It’s hard to believe, but we’re already down to the final Thursday Night Football game of the season, and Week 17’s showdown pits two NFC foes against each other. The Seattle Seahawks are desperately clinging to their postseason aspirations. They have fallen out of favor in the NFC West and are one of two teams still in the running for a wild card berth. Still, the Seahawks need everything to go their way if they hope to pull off a small miracle and reclaim a playoff spot. That starts with tonight’s battle at Soldier Field when they take on the perpetually rebuilding Chicago Bears. A nine-game losing streak and historical mid-season coaching change have forced Chicago to re-evaluate its next steps forward. But if there’s a moral victory for the Bears to cling to, it’s embracing the role of spoiler and upsetting the balance of the playoff race.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Seahawks vs. Bears
D’Andre Swift Less 74.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Mid-season coaching changes rarely work out well, which may be why the Bears avoided doing it for the first 102 years of their existence. But Matt Eberflus left Chicago no choice after the disastrous ending to Week 13’s loss to the Detroit Lions. As was the case with his predecessor, the impact on Caleb Williams may be felt more long-term; however, we’ve seen an immediate shift in D’Andre Swift’s potential.
Since Week 13, the Bears running back has seen a decline in his usage. Swift is down to 13.3 rushing attempts per game, a two-point drop relative to the 15.3 he was averaging in the 10 preceding games. Likewise, he’s seeing less action in the Bears’ passing attack. Swift has seen just nine targets across his last four games, equaling 2.3 targets per game. That’s another significant departure from the 3.6 Swift was averaging through the first 10 games of the year.
More concerningly, that decline in usage correlates with a sharper decrease in productivity. Swift is down to 3.3 yards per carry and 8.9 yards per reception over his recent schedule, which are both decreases relative to season-long values. Further, his metrics look even worse when measured on a more absolute basis. The former Pro Bowler has been held to 39 rushing yards or fewer in three of four games and 10 or fewer receiving yards in two of the past three. Altogether, Swift is averaging just 64.3 rushing+receiving yards per game across the last four.
While they haven’t recaptured their Legion of Boom glory, the Seahawks’ defense is much improved compared to years past. Coming off a 298-yard performance last time out, we’re predicting a similarly staunch effort against the Bears. The end result should include Swift falling below 74.5 rushing+receiving yards.
Zach Charbonnet Less 3.5 Receptions and Less 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
According to our projections, there are two equally profitable positions to take on Zach Charbonnet ahead of tonight’s tilt versus the Bears. First, the Seahawks running back is projected to fall below 3.5 receptions. Second, he’s forecasted to have a hard time surpassing 94.5 rushing + receiving yards against an imposing Chicago defense.
While Charbonnet’s workload will increase with Kenneth Walker on the shelf tonight, his limited effectiveness hampers his outlook versus the Bears. Charbonnet had just one rushing attempt last week, and he mustered -1 yard on the play. That was the third time in six weeks that he fell below 3.7 yards per rushing attempt and the 13th time in 15 games in which he has fallen below 54 rushing yards. It’s worth noting that this sample includes four starts.
Moreover, Charbonnet has seen decreased effectiveness and involvement in the Seahawks’ passing game. Over the last six games, the second-year pro has recorded more than 14 receiving yards only once. Additionally, he’s been held to two or fewer receptions in all but one of those contests while averaging just 3.0 targets per game. Even in an increased role, we’re not forecasting a notable increase in Charbonnet’s receiving metrics.
The Bears’ defense hasn’t earned a reputation for being one of the best in the game this season, but their best efforts typically come at home. There, they limit opponents to an average of 354.1 yards per game, a benchmark that should be on the decline after Thursday Night Football.
Charbonnet doesn’t project as an elite betting option on tonight’s slate. As such, our recommendation is taking him to fall below 3.5 receptions or 94.5 rushing + receiving yards against the Bears.
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