Week 7 of the NFL season concludes with a Monday Night Football doubleheader. The defense could be an afterthought in Central Florida. The high-octane Tampa Bay Buccaneers invite the suddenly defenseless Baltimore Ravens to town for what should be an explosive inter-conference affair. The second contest pits two fringe playoff teams against each other. Both the Los Angeles Chargers and Arizona Cardinals are desperately looking for a win to stay in their respective playoff races. Arizona is looking to kick its offense into gear while the Chargers play a more methodical brand of football premised on defense. One of those strengths will shine through, with one of those squads leaving with a hard-fought victory.
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Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Ravens vs. Buccaneers, Chargers vs. Cardinals
Lamar Jackson More 28.5 Passing Attempts
Lamar Jackson will be the next quarterback to thrive against the Buccaneers’ ineffective pass defense. Ranking near the bottom of most pass defense categories, Tampa Bay has been completely ineffective at preventing the pass. That means it’s open season for Jackson and the Ravens’ underappreciated aerial assault.
Through the first six weeks of the season, the Bucs have given up the fourth-most passing yards (252.3), second-most completions per game (26.5), and second-most pass attempts per game (40.8). Worse, all of those benchmarks are on the rise. Over their last three games, the Buccaneers are giving up 271 yards on 27.3 completions and 43.0 pass attempts. Opponents have found Tampa Bay’s most prominent weakness and have been exploiting it unmercifully.
Tampa Bay’s pass defense decline coincides with an invigorated Ravens attack. Jackson is throwing the ball more than he has at any point over the past four seasons. Through six games, the three-time MVP is averaging 29.3 pass attempts per game while going north of 34 pass attempts in three of those outings. Increased reliance on the passing game hasn’t come at the expense of effectiveness. Jackson is on pace with last year’s career-best completion percentage, succeeding on 67.0% of his passes. Further, he’s set a new career-high with 8.7 yards per pass attempt.
Those sterling metrics validate ongoing commitment to airing it out, and that’s particularly true against a vulnerable Bucs’ secondary. As a result, Jackson should easily find his way north of 28.5 pass attempts at Raymond James Stadium.
Mike Evans More 4.5 Receptions
Despite trotting out one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, the Bucs are still 4-2 and leading the NFC South. As inferred, that’s because their offense is operating at peak efficiency, with a strong emphasis on their own passing game. While Mike Evans may have been supplanted as the preferred receiver in Baker Mayfield’s progressions, he remains a top threat and should have a nice bounce-back game at home.
Evans is coming off his worst game of the season. The 31-year-old caught just two of six targets in last week’s win over the New Orleans Saints for a season-worst 33.3% catch rate and 5.7 yards per target. As a result, his season-long benchmarks have dipped below normal ranges, making Evans a natural progression candidate in the short term. From 2020 through 2023, he had a 61.7% catch rate and 9.1 yards per target. This year, Evans is down to 59.5% and 7.4. Even with age-related decline, the Bucs’ wide receiver is operating below expected and primed for a rebound effort against the Ravens.
It helps that the Ravens are equally atrocious on defense. Baltimore ranks dead-last in passing yards allowed per game (275.7) with the 10th-worst completion percentage allowed (67.2%). That should afford Evans the time and space he needs to surpass most of his receiving totals. Still, the most pronounced advantage is backing him to record more than 4.5 receptions.
J.K. Dobbins Less 2.5 Receptions
Most people could have predicted where Jim Harbaugh would lead the Chargers. Los Angeles has re-established itself as a defensive powerhouse, relying on the ground game to control the tempo and keep opposing offenses off the field. Harbaugh has implemented his strategy flawlessly, resulting in a renewed effort from J.K. Dobbins. While the Chargers’ running back remains their go-to option out of the backfield, he is rarely deployed in the passing game. As such, we’re expecting him to fall short of 2.5 receptions on Monday Night Football.
Dobbins is the Chargers’ run-first half-back. He’s averaging a career-best 16.2 rush attempts per game, representing 86.2% of his touches this season. As implied, Dobbins is rarely used as anything more than a check-down option in the passing game. The former second-round pick hasn’t soaked more than three receptions in any contest this season while averaging just 2.6 targets per game.
Even with Gus Edwards on the sideline, Dobbins hasn’t seen an increase in his passing game usage. In last week’s AFC West battle against the Denver Broncos, Kimani Vidal was deployed as the pass-catching running back option. Vidal hauled in both of the passes thrown his way, going off for 40 yards, vastly surpassing the six yards Dobbins managed on his two catches. In that regard, we should see Vidal take on a more prominent role in the passing game, handcuffing Dobbins to the carrying duties.
All of the data supports limited usage for Dobbins in the passing game. We’re betting that trend continues into Week 7, with the 25-year-old falling below 2.5 receptions against the Cardinals.
Trey McBride Less 51.5 Receiving Yards
Regression looms large for Trey McBride. The Cardinals tight end is coming off his best game of the season but faces the daunting task of repeating his performance against a stout Chargers defensive front. Our projections and analysis support that he’ll have a hard time replicating that success on Monday night.
McBride broke out in 2023, setting high marks across the board. As we’re seeing, he’s been unable to build off that success early this season. The former second-round pick has seen a decline in his efficiency metrics, posting declines in his catch rate and yards per target. Unfortunately, that position is analogous to what we’re expecting from him against the Chargers. He’s coming off a 96-yard effort in which he hauled in all eight of the passes thrown his way. That’s a substantial deviation from what we had seen from McBride earlier in the campaign, implying that he’s due for immediate correction.
The Chargers have fared well at containing tight ends. Last week, Lucas Krull was held to just 11 yards on two receptions, with Nate Adkins grabbing just one catch for five yards. That’s representative of LA’s overall efficiency. Over their last four games, Travis Kelce is the only tight end to exceed 33 receiving yards.
Several factors point to a diminished effort from McBride. The Cardinals tight end will be hard-pressed to replicate last week’s effort. Those concerns are amplified against a fierce Chargers front seven. As such, we’re expecting McBride to come up short of 51.5 receiving yards.
