When NFL schedule-makers came up with the 2024 offerings, they definitely envisioned the New York Jets being more competitive than they are. Yet, entering Thursday Night Football in Week 8, the Jets are a lowly 2-6 and relegated to the AFC East basement. For some reason though, New York enters tonight’s tilt versus the Houston Texans as -2.5 chalk on a short week. Home field advantage may be a factor in their betting position, but the Jets could face an uphill battle against a Texans side that has won six of their eight games to start the season. Even without Stefon Diggs, Houston can turn to several other playmakers to maintain its position atop the AFC South.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Texans vs. Jets
Xavier Hutchinson More 1.5 Receptions & 19.5 Receiving Yards
One player who stands to see the most substantive increase in workload is Xavier Hutchinson. The Texans’ second-year wide receiver had a tepid start to his NFL career, but he’s taken on a more robust role over the past few weeks. With Diggs sidelined, Thursday’s AFC showdown against the Jets could be Hutchinson’s coming out party.
Houston drafted Hutchinson in the sixth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. The Iowa State product managed just eight receptions on 19 targets in his rookie campaign but is well on his way to surpassing those modest totals this season. Through the first four weeks, Hutchinson was targetted three times, hauling in one of those passes for just three yards. Since then, C.J. Stroud has thrown his way seven times, with Hutchinson pulling down four passes for 61 yards. That increased workload is foreshadowing what’s to come for the 6’3″ pass-catcher.
Arguably, the more appealing aspect of Hutchinson’s profile is his vertical stretch, which we were starting to shine even while he playing in Diggs’ shadow. Hutchinson has 19-yard catches in two of his last four outings and is averaging an impressive 12.4 yards per reception on the season. Combined with Stroud’s increased volume in throwing the ball downfield, we should see Hutchinson evolve into the deep threat the Texans need him to be.
While the Jets passing defense remains one of the best in the league, we have seen a slight deterioration of their metrics over the last three weeks. New York is allowing more yards per game, a higher completion percentage, and more yards per pass attempt.
Hutchinson will be asked to do more for the Texans, and we expect him to respond appropriately. More targets and deep looks should help him exceed his receptions and passing yard totals on Thursday Night Football.
Davante Adams More 4.5 Receptions
We knew it wouldn’t take long for Davante Adams to re-establish his connection with Aaron Rodgers. The three-time All-Pro busted out of the gates with the Jets, and we should see Adams take off in Week 9.
Days after landing in New York, Adams was ready to make an impression with his new team. He was targeted nine times in Week 7, following that up with another six-target game last time out. A hamstring may have limited his effectiveness, but Adams was closer to game speed against the New England Patriots. Presumably fully healthy, we should see an uptick in Adams’ productivity that should help him surpass 4.5 receptions against the Texans.
So far this season, the newly-minted Jets receiver has been operating below expected. His 46.7% catch rate with the Jets is 12.8% off last year’s benchmark of 59.5% and further off his career average of 63.7%. There’s an even more stark comparison if we zero in on his time with Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. In eight seasons in Green Bay, Adams had a 66.7% catch rate while averaging 5.8 receptions per game. Further, his 3.5 receptions per game with the Jets would be the lowest total of his career since he averaged 2.4 in his rookie campaign.
Adams is a natural progression candidate. He’s deviated off course and we should see a notable increase in his underlying metrics. Rodgers has had a clear preference for getting Adams the ball throughout his career. As we’ve seen in their two games together, that remains a priority heading into tonight’s clash versus the Texans. Adams is poised to exceed 4.5 receptions.
Breece Hall Less 4.5 Receptions
No player has benefitted from the Jets’ coaching more than Breece Hall. The former second-round pick was languishing in Robert Saleh’s offense; however, we’ve seen a sharp rise in his usage and rushing metrics since Jeff Ulbrich took over. Hall’s most notable work has come in the ground game, and we expect that to be the case again in Week 9.
Through his first five starts of the season, Hall was averaging 41.4 yards per carry on 13.0 rushing attempts per game. Over his last three, the Iowa State product is up to 77.0 and 15.3, respectively. While Hall remains a check-down option when needed, he’s being prioritized less frequently in the passing game.
Look to last week’s pass-catching performance as a sign of what’s to come for the Jets running back. Hall had just three passes thrown his way, snagging one reception for nine yards. That drops his receptions per game to 4.1 on the season, a benchmark that appears out of reach on Thursday Night Football.
Over the past six games, Hall has recorded more than 4.5 receptions just once. With Adams, Garrett Wilson, and Tyler Conklin available, we expect Hall to be an afterthought in the passing game against the Texans. While he remains a top-tier rusher, expect Hall to fall below 4.5 receptions against a mighty Houston defense.
