Seven months after claiming their second straight Super Bowl Championship, the Kansas City Chiefs take to the field ready to defend their crown. NFL schedule-makers couldn’t have picked a better matchup, pitting the Chiefs against their AFC Championship foes, the Baltimore Ravens. Kansas City took care of business this offseason, re-signing its key defensive stalwarts while adding to their offensive stockpile via the draft. Likewise, the Ravens solidified their backfield by signing the most accomplished running back of the last 10 years. That leaves bettors with a salivating season-opening matchup on Thursday Night Football.
This article will discuss 2 or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy where you can use Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Ravens vs. Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes More 36.5 Pass Attempts
There’s no denying what Patrick Mahomes means to the Kansas City Chiefs offense. The two-time MVP has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in all six of his seasons as the starter, attempting no fewer than 597 pass attempts in any of his last three. That high-volume approach carries him into tonight’s showdown versus the Ravens, and we expect Mahomes to exceed his pass attempts prop.
Andy Reid unleashes his quarterback every chance he can get. Kansas City had the seventh-highest passing play percentage in 2023, turning to the aerial attack 60.3% of the time. That was virtually on par with the 2022 campaign, in which the Chiefs threw the ball on 61.4% of offensive plays. Practically, that translated to 37.3 passing attempts per game for Mahomes, a benchmark he should have no problem reaching in Week 1.
When the stakes are highest, Reid turns to his All-Pro signal-caller more frequently. Mahomes attempted 39 or more pass attempts in three of the Chiefs’ four playoff games last season. Included in that sample was the AFC Championship Game, in which Mahomes threw the ball 39 times in the decisive victory. A similar workload is expected on Thursday night.
In a tightly contested rematch of last season’s championship tilt, we’re expecting Mahomes to have full control of the offense. Assuredly, his high-volume throwing approach will help him eclipse 36.5 passing attempts against the Ravens.
Isiah Pacheco Less 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Isiah Pacheco is back for his third season as the lead back of the Chiefs offense. While the former seventh-round pick has been the bell cow in the backfield, his usage and productivity takes a hit in the red zone. Consequently, we’re taking him to stay below 0.5 rushing touchdowns.
Without question, Pacheco is the Chiefs’ primary rushing weapon. He led the team with 935 rushing yards on 205 attempts in 2023, improving both totals from his rookie campaign. Moreover, he became a prominent target in the passing attack, hauling in 44 of 49 targets. As much as Pacheco means to the team, he’s a tertiary contributor in the red zone behind Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.
Pacheco’s 42 red zone touches ranked seventh in the NFL. But more concerningly, the Chiefs running back only yielded six touchdowns inside the 20, dropping him to 13th in the NFL. As expected, there’s an inverse relationship between Mahomes and Kelce’s metrics. The Chiefs quarterback threw the ball 97 times inside the red zone, resulting in 24 scores. The lion’s share of those went to his preferred target, with Kelce soaking 20 targets for five TDs.
As noted, Kansas City relies heavily on Mahomes to drive the offense, and this comes at the expense of Pacheco inside the red zone. We’re expecting that trend to continue early against a fierce Ravens defensive front, with Pacheco finishing with less than 0.5 rushing touchdowns.
Derrick Henry More 66.5 Rushing Yards (Currently ‘On Sale’ for 53.5 Yards)
For years, the Ravens have been one of the most dominant rushing teams in the NFL. They consistently rank near the top of the percentage rushing plays category, leading the league in three of the past five seasons. That amplifies Derrick Henry’s outlook heading into the 2024 campaign as he re-establishes himself as the pre-eminent running back of the NFL.
There is no diminishing King Henry’s accomplishments. The 30-year-old has run for at least 937 yards in all six seasons as a starter. The only time he came in below 1,059 was in 2021, when he started just eight games due to injury.
Even though he’s getting a little long in the tooth, it hasn’t impacted his effectiveness. Over the past three seasons, Henry has averaged 4.2, 4.4, and 4.3 yards per carry. Joining a Ravens side that runs the ball more than any other team should translate to an increase in his year-end rushing totals, starting in Week 1 versus the Chiefs.
As stout as the Chiefs were defensively, there are gaps in their rushing defense. KC finished with a middling 113.0 rushing yards allowed per game, finishing 13th in the NFL.
Baltimore forgot how to run the ball in the AFC Championship Game, and we expect them to make amends in the season opener. An unrelenting rushing attack that features one of the top running backs of this decade will have no problems breaking off yards in chunks. As a result, we’re expecting Henry to finish with more than 66.5 rushing yards.
Noah Gray More 1.5 Receptions
While much of the laudation is showered upon Travis Kelce for what he contributes to the Chiefs offense, Noah Gray has quietly asserted himself as a quality pass-catching option. Playing in Kelce’s shadow has done nothing to increase his betting profile, but bettors can use that to their advantage, starting with tonight’s tilt at Arrowhead Stadium.
Gray enters the AFC tilt with a modest 1.5 receptions prop, a benchmark he should have no issue surpassing. The tight end started ten games for the Chiefs in 2024, with 28 receptions on 41 targets for 305 receiving yards. Somewhat surprisingly, his 68.3% catch rate was below his career average of 74.1% and even further off his 2022 rating of 82.4%, implying that Gray is a prime progression candidate this season.
As we saw in the playoffs, Baltimore couldn’t cover the Chiefs tight ends. Kelce and Gray were targeted a combined 16 times. While Kelce did most of the damage, Gray still managed to grab two of five targets, enhancing his outlook heading into Thursday Night Football.
Including the postseason, Gray hauled in at least two receptions in 11 games last year. Moreover, he was targeted at least three times in five of the Chiefs’ last seven games. Therefore, Gray has the workload and faculties to eclipse 1.5 receptions in the season opener.
