a stout Lions’ defensive front.
Detroit is coming off another solid defensive performance. Last week against the Indianapolis Colts, the Lions held Jonathan Taylor to just 35 rushing yards on 11 attempts. That was the third straight game in which opposing running backs were held to less than 47 rushing yards, setting the bar for what to expect from Swift on Thanksgiving.
Clearly, D’Andre Swift is having a hard time building rapport with Caleb Williams. The Bears’ rookie quarterback has prioritized several other receivers in the passing game, a trend that’s unlikely to change in Week 13. Combined with his limited productivity in the ground game and the Lions’ ferocious run defense, we project Swift will fall short of 62.5 rushing + receiving yards in Thursday’s opener.
Jalen Tolbert Less 24.5 Receiving Yards
The Dallas Cowboys have lowered the bar in 2024, and Jalen Tolbert has been part of the problem in recent weeks. Granted, the downturn in his productivity ties into Dak Prescott‘s absence. Still, it’s clear that Cooper Rush is looking in other directions, limiting Tolbert’s ceiling again versus the Giants.
Rush and Tolbert are clearly on different wavelengths. In three full games with Rush under center, Tolbert has only been targeted 13 times, seeing no more than five passes thrown his way in any contest. More concerningly, he’s only come up with seven receptions, representing an underwhelming 53.8% catch rate. If we include Week 6’s contest in which Prescott left, Tolbert has been held to three receptions or fewer in four straight games, failing to eclipse 22 receiving yards in any of those contests.
As bad as the Giants have been this season, they’ve stacked up surprisingly well against the pass. New York allows the seventh-fewest passing yards per game, holding opponents to just 194.2. Venues haven’t played a factor in their effectiveness, with the Giants’ home average coming in at 195.0 with their road average coming in slightly below that at 193.2.
We’re anticipating a similar result against a Cowboys passing attack that has failed to generate any meaningful gains with Rush under center. Tolbert’s decline will persist another week, with the Cowboys receiver coming up short of 24.5 receiving yards.
Devin Singletary Less 18.5 Rushing Yards
The Daniel Jones era has mercifully come to an end, leaving the Giants offense in a state of transition over the final third of the season. However, we started to see a changing of the guard before the season even started. This past offseason, New York decided to move on from Saquon Barkley, and the Giants’ ground game has suffered ever since. Devin Singletary started the season as the lead back but has since been usurped by Tyrone Tracy on the depth chart. Singletary’s outlook remains guarded against the Cowboys.
A two-game absence at the start of October all but erased Singletary’s role in the Giants offense. The 27-year-old has fallen below 18 rushing yards in three of the five games since, failing to exceed eight carries in any of those five contests. Predictably, that limited usage correlates with fewer offensive snaps. After playing at least 44 snaps and 68.0% of the offensive plays through the first four games, Singletary has fallen below 21 snaps and 36.0% of the snaps in four of the past five.
Clearly, the Giants are prioritizing Tracy in their offensive plans moving forward. Singletary’s rushing yards total against the Cowboys reflects that. Even with a total in the high teens, we expect the Giants running back to come up short.
Jaylen Waddle More 3.5 Receptions
The Miami Dolphins passing attack has suffered this year. Tua Tagovailoa‘s absence and persistent injury concerns may have been a factor early on, but the team has shown signs of getting back on track with their more recent performances. That upward trajectory correlates with improved play from Jaylen Waddle, a trend we expect to continue on Thursday night.
Waddle is coming off his best game of the season, but his performance was expected. He’s seen an increase in his target share lately, and with Tyreek Hill failing to recapture his All-Pro form, Tagovaila had to incoporate other pass-catchers into progressions. Waddle has picked up some of that slack, totaling 18 targets, 12 receptions, and 181 receiving yards over his last three games. We’re anticipating another robust workload against the Packers.
Hill continues to deal with a wrist injury, which has clearly limited his effectiveness. Further, a missed practice partway through the week to attend to a personal matter will also impact his preparedness on a short week.
While Green Bay has prevented opponents from gaining passing yards in big chunks, they’ve been less successful at defending the pass. Opponents are averaging a 65.2% completion percentage and 20.3 completions per game, ranking the Packers 16th and 12th, respectively. Practically, that’s resulted in five different pass-catchers surpassing four receptions over their last two games.
Miami’s offensive attack is dependent on its passing game, and we expect that to remain constant in Week 13. Hill’s productivity has taken a hit, but Waddle has picked up the slack. He should have no problem maintaining his workload and eclipsing 3.5 receptions on Thursday night.
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