NFL

Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Steelers vs. Browns Thursday Night Football

When the NFL put together its 2024 schedule, they probably thought there would be more at stake in Week 12’s Thursday Night Football showdown. The Cleveland Browns were coming off their second playoff appearance and 11-win season of the last four years and were expected to compete in the AFC North. Instead, the Deshaun Watson saga took another turn for the worse and the Browns have stumbled to a disastrous 2-8 record. Conversely, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ stock is the highest it has been in years. Fresh off a crucial win against the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh has cemented its position atop the division standings. They can put more distance between themselves and the rest of the AFC North pack with another decisive win against the Browns.

This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1,500 deposit match.

Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Steelers vs. Browns

Russell Wilson More 16.5 Completions and 26.5 Passing Attempts

An injury kept Russell Wilson out of the starting lineup for the first six weeks of the season, but the Steelers pivoted to the nine-time Pro Bowler ahead of Week 7’s tilt versus the New York Jets. The quarterback switch has paid dividends, as the Steelers are getting more out of their passing game than they did with Justin Fields. That ascent continues against the Browns, with Wilson projected to surpass his completions and passing attempt totals at Huntington Bank Field.

Since Wilson took over, the Steelers have seen a surge in their passing game productivity. Wilson is averaging 30.3 passing attempts and 18.3 completions, yielding 235.5 passing yards per game. Those metrics look equally impressive on a game-by-game basis. The Steelers’ quarterback hasn’t attempted fewer than 28 passes in any game this season, while finishing with more than 16 completions in all but one of those contests. Wilson is poised to maintain those standards against a beatable Browns’ secondary.

Cleveland has seen a decline in its passing defense metrics. Over their last three games, the Browns are giving up 256.0 passing yards per game and a 67.0% completion percentage. Not surprisingly, teams are taking advantage of that ineffective play. Over the same three-game sample, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 21.0 completions on 31.3 pass attempts, both of which are increases relative to Cleveland’s season-long averages of 18.0 and 29.3, respectively.

Mike Tomlin will play any advantage his opponents give him. In Week 12, that means ongoing reliance on the Steelers’ passing game. Wilson has rekindled his Pro Bowl form and has led the Steelers to more impressive offensive showings. We’re betting he maintains that form against the Browns, completing more than 16.5 passes and attempting more than 26.5 throws on Thursday Night Football.

George Pickens More 4.5 Receptions

Inarguably, the player who has benefitted most from Wilson taking over under center is George Pickens. The Steelers’ wideout has seen a sharp increase in his workload and effectiveness when paired with Wilson. Pickens should have no problem eclipsing 4.5 receptions in Week 12.

In six games without Wilson, Pickens had pedestrian numbers. The Georgia product had 56 or fewer yards in four of his six appearances with a suboptimal 59.1% catch rate. In the four games since, he hasn’t fallen below 74 receiving yards with a significantly improved 66.7% catch rate. Pickens’ absolute metrics look equally impressive. He’s recorded seven or more targets and five or more receptions in all but one of those outings while commanding a 27.3% target share.

The Browns’ defensive woes are tied directly to their ineffective pass coverage. Last week, the New Orleans Saints had three players exceed 50 receiving yards and four players record at least three receptions. That’s akin to what we’ve seen from their other recent opponents. The Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, and Cincinnati Bengals all had players with at least five receptions, with 12 different pass-catchers tallying at least three catches.

With the season already lost, Cleveland has abandoned its defensive responsibility. Russell Wilson and George Pickens will be the latest beneficiaries. As Wilson goes, so does Pickens. We’re expecting the Steelers’ top receiver to come up with more than 4.5 receptions against the Browns.

Jerome Ford Less 32.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards

Nick Chubb isn’t getting enough credit for his miraculous recovery following a gruesome knee injury last season. The former second-team All-Pro made a triumphant recovery this offseason, rejoining his Browns’ teammates in Week 7. In doing so, he’s asserted himself as the lead back out of Cleveland’s backfield and eroded Jerome Ford’s workload and outlook moving forward.

Of course, Ford has dealt with his share of injuries this season as well. The third-year pro missed a couple of weeks while dealing with a hamstring ailment and has been used sparingly since returning. In his two games back, Ford has totaled just 15 rushing yards on seven carries, adding 31 receiving yards on five receptions (seven targets).

Predictably, those metrics correlate with a diminished workload. Through five full games before going down with an injury, Ford was averaging 44.8 snaps per game, representing 66.5% of the Browns’ offensive plays. Since returning, he’s down to 38.5 plays and a 51.0% snap percentage.

The Browns will be running into the strength of the Steelers’ defense. Pittsburgh allows just 90.8 rushing yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. Moreover, they’ve corralled pass-catching running backs, limiting the last three teams they’ve faced to a combined 57 receiving yards out of the backfield. All of those factors are working against Ford in his pursuit of 32.5 rushing+receiving yards. We expect him to come up short against a fierce Steelers’ defensive front.

David Njoku Less 4.5 Receptions

Finally, we’re taking a contrarian angle with our last pick. David Njoku is coming off one of his best games of the season, recording 81 yards on nine receptions against the Saints last week. However, it’s unlikely he sustains that form in Week 12.

Pittsburgh was dealing with a rash of injuries to start the year, but they’ve gotten healthy over the past few weeks. Their linebackers’ corps and secondary are looking refreshed, precipitating massive improvement in their pass defense metrics. Over their last three games, the Steelers are allowing a 54.3% completion percentage, which is a substantial improvement relative to their already impressive 61.1% rating this season. Pittsburgh should sustain that form against a turnover-prone Jameis Winston and the Browns’ lackluster passing game.

The Steelers have run a gauntlet of top tight ends, standing firm against every player. Last week, they faced Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews, limiting the Ravens’ tight ends to a combined six catches with neither player recording more than four. Likewise, Zach Ertz was held to four catches the week prior. We have to go all the way back to Week 6 to find a tight end that totaled more than four receptions. As noted, the Steelers are in a much better position now than they were back then.

While Njoku has seen an uptick in target share in the Browns’ failing passing game, he can’t sustain his 100% catch rate from last week. The Browns’ tight end is a natural regression candidate over the coming games, and that’s particularly true against the Steelers’ formidable defense. Njoku will likely see a decline in his catch rate on Thursday, keeping him below 4.5 receptions.

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When the NFL put together its 2024 schedule, they probably thought there would be more at stake in Week 12’s Thursday Night Football showdown. The Cleveland Browns were coming off their second playoff appearance and 11-win season of the last four years and were expected to compete in the AFC North. Instead, the Deshaun Watson saga took another turn for the worse and the Browns have stumbled to a disastrous 2-8 record. Conversely, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ stock is the highest it has been in years. Fresh off a crucial win against the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh has cemented its position atop the division standings. They can put more distance between themselves and the rest of the AFC North pack with another decisive win against the Browns.

This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1,500 deposit match.

Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Steelers vs. Browns

Russell Wilson More 16.5 Completions and 26.5 Passing Attempts

An injury kept Russell Wilson out of the starting lineup for the first six weeks of the season, but the Steelers pivoted to the nine-time Pro Bowler ahead of Week 7’s tilt versus the New York Jets. The quarterback switch has paid dividends, as the Steelers are getting more out of their passing game than they did with Justin Fields. That ascent continues against the Browns, with Wilson projected to surpass his completions and passing attempt totals at Huntington Bank Field.

Since Wilson took over, the Steelers have seen a surge in their passing game productivity. Wilson is averaging 30.3 passing attempts and 18.3 completions, yielding 235.5 passing yards per game. Those metrics look equally impressive on a game-by-game basis. The Steelers’ quarterback hasn’t attempted fewer than 28 passes in any game this season, while finishing with more than 16 completions in all but one of those contests. Wilson is poised to maintain those standards against a beatable Browns’ secondary.

Cleveland has seen a decline in its passing defense metrics. Over their last three games, the Browns are giving up 256.0 passing yards per game and a 67.0% completion percentage. Not surprisingly, teams are taking advantage of that ineffective play. Over the same three-game sample, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 21.0 completions on 31.3 pass attempts, both of which are increases relative to Cleveland’s season-long averages of 18.0 and 29.3, respectively.

Mike Tomlin will play any advantage his opponents give him. In Week 12, that means ongoing reliance on the Steelers’ passing game. Wilson has rekindled his Pro Bowl form and has led the Steelers to more impressive offensive showings. We’re betting he maintains that form against the Browns, completing more than 16.5 passes and attempting more than 26.5 throws on Thursday Night Football.

George Pickens More 4.5 Receptions

Inarguably, the player who has benefitted most from Wilson taking over under center is George Pickens. The Steelers’ wideout has seen a sharp increase in his workload and effectiveness when paired with Wilson. Pickens should have no problem eclipsing 4.5 receptions in Week 12.

In six games without Wilson, Pickens had pedestrian numbers. The Georgia product had 56 or fewer yards in four of his six appearances with a suboptimal 59.1% catch rate. In the four games since, he hasn’t fallen below 74 receiving yards with a significantly improved 66.7% catch rate. Pickens’ absolute metrics look equally impressive. He’s recorded seven or more targets and five or more receptions in all but one of those outings while commanding a 27.3% target share.

The Browns’ defensive woes are tied directly to their ineffective pass coverage. Last week, the New Orleans Saints had three players exceed 50 receiving yards and four players record at least three receptions. That’s akin to what we’ve seen from their other recent opponents. The Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, and Cincinnati Bengals all had players with at least five receptions, with 12 different pass-catchers tallying at least three catches.

With the season already lost, Cleveland has abandoned its defensive responsibility. Russell Wilson and George Pickens will be the latest beneficiaries. As Wilson goes, so does Pickens. We’re expecting the Steelers’ top receiver to come up with more than 4.5 receptions against the Browns.

Jerome Ford Less 32.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards

Nick Chubb isn’t getting enough credit for his miraculous recovery following a gruesome knee injury last season. The former second-team All-Pro made a triumphant recovery this offseason, rejoining his Browns’ teammates in Week 7. In doing so, he’s asserted himself as the lead back out of Cleveland’s backfield and eroded Jerome Ford’s workload and outlook moving forward.

Of course, Ford has dealt with his share of injuries this season as well. The third-year pro missed a couple of weeks while dealing with a hamstring ailment and has been used sparingly since returning. In his two games back, Ford has totaled just 15 rushing yards on seven carries, adding 31 receiving yards on five receptions (seven targets).

Predictably, those metrics correlate with a diminished workload. Through five full games before going down with an injury, Ford was averaging 44.8 snaps per game, representing 66.5% of the Browns’ offensive plays. Since returning, he’s down to 38.5 plays and a 51.0% snap percentage.

The Browns will be running into the strength of the Steelers’ defense. Pittsburgh allows just 90.8 rushing yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. Moreover, they’ve corralled pass-catching running backs, limiting the last three teams they’ve faced to a combined 57 receiving yards out of the backfield. All of those factors are working against Ford in his pursuit of 32.5 rushing+receiving yards. We expect him to come up short against a fierce Steelers’ defensive front.

David Njoku Less 4.5 Receptions

Finally, we’re taking a contrarian angle with our last pick. David Njoku is coming off one of his best games of the season, recording 81 yards on nine receptions against the Saints last week. However, it’s unlikely he sustains that form in Week 12.

Pittsburgh was dealing with a rash of injuries to start the year, but they’ve gotten healthy over the past few weeks. Their linebackers’ corps and secondary are looking refreshed, precipitating massive improvement in their pass defense metrics. Over their last three games, the Steelers are allowing a 54.3% completion percentage, which is a substantial improvement relative to their already impressive 61.1% rating this season. Pittsburgh should sustain that form against a turnover-prone Jameis Winston and the Browns’ lackluster passing game.

The Steelers have run a gauntlet of top tight ends, standing firm against every player. Last week, they faced Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews, limiting the Ravens’ tight ends to a combined six catches with neither player recording more than four. Likewise, Zach Ertz was held to four catches the week prior. We have to go all the way back to Week 6 to find a tight end that totaled more than four receptions. As noted, the Steelers are in a much better position now than they were back then.

While Njoku has seen an uptick in target share in the Browns’ failing passing game, he can’t sustain his 100% catch rate from last week. The Browns’ tight end is a natural regression candidate over the coming games, and that’s particularly true against the Steelers’ formidable defense. Njoku will likely see a decline in his catch rate on Thursday, keeping him below 4.5 receptions.

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About the Author

Born and raised in the barren ground of Canada, Grant White was nurtured by sports growing up. He spent years honing his betting craft before being joining FantasyLabs and Action Network in 2021. With a keen eye for value, Grant sets his sights on any perceived imbalance for a long-term winning edge.