And then there were two. Only one game stands between us and a Super Bowl champion. In one corner stands the Chiefs. They’ve established themselves as an absolute dynasty with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. He’s led the team to the conference championships in seven straight seasons, and this will be his fifth trip to the Super Bowl. They’ve already won three championships in that stretch, and they’ll be looking for their third straight in 2024-25.
In the other corner stands the Eagles. They were vanquished by the Chiefs in the Super Bowl two years ago, but the fact that they’ve made it back is a testament to their entire roster and front office. It’s not as common as you might think. In fact, Jalen Hurts is the first quarterback to lose his Super Bowl debut and make it back since John Elway. They completely overhauled their roster after a disappointing end to last year, revamping the defense while supercharging the offense with Saquon Barkley.
This is expected to be a competitive contest, and there are plenty of different ways to enjoy it. This article will discuss some of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Chiefs vs. Eagles
Kareem Hunt More Than 0.5 Anytime Touchdowns
The Chiefs’ backfield has been interesting to monitor throughout the postseason. Isiah Pacheco started the year as the team’s clear No. 1 option, but an injury forced him to miss nine games during the regular season. The team was looking for answers in his absence, leading to the signing of Hunt. It didn’t take Hunt long to take over in the team’s backfield with Pacheco sidelined, beating out the likes of Carson Steele and Samaje Perine.
After Pacheco returned to the lineup in Week 13, it was assumed that he would resume his lead-back responsibilities. That hasn’t been the case. This has become a clear committee situation, with Hunt, Pacheco, and Perine all factoring into the equation at times.
That might have been the plan originally, but Pacheco’s ineffectiveness has forced their hand. Pacheco has averaged 3.93 yards per carry or fewer in six straight games, so Hunt has been the superior option. He’s not an explosive runner, but he’s been effective at keeping the offense moving in the right direction:
Hunt has earned more and more of the workload in recent weeks, and he was on the field for 56% of the team’s offensive snaps last week. He’s also been their preferred option around the goal line down the stretch, garnering 74% of the short-yardage opportunities and 75% of the carries from inside the five-yard line since Week 16.
Ultimately, Hunt feels like the most likely to find the paint in the Chiefs’ backfield, and we’re getting him at a solid number in this matchup.
De’Andre Hopkins More Than 16.5 Receiving Yards
The Chiefs acquired Hopkins before the trade deadline to help bolster their receiving corps. Unfortunately, he hasn’t made a huge impact. He’s had just a 53% route participation as a member of the Chiefs, so he’s been a part-time player. He also hasn’t been heavily involved as a pass-catcher, logging just a 14% target share in his 12 games.
There was some thought that perhaps the Chiefs were saving Hopkins for the playoffs…but that hasn’t been the case either. If anything, his involvement in the postseason has decreased. The Chiefs have more mouths to feed at receiver with Marquise Brown back in the lineup, and Hopkins regressed to a 31% route participation in the AFC Championship vs. the Bills.
While the numbers aren’t pretty, Hopkins is a player I still want some exposure to on Sunday. He’s still one of the best receivers of his generation, and he’s playing with one of the greatest quarterbacks in league history. His receiving numbers have also gotten so low that he can theoretically pay them off with just one catch.
It’s not like Hopkins is incapable of producing at this point. We’ve seen him put together solid performances for the Chiefs, racking up at least 29 receiving yards in nine straight games to start his KC tenure. His role has definitely shrunk, but calling him washed-up and irrelevant feels like a mistake.
With some additional time to prepare for this contest – and for Hopkins to rest – this is a spot where his involvement could be ratcheted up a bit. I’m willing to roll the dice.
Saquon Barkley Less Than 22.5 Rushing Attempts
This is an absolutely massive number, and for anyone other than Barkley, it would really jump off the page. That said, Barkley has been an anomaly all season. He’s had at least 23 carries in nine games this season (including playoffs), and he’s been at 25 or higher in four of his past five games.
Still, I just can’t justify this number vs. the Chiefs. All the Chiefs do is win football games, so there’s a good chance that the Eagles are playing this contest from behind. Even if the game is competitive, that can still have an impact on Saquon’s touches. The Bills’ running backs combined for just 21 carries last week, with James Cook receiving merely 13. He was still really effective when he had the ball – he averaged more than 6.5 yards per attempt – but his volume was his lowest of the postseason by a decent mark.
If the Eagles are going to contend in this game, they’re going to need to be more than just a one-dimensional offense. We saw that last week when Hurts put together his most impressive performance of the postseason. He had 246 passing yards, while Barkley was limited to just 15 carries. The offense was better as a whole, racking up 459 yards and a whopping 55 points.
Last week notwithstanding, the Chiefs’ defense has been vastly improved against the run this season. It has been their biggest Achilles heel for years, but they were up to 11th in rush defense EPA during the regular season. It’s a big increase from last year when they were merely 28th.
Add it all up, and I’m seeing some value with less than 22.5 attempts for Barkley in this contest.
A.J. Brown Higher Than 71.5 Receiving Yards
If we’re selling the Eagles’ rushing attack, it makes sense to buy their pass-catchers. That makes Brown a primary target for me in this contest.
The Eagles haven’t taken to the air all that often this season. They were one of the most pass-heavy teams in football during the regular season, and that makes sense with Barkley and Hurts in the backfield.
However, when they have thrown the ball, Brown has been one of the biggest alphas in all of football. He’s posted a massive 34% target share for the year, and he’s racked up 50% of the team’s air yards. In terms of Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR), Brown was first in the league at 88%. Malik Nabers was the only player even in the same ballpark (85%), with the rest of the league sitting at 74% or lower.
Brown was quiet during the first two rounds of the postseason. He had more of an impact on the New York Times Bestseller list than he did on the box score. However, he broke out in a big way in the NFC Championship, racking up eight targets, six catches, 96 yards, and a score. That’s the type of production he’s provided for most of the year, and it’s what the Eagles are going to need from him vs. the Chiefs.
If you’re willing to take on a bit more risk, I like the idea of taking Brown for 100+ yards and possibly even adding in a score. Regardless, I like his chances of clearing 71.5.