NFL

Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Saints vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football

It will be hard to match the intensity or drama of last night’s thrilling Dallas Cowboys win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs will try. The Saints got off to the hottest start in the NFL, winning their first two games by a 91-29 margin, but they’ve cooled off over their past couple of outings. Conversely, the Chiefs have kept the good times rolling since Week 1, with the defending Super Bowl Champion off to a perfect 4-0. Still, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have been operating below peak efficiency to start the campaign. That’s the warning message the NFL didn’t need as someone tries to dethrone the back-to-back champs. New Orleans will ply its hand on Monday Night Football, looking to stymie KC’s hot start.

This article will discuss 2 or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Saints vs. Chiefs

Derek Carr More 20.5 Passing Completions

We know one thing is true for most teams facing the Chiefs — opponents need to unleash their offense if they hope to keep pace with Mahomes. That’s the standard we’re anticipating in tonight’s inter-conference clash, as Derek Carr turns to the passing game early and often to get the Saints moving. Consequently, Carr should sail over his passing completion projection at Arrowhead Stadium.

Saints head coach Dennis Allen has been somewhat apprehensive in taking the reigns off Carr and the aerial assault, but we saw what happened last week when they were trailing for most of the second half against the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints quarterback attempted a season-high 36 pass attempts while completing 28 en route to the loss.

Shockingly, Carr’s 77.8% completion percentage last week wasn’t a steep departure from his season average. The four-time Pro Bowler has been efficient to start 2024, completing 72.0% of his throws. Using that as a stepping-off point, he would only need to attempt 29 passes to have a realistic shot at eclipsing his passing total.

As we’re seeing, opponents have no choice but to throw the ball against the Chiefs. Kansas City continues to outshine its opponents offensively, forcing opponents to lean into their passing game. Heading into Week 5, opponents are averaging 33.3 pass attempts per game, putting Carr well past the expected range he needs to land in to hit more than 20.5 completions. When the dust settles on this one, he should find his way north of that total.

Chris Olave More 4.5 Receptions

While Carr has a stable of wide receivers to choose from, he’s re-established his connection with Chris Olave early this season. The Saints wide receiver was featured lightly in the season opener but has taken on a more prominent role over the past few weeks. That momentum carries Olave into tonight’s tilt versus the Chiefs, and we like him to cash in on more than 4.5 receptions.

All but two of Olave’s 24 targets have come over the past three weeks. Over that sample, he’s been targeted no fewer than six times in any outing while going off for at least 81 yards each time out. The former first-round pick has been Carr’s most reliable pass-catcher this year, hauling in 20 of 24 looks and representing an All-Pro-worthy 83.3% catch rate. More impressively, he’s missed only two of the 16 balls thrown his way over the last couple of games.

Kansas City’s pass defense isn’t as imposing as it has been in years past. Three receivers posted a catch rate above 75.0% in last week’s contest while being targeted four or more times. Likewise, Drake London and Darnell Mooney combined for 14 receptions on 17 targets the week prior. In total, seven players have recorded at least five receptions against the Chiefs this year, setting the stage for another strong outing from Olave.

We’re anticipating a heavy dose of the Saints passing attack on MNF, and Olave will be the feature performer. His success is tied to Carr’s, and we expect both players to deliver.

Patrick Mahomes More 33.5 Passing Attempts

Andy Reid is the type of coach who finds your biggest weakness and exploits it unmercifully. In preparing for Monday night’s showdown against the Saints, he likely spotted the deficiency in the Saints secondary. As a result, New Orleans should expect an unrelenting attack from Patrick Mahomes, leading to more than 33.5 passing attempts.

The Saints have been atrocious at defending the pass this year, but they’ve looked particularly bad over their last three contests. New Orleans ranks in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed (233.8) and opponent completions per game (22.8), with a sub-optimal 6.4 yards per pass attempt, ranking 15th in the league. Worse, those metrics have eroded over their last three games, inflating to 266.7, 26.0, and 7.0, respectively. That’s too many holes for Mahomes to exploit.

The two-time MVP is up to his usual antics to start the season. Mahomes’ 68.6% completion percentage is the best it has ever been, and he’s averaging 30.3 pass attempts per game. Still, he’s operating below his normal range in yards per pass attempt, adjusted yards per pass attempt, and touchdown percentage, implying the best has yet to come.

An increased reliance on the passing game is supported by lackluster rushing production. The Chiefs are mustering just 112.5 rushing yards per game, falling into the bottom half of the NFL. Limited effectiveness correlates with fewer play calls, as Kansas City is toting the ball just 46.4% of the time, which is lower than we’d expect a 4-0 team to be.

Mahomes will be given the keys to the car in tonight’s battle versus the Saints, and we expect him to drive away untouched. The Chiefs’ field general should have no problem surpassing 33.5 pass attempts on primetime.

Noah Gray More 1.5 Receptions

This is going to be a hard pill for Chiefs fans to swallow, but Travis Kelce is on the decline. The future Hall of Famer has fallen below career averages in his age-35 season, and he’s unlikely to recapture the magic that made him a four-time All-Pro. Thankfully, they have an adequate replacement in Noah Gray, who has taken on a more robust role on offense this season.

Gray is on pace for a banner year. Through four games, he’s hauled in eight receptions and 90 yards on nine targets, putting him on pace to surpass every career-high he set last season. Moreover, his usage metrics support that his role on the Chiefs is being increased. Gray is being deployed 52.9% of the time, which is well above the 45.6% he was playing over the second half of last season. That validates the increase in his pass-catching metrics and supports ongoing production throughout the season.

Gray’s ascent is supported by a lackluster Saints defense that has struggled to contain opposing tight ends. New Orleans was burned by Dallas Goedert and Luke Schoonmaker this year, with the opposing tight ends combining for 16 receptions on 17 targets in Weeks 2 and 3. A similar workload will be divvied up between Gray and Kelce on Monday night, and we expect both tight ends to thrive.

All signs point to more involvement from Gray this season, and we expect that to carry into tonight’s home affair versus the Saints. We’re backing the Chiefs tight end to record more than 1.5 receptions as he takes more of the workload of Kelce’s aging plate.

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It will be hard to match the intensity or drama of last night’s thrilling Dallas Cowboys win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs will try. The Saints got off to the hottest start in the NFL, winning their first two games by a 91-29 margin, but they’ve cooled off over their past couple of outings. Conversely, the Chiefs have kept the good times rolling since Week 1, with the defending Super Bowl Champion off to a perfect 4-0. Still, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have been operating below peak efficiency to start the campaign. That’s the warning message the NFL didn’t need as someone tries to dethrone the back-to-back champs. New Orleans will ply its hand on Monday Night Football, looking to stymie KC’s hot start.

This article will discuss 2 or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Saints vs. Chiefs

Derek Carr More 20.5 Passing Completions

We know one thing is true for most teams facing the Chiefs — opponents need to unleash their offense if they hope to keep pace with Mahomes. That’s the standard we’re anticipating in tonight’s inter-conference clash, as Derek Carr turns to the passing game early and often to get the Saints moving. Consequently, Carr should sail over his passing completion projection at Arrowhead Stadium.

Saints head coach Dennis Allen has been somewhat apprehensive in taking the reigns off Carr and the aerial assault, but we saw what happened last week when they were trailing for most of the second half against the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints quarterback attempted a season-high 36 pass attempts while completing 28 en route to the loss.

Shockingly, Carr’s 77.8% completion percentage last week wasn’t a steep departure from his season average. The four-time Pro Bowler has been efficient to start 2024, completing 72.0% of his throws. Using that as a stepping-off point, he would only need to attempt 29 passes to have a realistic shot at eclipsing his passing total.

As we’re seeing, opponents have no choice but to throw the ball against the Chiefs. Kansas City continues to outshine its opponents offensively, forcing opponents to lean into their passing game. Heading into Week 5, opponents are averaging 33.3 pass attempts per game, putting Carr well past the expected range he needs to land in to hit more than 20.5 completions. When the dust settles on this one, he should find his way north of that total.

Chris Olave More 4.5 Receptions

While Carr has a stable of wide receivers to choose from, he’s re-established his connection with Chris Olave early this season. The Saints wide receiver was featured lightly in the season opener but has taken on a more prominent role over the past few weeks. That momentum carries Olave into tonight’s tilt versus the Chiefs, and we like him to cash in on more than 4.5 receptions.

All but two of Olave’s 24 targets have come over the past three weeks. Over that sample, he’s been targeted no fewer than six times in any outing while going off for at least 81 yards each time out. The former first-round pick has been Carr’s most reliable pass-catcher this year, hauling in 20 of 24 looks and representing an All-Pro-worthy 83.3% catch rate. More impressively, he’s missed only two of the 16 balls thrown his way over the last couple of games.

Kansas City’s pass defense isn’t as imposing as it has been in years past. Three receivers posted a catch rate above 75.0% in last week’s contest while being targeted four or more times. Likewise, Drake London and Darnell Mooney combined for 14 receptions on 17 targets the week prior. In total, seven players have recorded at least five receptions against the Chiefs this year, setting the stage for another strong outing from Olave.

We’re anticipating a heavy dose of the Saints passing attack on MNF, and Olave will be the feature performer. His success is tied to Carr’s, and we expect both players to deliver.

Patrick Mahomes More 33.5 Passing Attempts

Andy Reid is the type of coach who finds your biggest weakness and exploits it unmercifully. In preparing for Monday night’s showdown against the Saints, he likely spotted the deficiency in the Saints secondary. As a result, New Orleans should expect an unrelenting attack from Patrick Mahomes, leading to more than 33.5 passing attempts.

The Saints have been atrocious at defending the pass this year, but they’ve looked particularly bad over their last three contests. New Orleans ranks in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed (233.8) and opponent completions per game (22.8), with a sub-optimal 6.4 yards per pass attempt, ranking 15th in the league. Worse, those metrics have eroded over their last three games, inflating to 266.7, 26.0, and 7.0, respectively. That’s too many holes for Mahomes to exploit.

The two-time MVP is up to his usual antics to start the season. Mahomes’ 68.6% completion percentage is the best it has ever been, and he’s averaging 30.3 pass attempts per game. Still, he’s operating below his normal range in yards per pass attempt, adjusted yards per pass attempt, and touchdown percentage, implying the best has yet to come.

An increased reliance on the passing game is supported by lackluster rushing production. The Chiefs are mustering just 112.5 rushing yards per game, falling into the bottom half of the NFL. Limited effectiveness correlates with fewer play calls, as Kansas City is toting the ball just 46.4% of the time, which is lower than we’d expect a 4-0 team to be.

Mahomes will be given the keys to the car in tonight’s battle versus the Saints, and we expect him to drive away untouched. The Chiefs’ field general should have no problem surpassing 33.5 pass attempts on primetime.

Noah Gray More 1.5 Receptions

This is going to be a hard pill for Chiefs fans to swallow, but Travis Kelce is on the decline. The future Hall of Famer has fallen below career averages in his age-35 season, and he’s unlikely to recapture the magic that made him a four-time All-Pro. Thankfully, they have an adequate replacement in Noah Gray, who has taken on a more robust role on offense this season.

Gray is on pace for a banner year. Through four games, he’s hauled in eight receptions and 90 yards on nine targets, putting him on pace to surpass every career-high he set last season. Moreover, his usage metrics support that his role on the Chiefs is being increased. Gray is being deployed 52.9% of the time, which is well above the 45.6% he was playing over the second half of last season. That validates the increase in his pass-catching metrics and supports ongoing production throughout the season.

Gray’s ascent is supported by a lackluster Saints defense that has struggled to contain opposing tight ends. New Orleans was burned by Dallas Goedert and Luke Schoonmaker this year, with the opposing tight ends combining for 16 receptions on 17 targets in Weeks 2 and 3. A similar workload will be divvied up between Gray and Kelce on Monday night, and we expect both tight ends to thrive.

All signs point to more involvement from Gray this season, and we expect that to carry into tonight’s home affair versus the Saints. We’re backing the Chiefs tight end to record more than 1.5 receptions as he takes more of the workload of Kelce’s aging plate.

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About the Author

Born and raised in the barren ground of Canada, Grant White was nurtured by sports growing up. He spent years honing his betting craft before being joining FantasyLabs and Action Network in 2021. With a keen eye for value, Grant sets his sights on any perceived imbalance for a long-term winning edge.