Things could get a little ugly on Monday Night Football. The 5-9 New Orleans Saints are still without Derek Carr as they head into the frigid temperatures of Lambeau Field for a date with the Green Bay Packers. Earlier in the year, they tasked Spencer Rattler with filling in for Carr, and he was removed after a game and a half in favor of Jake Haener. Last week, Haener was the de facto starter before he was benched and replaced by Rattler. Now, with Rattler back under center, the Saints will struggle to get anything going against the Packers’ top-10 defense. Green Bay’s presumed dominance is reflected in the spread, as the Packers enter this NFC showdown as prohibitive -14.5 favorites.
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Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Saints vs. Packers
Dante Pettis Less 2.5 Receptions
An injury-riddled receiver corps forced New Orleans to seek outside help partway through the season. Chris Olave remains out with a head injury, Rashid Shaheed is scheduled to have knee surgery, Bub Means is dealing with an ankle issue, Taysom Hill is on the IR, and the list goes on. Consequently, the team inked Dante Pettis back in October, eventually earning his promotion to the active roster in November. With the rash of injuries, Pettis has moved into a more prominent role on offense. Still, he projects to fall below 2.5 receptions against the Packers.
Pettis hasn’t been a primary offensive weapon since his rookie season back in 2018. In the five seasons since, including missing the entirety of the 2023 campaign after being let go by the Chicago Bears in September, the California native has recorded just 563 yards on 49 receptions. His time with the Saints reflects his diminished capacity. Pettis has been targeted just 11 times in five outings, hauling in just five of those passes thrown his way. Sadly, his 45.5% catch rate reflects his typical reliability. In his last full season in 2022, Pettis posted just a 46.3% catch rate in 17 games (seven starts), and he has a career benchmark of 53.1%.
Those metrics are unlikely to improve with Spencer Rattler throwing him the ball. In parts of four games this season, the rookie signal-caller is completing just 57.5% of his passes. Further, all of those appearances came in the comfort of indoor stadiums, including three games at home. Now playing in freezing temperatures at Lambeau, we’re forecasting a deterioration of Rattler’s already limited effectiveness.
Pettis is coming off a five-target performance last time out. Still, he pulled down only two receptions against the porous Washington Commanders’ defense, illustrating his diminished potential. Pettis is unlikely to see a boost against the Packers at Lambeau. As a result, we’re betting he records fewer than 2.5 receptions on Monday Night Football.
Kendre Miller Less 53.5 Rushing Yards
The Saints’ injury woes are not limited to receivers, though. Alvin Kamara will also miss Week 16’s tilt versus the Pack, forcing Kendre Miller into a starting role. He’ll be running into the strength of the Packers’ defense, and it’s unlikely he excels.
Miller has been used sparingly this season, and his game totals reflect as much. The second-year pro has tallied 28 carries in four games, without surpassing 46 yards in any contest. Moreover, Miller will be splitting the workload with former 1,000-yard rusher Jamaal Williams. Williams’ workload has decreased in recent weeks, but that was when the Saints had both Kamara and Miller in the lineup. With Kamara out, Williams will see a boost in his usage metrics, eroding Miller’s potential out of the backfield.
Whoever is carrying the football won’t gain much traction against the Packers. Green Bay ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and has amped up the intensity in recent weeks. Over the last three contests, opponents are mustering just 76.7 rushing yards per game, a nearly 30-yard drop relative to their season-long average of 105.0. Likewise, yards per carry are down from 4.2 to 3.6.
The Saints’ outlook against the Packers is bleak. Secondary and tertiary options have been forced into starting roles, which should result in a lopsided affair. Miller is one of those players who will be operating at a deficit and should fall below 53.5 rushing yards on Monday night.
Josh Jacobs Less 2.5 Receptions
In his first season in Green Bay, Josh Jacobs is thriving. The former All-Pro has already eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing and has seen a more robust workload over the past few games. Still, his effectiveness on the ground takes precedence over his involvement in the passing game. With the Packers projected to lead from the outset, it’s unlikely we see an increase in Jacobs’ receiving metrics against the Saints.
The Packers typically deploy Jacobs as their run-first option. Over his last seven games, he’s averaging 20.7 carries per game, while eclipsing 25 touches on three occasions. Across the same sample, he’s seen less involvement in the passing attack. The two-time Pro Bowler is averaging 2.1 receptions on 2.7 targets per game, while falling below two catches in four of the seven contests.
From a game script perspective, Green Bay won’t need Jacobs to be operating at peak efficiency in the passing game to get past the Saints. The Packers will likely prioritize a possession-driven performance, milking the clock and keeping the ball out of the Saints’ hands. As a result, Jacobs’ touches out of the backfield will remain high, but he won’t be tasked with serving as an outlet for Jordan Love in the aerial assault.
The FantasyLabs projections reveal an edge in backing Jacobs to record fewer than 2.5 receptions, and our analysis supports the same. A hefty workload appears inevitable, just not in the passing attack.
