All of a sudden, the AFC East isn’t the cakewalk everyone expected it would be for the Buffalo Bills. The New York Jets built some offseason momentum in the futures market, opening the year as the odds-on favorite to win the division. Subsequently, the New England Patriots opened the season with a decisive win over the Cincinnati Bengals, positively impacting their position on the futures board. Now, the Patriots and Jets face off in our third Thursday Night Football contest of the year, kicking off Week 3 of the NFL season. The winner stakes themselves to an early advantage in what will surely be a tightly contested AFC East race.
This article will discuss 2 or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Falcons vs. Eagles
Rhamondre Stevenson Less 71.5 Rushing Yards
A coaching change hasn’t deterred the New England Patriots from their commitment to the run. Through the first two weeks of the season, New England is calling the fifth-highest percentage of run plays. They’re keeping the ball on the ground 57.7% of the time, with Rhamondre Stevenson earning the lion’s share of those touches. After a standout opening week, Stevenson’s effectiveness took a hit against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. With less time to prepare and an imposing Jets defense awaiting him, we’re expecting Stevenson to come up short of his rushing yards total in Week 3.
The Patriots running back toted the ball 25 times for 120 yards in the season opener, following that up with 81 yards on 21 carries in Week 2. That second effort dropped Stevenson’s yards per carry to 4.4 on the season, putting him nearly on par with his career average of 4.5. Still, his true ceiling is closer to the 4.0 yards per carry he had in 2023, implying further correction is anticipated against the Jets.
An ineffective season opener against the San Francisco 49ers has tanked the Jets’ rushing metrics early this season, but last week’s effort should be a sign of things to come. New York held Tony Pollard to 62 rushing yards on 17 carries, equalling 3.6 yards per carry. Tyjae Spears fared no better, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on six attempts.
The Patriots remain committed to the run, but Stevenson’s effectiveness will continue to deteriorate in Week 3. His unforgiving running style doesn’t lend itself to another strong performance on a short turnaround. Moreover, he’s performing above his expected levels and faces a stout Jets defense that can contain opposing running backs. Those factors support that Stevenson will fall below 71.5 rushing yards on Thursday Night Football.
Mike Williams More 2.5 Receptions
Not fully recovered from his ACL injury to open the season, Mike Williams appeared in just eight offensive plays in a Week 1 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. However, the Jets wide receiver took on a more robust role last week against the Tennessee Titans, playing 64.9% of the snaps. That upward trajectory carries him into tonight’s showdown against the Pats, facilitating more than 2.5 receptions.
Williams wasn’t targeted in the loss to the Niners, using his limited snaps to get up to game speed after not playing since Week 3 of last year. But a full week of practice later, Williams was ready to work his way back into the passing attack. The Clemson product was on the field for 37 offensive plays against the Titans, running routes on over 20 of those plays while hauling in his lone reception for 19 yards. We anticipate an increased workload as Williams works his way up the Jets depth chart over the coming weeks.
Additionally, the Patriots’ affinity for zone defense plays into Williams’ strength as a pass catcher. The former first-round pick excels in zone coverage, using his 6’4″ frame as a beacon against mismatches and soft coverage. We saw Geno Smith expose those holes in the first half of last week’s overtime win over the Patriots, throwing for 178 yards and a touchdown en route to 17 points. Aaron Rodgers can follow a similar blueprint on Thursday night, and Williams will be one of his preferred targets.
Williams is trending upwards, and Rodgers will make him a priority against a zone-heavy Patriots defense. More importantly, we expect the Jets wide receiver to make the most of his looks and build off last week’s improved effort. As a result, Williams should have no problem surpassing 2.5 receptions against New England.
Breece Hall More 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Braelon Allen has commanded much of the laudation after last week’s two-touchdown performance, but it’s worth noting that this remains Breece Hall’s backfield. The Iowa State product has outworked Allen in each of the first two weeks of the season, and Hall will be ready to make the most of his opportunities against the Pats.
Not surprisingly, Hall has out-snapped Allen in each of the first two weeks by a significant margin. The rookie played only nine snaps in Week 1, following that up with 20 more last time out. Comparatively, Hall has been on the field for at least 41 snaps in each contest, out-carrying his counterpart by a 30-8 margin. While the Jets duo has each recorded one touchdown, that workload discrepancy should start to yield more touchdowns for Hall, starting in tonight’s intra-divisional battle versus New England.
On the whole, the Pats run defense has looked solid to start the year, but they’ve crumbled inside the red zone. Zack Moss recorded the Bengals only score in Week 1, punching in the football from inside the five-yard line. Zach Charbonnet accomplished the same feat last week, scoring from the one-yard line against the same Pats’ defense. That drops their opponent’s rushing touchdown percentage to 66.7%, tied for third-worst in the NFL.
It may be tempting to back Allen in the touchdown market, but his ceiling isn’t as high as he showed last week. Hall remains the focal point on offense and continues to command most of the touches out of the backfield and in the red zone. We’re expecting Hall to shift the touchdown balance in his favor and find the end zone against a Patriots rush defense that has come up short when it matters most.
