The latest chapter of The Battle of Texas gets underway on Monday night, with the devastated Dallas Cowboys hosting the up-and-coming Houston Texans. Dallas has dealt with its fair share of adversity this season, somehow responding worse at each turn. The Texans suddenly find themselves in a heated division race, trying to maintain their lead in the AFC South. The betting odds are in their favor, which should result in a familiar effort from the Cowboys.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1,500 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Texans vs. Cowboys
Cooper Rush More 18.5 Completions and 31.5 Passing Attempts
The Cowboys’ reliance on their passing game is a multi-factorial equation. They are constantly playing from behind, necessitating more yards in bigger chunks to close the gap. Moreover, they don’t possess the same horsepower out of their backfield, forcing them to ask more from their quarterbacks and wide receivers. We’re predicting that will be the case once again on Monday Night Football, with Cooper Rush exceeding his completion and passing attempt totals.
Dallas throws the ball more than any other team in the league. Their 65.8% passing play percentage is just 0.05 percentage points lower than the Cleveland Browns, while their 39.4 pass attempts per game are easily the most. That’s been Cooper Rush’s cross to bear since Dak Prescott went down with a season-ending ankle injury. Rush’s first two efforts have been ineffective, but the seven-year pro is primed for a bounce-back effort against the Texans.
While he’s played mop-up duty at various points this season, the bulk of Rush’s work has come over the past two weeks. Over that modest stretch, he’s completed just 26 of 48 passes for a lackluster 54.2% completion rate; however, he’s proven to be more effective than that throughout his time in the NFL. A career 59.7% passer, Rush has a superior 60.9% completion rate over the past three seasons. That difference implies that he’s a natural progression candidate over the tail end of 2024, as he works his way back up toward career norms.
That ascent starts with tonight’s battle against the Texans. Over the past few seasons, Houston’s pass defense has been one of the worst in the league. While they’ve taken steps forward this season, cracks are starting to emerge in their underlying metrics. They gave up 240 passing yards at home last week and have allowed two of their past four opponents to complete at least 68.8% of their passes.
With Rush having free rein to distribute the ball, we’re expecting him to poke holes in the Texans’ defense and eclipse 18.5 completions and 31.5 pass attempts.
C.J. Stroud Less 20.5 Completions
While most of the credit is typically showered on the quarterback, it’s time to give Joe Mixon the laudation he deserves for transforming the Texans’ offense. Mixon has cemented his position as one of the top running backs in the league, taking the pressure off C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ passing game. Anticipated to play with the lead from the outset, Houston will continue to rely on Mixon to dictate tempo and clock management, lowering Stroud’s ceiling on Monday night.
Game script narrative notwithstanding, Stroud has regressed in 2024. In his second professional season, the Texans’ quarterback has seen decreases in virtually all of his metrics. Despite maintaining nearly the same number of attempts per game (33.3 in 2023 vs. 32.9 in 2024), Stroud is completing fewer throws for fewer yards. While it hasn’t had a material impact on outcomes yet, it’s a concerning trend worth monitoring.
Practically, that’s translated to less effective performances more recently. Stroud has been held below 20.5 completions in four of his past five games, averaging just 17.0 completions over that stretch. Those issues have been compounded by the absence of Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins. While Collins is expected to return to the lineup against the Cowboys, that won’t send Stroud’s metrics into last year’s atmosphere.
Mixon’s presence in the backfield has lessened the burden on Stroud this season, which has ultimately been a good thing for the Texans. However, the unintended consequence is that it’s diminished Stroud’s ceiling in terms of personal accomplishments in the passing game. We’re anticipating that downward trajectory continues, with the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year falling below 20.5 completions in Dallas.
Tank Dell Less 4.5 Completions
Tank Dell failed to make the most of his opportunity. With Diggs and Collins sidelined, Dell could have used that opportunity to cement his position as one of the Texans’ top receivers. Instead, he continued to play a secondary role behind other Houston pass-catchers, hampering his outlook with Collins returning to the lineup in Week 11.
Serving as the premier wideout over the past few weeks, Dell came up short in terms of production. In the four games since Week 7, Dell has exceeded 39 receiving yards only once. Moreover, he’s averaging just 3.8 receptions per game, despite seeing a significant increase in workload. The second-year pro had seen nine targets in each of the past two games but responded with an underwhelming 61.1% catch rate. As a result, John Metchie, Dalton Schultz, and Joe Mixon all had more productive outings than Dell in the Texans’ most recent outing.
Inevitably, Dell’s workload will take a hit with Collins back in the lineup. Throughout the season, Dell is averaging just 6.2 targets per game, and that’s a more accurate representation of anticipated workload moving forward. Additionally, he may have been supplanted by John Metchie in Stroud’s progressions, with the Canadian pulling down eight of the past 12 passes thrown his way.
This is a semi-correlated play with Stroud’s completion total, but there are other factors worth considering. A lighter workload and diminished catch rate hamper Dell’s outlook moving forward. Consequently, he’s projected to fall short of 4.5 receptions against the Cowboys.
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