Any time the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams take to the field, you know there’s something special in store. That’s even more true as these NFC West rivals get ready for Week 15’s tilt on Thursday Night Football. Both teams need to make up ground on the division-leading Seattle Seahawks, and neither can afford a slip-up if they hope to stay in the crowded playoff race. This one could turn into a good old-fashioned slobber-knocker as the 49ers and Rams battle it out for a much-needed win.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1,500 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Rams vs. 49ers
Brock Purdy More 20.5 Completions and 30.5 Passing Attempts (can’t pair both together but can use in different plays)
A rash of injuries has depleted the 49ers’ running back corps. First Christian McCaffrey was unavailable, then Jordan Mason went down with an injury, and now Isaac Guerendo is questionable versus the Rams. No disrespect to Guerendo and Patrick Taylor, but if the 49ers hope to emerge victorious, they’ll need Brock Purdy to be at his best.
Thankfully, San Francisco’s quarterback is coming into the contest on solid footing. Purdy completed 20 of 25 passes in last week’s convincing win over the Chicago Bears. That performance was indicative of his improving completion percentage. Purdy has completed 68.4% of his passes over his past five games. Still, his season-long average of 66.8% is below his career average of 68.0%, implying further correction is anticipated over his coming games.
There’s also a precedent for increased passing game usage without McCaffrey. Through the first seven games of the season, Purdy was averaging 19.7 completions on 30.9 pass attempts per game. However, Purdy’s pass attempts have dipped to 26.6 across his last five games. Combined with his increasing completion percentage, the Pro Bowl quarterback should have no problem replicating his success from last week.
We also can’t look past the Rams’ shoddy pass defense. The Rams sit in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed and opponent completion percentage. As expected, those metrics take a hit as the visitors. Three of LA’s last four opponents have attempted at least 37 pass attempts. We’re predicting that the 49ers will follow a similar blueprint on Thursday night, with Purdy eclipsing 20.5 completions and 30.5 pass attempts versus the Rams.
Matthew Stafford Less 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
If the 49ers hope to turn things around, their defense will need to step up and make some adjustments. We saw them put in the requisite work against the Bears, but they’ll face a more sincere challenge from the visiting Rams on Thursday. Nevertheless, we’re expecting San Francisco to match last week’s energy with another resounding defensive performance. As per our projections, Matthew Stafford could be the player most impacted by this improved play and will have a hard time eclipsing 1.5 touchdown passes.
While they’ve collapsed at the worst possible times, the 49ers’ defense remains one of the best against the pass. They allow the third-fewest yards per game, seventh-fewest completions, and the 12th-lowest opponent completion percentage. Moreover, those have all been crucial in keeping opponents to just 1.3 passing touchdowns per game, including just 1.1 at home.
It’s also worth noting that San Francisco has been much more vulnerable to the ground game this season, particularly when teams get into the red zone. The 49ers give up 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game, tied for the second-worst mark in the NFL. More concerningly, that number has jumped to 2.0 over their past three.
Finally, when it comes to the Rams scoring, Stafford is also poised for regression. The Rams quarterback has thrown for 10 touchdowns over his last four games for a 9.4% scoring rate. That’s more than double his season average of 4.3%, implying that Stafford is due for a correction phase.
Kyren Williams could be in for a scoring surge, but it will come at Stafford’s expense. We’re betting that Stafford comes up short of his passing touchdowns total against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football.
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